BOZmail – 25th MAY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

SATURDAY MAY 25th 2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stood at 36.0395 points after month 4

Stands at 40.8925 points after month 5

LESS IS MORE: SATURDAY PLAY

3-15 CARTMEL

Should have stuck with the women’s jockey thread Friday! Hey ho. Not too much damage done. And a staggered acca play on Saturday!

The tennis draw for the French Open is out and my portfolio published below along with my rationale article written at the end of April which still stands as my thoughts on the matter! Won’t be doing day by day coverage this year but always play the portfolio in the slams.

My race at Cartmel is the Handicap Chase where my old mucker Morning Royalty lines up. He is on his mark and this represents a step down in class as a chaser and I fancy him a bit albeit that it is a competitive and wide open race where all can be given a chance.

My Cartmel study always starts with the Moffatt horses and this year is particularly pertinent as he comes in with a 100% form in running record and two winners in the past fortnight – one of them at 66/1. A Pit Farm Stables special. He only had five winners all season last year which was a significant dip after double figures the previous three years and Cartmel leading trainer in two of those three years. He has been prone to multi entries in recent times but seems to have ceased that now which makes the tipping and following his stable easier.

Mega Double is interesting second race and Altruism and particularly Boruma in the last but it is Royalty I stay with who has done me favours many times and I pay for the bet with a lay on Inchcolm who has to defy his penalty and didn’t run particularly well on this idiosynchratic track on his only try.

Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on INCHCOLM (around 2.8 ; no greater than 3.3)

0.1pt BACK on MORNING ROYALTY

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This month plays so far:

1st:   -0.455 (-0.455) LAY @ 2.82

2nd:  -0.3    (-0.755) LAY @ 1.6

3rd:   -0.628 (-1.383) LAY @ 2.76 : BACK @ 34.0

4th:   -0.8    (-2.183) LAY @ 3.4 : BACK @ 7.0

5th:   +0.095 (-2.088) LAY @ 1.95 : BACK @ 9.0

6th:   -0.3    (-2.388) LAY @ 2.2

7th:   +0.095 (-2.293) LAY @ 1.94 : BACK @ 5.1

8th:   +0.19  (-2.103) BACK @ 1.95

9th:   -0.825  (-2.928) LAY @ 3.25 : BACK @ 8.4

10th: NO PLAY DAY

11th:  +0.195 (-2.733) LAY @ 2.92

12th:  -0.24  (-2.973) LAY @ 1.6

13th:  +0.52 (-2.453) BACK @ 6.2

14th:   -0.25 (-2.703) LAYS @ 3.5 & 3.9 : BACK @ 4.5

15th:   +0.196(-2.507) LAY @ 4.0

16th:   +0.996 (-1.511) Lay @ 2.62 : BACK @ 9.0

17th:   +0.196 (-1.315) Lay @ 5.00

18th:   -0.46 (-1.775) Lay @ 2.24 : BACK @ 11.0

19th:   +2.19 (+0.415) Lay @ 1.56 : BACK @ 17.0  

20th:   +0.145 (+0.56)   Lay @ 3.5 : BACK @ 6.0  

21st:   -0.332 (+0.228) Lay @ 2.66

22nd:  +0.294 (+0.522) Lay @ 2.4   

23rd:   +0.48 (+1.002) BACK @ 1.96

24th:    -0.215 (+0.787) Lay @ 1.86  

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 105/154 = 68.18% :   BACKS: 27/99 = 27.27%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Get out the Gate

Shoal Bay

Commodore Barry

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Moonlight Spirit – Entered for the King Edward,Ascot (June 21)

Eightsome Reel

Dee Ex Bee – Entered for Ascot Gold Cup (June 20)

Sir Dragonet- Entered for King Edward (June 21) & Eclipse (July 6)

Raise You

Charl Brune

Barney Roy

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 12.3429 points.

Staggered acca number 10: (LEG 5)

4-50 YORK – LAY on ARCTIC FOX

Time to test your staggered acca mettle. I’m looking at around a 2/1 lay and so at least a point and a bit plus with no more than a 2.3429 point liability for me. You don’t have to play of course if the level of layout scares you.

Simply draw a line under the last leg and start again here with a more modest stake if that seems more your bag.

I’m bullish about the race however. The Fahey horse has a lot of negatives including step up in class,penalty to carry for winning an only ordinary race, uninspiring jockey booking, stable not overly firing (below 50% and only 5% winners), a Gosden horse with plenty of improvement in him ahead in the market and, most crucially, he is held for me by Quintada on Doncaster running over a mile last year. Quintada has run in better company since and might be my idea of the winner with another Johnston runner in there to help control the pace. The staggered acca lay however is on Arctic Fox and work hard to keep the price around 2/1. Good luck to us all.

BOZ

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz

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THE BOZ’s 2019 FRENCH OPEN OUTRIGHT PORTFOLIO:

PLAYER                PRICE TAKEN HEDGED AT     CURRENT P/L

Simona HALEP1pt LAY@5.6
-5.2
ANISIMOVA0.1pt BACK@120.0
+12.4
QIANG WANG0.1pt BACK @340.0
+34.4
Iga SWIATEK0.1pt BACK @151.0
+15.5
VAN UYTVANCK0.1pt BACK @1000
+100.4
Polona HERCOG0.1pt BACK @1000
+100.4
LauraSIEGEMUND0.1pt BACK @1000
+100.4
ROF

+0.4
Azarenka (3rd Rd)






You will already have seen my ante-post article to which I am sticking. I have now seen & scrutinised the draw and my strategy and staking are thus.All prices except for Swiatek have been achieved on the exchange. Swiatek is best price with SKYBET. Azarenka has drawn a very tough first two rounds v Ostapenko and Osaka so I leave her to bet only if she gets to third round. Anisimova, Wang & Swiatek are all in a tight same segment of the draw and only one can progress to second week so all chances to hedge those three should be taken. I’m less keen to hedge Siegemund early as her early draw is benign. Hopefully she gets to 3rd round with the +100 still intact. You may get better than a 999/1 on her aswell once the fixed odds books are complete. She and Anisimova are my biggest hopes for a swinging bet.

Halep continues to play well whilst still looking very short to defend all the way at 5.6 but I have constructed a half stake beginning here because she has an easyish first two rounds.

Her price is expected to contract by that stage where I may well take another point and double what is left of my outsider backs. Also reserve the right to insert an extra one or two once we see what goes down!

Because I will be away on holiday for the second week of the tournament, I am not posting match bets this year in the French Open. Some I know don’t want that anyways. I do plan however to do a comprehensive day by day coverage of Wimbledon.   

Updates on the above will be posted as and when and because I will be away, may not be comprehensive so if you are playing, make sure you understand the concept and if in doubt, hedge when possible! The big win for low liability can happen. More likely is a few points profit from careful bank management.   Good Luck. BOZ

This is the article I wrote end of April if you missed it.

GARRULOUS AT THE GARROS

The talk of the tennis world in the run up to the French Open fortnight which starts on the 26th of May is that the eighteen WTA tournaments of 2019 have yielded eighteen different winners! Never before has women’s tennis been so open – so chock full of champions and potential champions. The strength in depth in this year’s draw will be unparalleled. Does that make finding the winner harder? Well yes it does but it also means that for betting purposes, you can largely ignore the premise that the winner will be an unbackable price. Pretty much everyone is on offer at value! That’s how open an Open it is.

So just a question of working through your perceptions and opinions to get you down to a portfolio to take against the field. Garrulous Gary is here to talk you through his!

As a start, I already have an opinion that the French Open women’s winner is THE tennis bet of the year if you can nail it. Almost always an outsider or a value middle pricer. The favourite has won just once in the last 20 years. And The Boz has nailed his two longest tennis outright winners here – Francesca Schiavone at 125/1 in 2010 and Jelena Ostapenko at 80/1 in 2017. And I got me some corkers for 2019!

First off I want to start with the clay court performance table. You have to first acknowledge the surface. It is the only tennis Major played on clay and the game is distinctly different thereon. Players like Sara Errani, Lara Arruabarrena and the recent Lugano winner Polona Hercog come into their own on clay. Not really competitive at top class level on any other surface. Makes again for tremendous betting price anomalies when the crafty clay courter is matched up against the talented boom-boom hitter. On every other surface the boom-boom hitter prevails and thus the rankings and odds compilers reflect that fact whilst the surface gives serious chance to the underdog specialist on clay at the monster price. It is a head to head scenario you see over and over during the clay court season and much betting advantage to be gained.

That said however, the players also know this fact. The big hitters don’t just accept it and lie down at Roland Garros. There has been a big movement to master the surface and ally it to the power over the past thirty years or so. Pioneered by Maria Sharapova and Serena Williams who have both won the title more than once and in very recent times, we have seen arch hopeless case on clay Madison Keys climb into the surface top ten. And 2017 US champion Sloane Stephens also made final here last year. She had no previous form on clay. Makes for a fascinating tournament as the class fights back and it is there we start by looking at the WTA table for top ten players on clay over the past two years:

PLAYER    : RANKING  : CURRENT PRICE :   CLAY WIN% : WIN-LOSS RATIO:

1.Simona Halep          2  5/1   72.2 16:3

2.Kiki Bertens              7 16/1                          69.0 15:5

3.Elina Svitolina          6 12/1                          64.6 9:3

4.Garbine Muguruza 19                       14/1 64.9             7:4

5.Jelena Ostapenko  29     50/1     63.9 3:4

6.Madison Keys*        14  25/1     64.9 11:4

7.Sloane Stephens*    8   16/1     59.6 12:5

8.Karolina Pliskova*    4 20/1                          57.7 12:4

9.Caroline Garcia       21 50/1                          58.8 13:5

10.Petra Kvitova*         3 16/1                          66.4 15:3

The next ten on the list to make a top 20 goes 11.Caroline Wozniacki*12. Anastasia Sevastova 13. Daria Kasatkina 14. Samantha Stosur 15. Anna Kontaveit 16. Maria Sharapova 17.Elise Mertens 18.Laura Siegemund 19.Krystina Mladenovic 20.Irina Begu

And there you have your current top twenty players on the surface which is a useful guide to keep handy if you are backing and laying matches round by round. All of these have achieved in recent times on the surface. Those with asterisks are the ones in The Boz’s opinion who are far from natural players on the surface who can thus be opposed when the chips are down and the opposition is strong enough.

Two major omissions from the list. Serena Williams has hardly played on clay in the time frame and has moved in any case now into wild card category when it comes to the majors. She still needs one more win to bust the all time record so she’ll keep going you’d think despite the obvious negatives that now come into her game when assessing her as potential winner. It always was a case of you never know with Serena but if you opposed her anywhere you opposed her on clay. 17/2 to win in 2019 but that is short and not value despite her having won the title three times and twice in the past six years. The reason for doubting the wisdom of laying her at the start in 2019 is her tweet to Tiger Woods when he won the Masters Golf along the lines of ‘You’ve given me hope we oldies can still show the upstarts a thing or two!’ Never needed much to get Serena motivated and that makes her dangerous this year. She is a watch and see brief for The Boz before the tournament begins.

The other omission is world number one Naomi Osaka – winner of the last two slams – who is a self confessed ‘hopeless on clay’. She is 16/1 and a safe oppose if you like that sort of thing. You can expect her to start improving on the surface now as Keys and Stephens have done in recent years but not rapidly enough to expect her to win here. The world of women’s tennis will suddenly become very unopen again should Osaka win here. Tennis potential is there of course so The Boz won’t be risking the lay at 16/1 but all pointers suggest that she’ll need more time yet to master the surface.

The value bet in that department and my first suggestion for the portfolio is Victoria Azarenka. At 50/1 in the outrights, she interests me currently playing well in the Stuttgart tournament as I write. Check out how she got on there because my rationale is thus. She fits the same curve that lead to Maria Sharapova coming to win at the Garros. Traditionally a hard court specialist pretty much another ‘hopeless on the sliding you need to play clay’, she has won her slams and now makes her way back into the game as a Mother who is maturing slowly again and regaining some of her old force and may well see clay as the surface where she can bring that mental experience of winning the big one to the fore. If she can master the physicality of the clay court, which of course she has played on for years now and looks to be finally getting to grips with. Sharapova was famously called ‘a cow on ice’ in her early years on clay looking as ungainly and unnatural on the surface as any you ever saw. To her credit that mental fortitude, tennis class, and dogged determination to overcome the obstacle combined to help her lift the Trophy twice. She took Chris Evert’s advice to practice skiing and rollerblading to help with the ankle dexterity necessary to prevail on clay. Azarenka looks to have taken the same advice and with her champion’s attitude, her newfound maturity and her tennis class,she looks long to me at 50/1 to go down the same line.

(n.b.Keep an eye on that price. Had to retire from Stuttgart with a shoulder injury after playing above her usual clay standard in defeating Pliskova and taking set lead v Kontaveit. The injury would be a worry so must be factored in. Other than that, her play and mentality looks right and her price will now drift. Check out any more results before the Garros begins and hold bet until it is confirmed she will be competing)  

The main two areas to look to try to identify the longshot winner are the young up and comings who the bookmakers haven’t got a grip on yet (which saw Ivanovic’s win in 2008, Muguruza’s in 2016 and Ostapenko’s in 2017) and the elderly and experienced clay specialist who is playing top stuff in the lead up (which led to Schiavone’s win in 2010). The latter is the more difficult to pinpoint and with Schiavone I only put her up as a back to lay initially because I was clear there was no way in the heavens she would ever beat Serena Williams who was scorching hot favourite that year. You have to watch and see with those sorts both in terms of the draw they are handed and the facts that emerge as you watch them play the early rounds. Schiavone revealed in her third round win post match interview that she had gone on an intensive gym regime in the three weeks leading up to help build her biceps and leg stamina and did ten trademark on court push ups after each success to advertise the fact to her powerplay opponents who would traditionally wipe her off any court. She was staying in rallies longer, had been in big winning form in the lead up tournaments and put the fear of the Almighty in Wozniacki in the quarters (suffered an ankle twist and lost her grip on the playing through Schiavone that she could usually do with ease at that time) and Dementieva in the semis (Dementieva famously walked off court weeping after losing a winning position in the first set tie-break whilst Schiavone did push ups for the crowds). Even that would not have got past Serena but remarkably Stosur did that for her by exiting the great one with the best win of her career. Stosur had also been in the gym beefing up to get her past Serena which paid dividends in her case later when she won the US open.

I had held off most of my laying the Schiavone price when I saw the push ups but come the final v Stosur, for which the Australian was 1/7 favourite, I did weaken a tad and did not forsee the final tactic in the Schiavone armoury. She presumably couldn’t see herself out powering the newfound Serena conqueror’s strength shot so she simply switched to playing at the net – almost unheard of on clay at the time and now – and nailed 16 out of 20 net volleys early in the first set. A bewildered Stosur completely lost her way and started panicking which resulted in her power plays all missing the lines and Schiavone won easy in straight sets – as good a case of combining brains and brawn in a sporting context as you’ll ever see – for what remains the biggest upset slam win of the modern era.

Who could do that this year? Two to consider. Polona Hercog is the first I put up as the winner of the Lugano tournament this year and a confirmed clay specialist from over the years. The Slovenian is 28 now and thus at that right mature age if a breakthrough is to happen for her. Highest ranking ever has been 35 back in 2012 and generally been in a slump and in and out of injuries in recent times. She does have a height advantage (six footer) and her serve can be influential when in form and there is little doubt she can hold her own with the big guns on her day. A recent showdown with Halep in Miami showed her in her best light and proved the current form is hot. Hasn’t played since Lugano so worth keeping an eye on any more clay tournaments she takes in during the run up to the Garros. If she stays in form and is offered in the 200/1 or greater price category, she’ll be on my back to lay list at the start.

The other senior player I throw in despite not having shown any 2019 form as of yet resides at number 18 on the top twenty clay courters of recent times and is the 31 year old German Laura Siegemund. Same criteria applies to her. If you see her showing form in the clay court tournament lead up and can get some 200/1 plus she can be added to the mix. She is basically an out and out clay specialist who has troubled many over the years on the surface without ever really looking likely to make that ultimate breakthrough. She probably needs that same desire and insight that drove Schiavone to do it late on but her presence in this top twenty is what inspires me to keep an eye on her this year. That is my first clue to something that may be boiling up with her. See a couple more of those and I might start getting very interested. She peaked rankings wise in 2016/17 when she reached 27 and 29 before falling away again last year and has shown no sign of revival yet this year.

Just one to take note of if something should start sparking. Last chance saloon really now for her age wise.

I would also put my annual punt on Alison Van Uytvanck in at this point. She is 25 years old now and always been on my list as possible future French Open winner. Her landmark win over Muguruza at Wimbledon was the first sign that she may be moving toward realising her potential as a more mature winner and her current form was advertised with a win in Budapest in February. She hasn’t done a lot since and is another just to see if her clay court form sparks in the run up. It may be that she is now looking more like specialising on grass and hard court. Still has some troubles with consistency and I wonder about her desire and mental fortitude still. She has the game however. I’m committed to being there if and when she makes that biggest of breakthroughs.

And so to the youngsters who have the opposite end of the spectrum and the whole world before them. There are plenty in this category. The Chinese continue their progress following on from Li Na’s landmark win here in 2011 and Qiang Wang and Yufun Wang both have to be kept a close eye on. Australia’s Astra Sharma and Ukraine’s Dayana Yastremska are both making mini- waves whilst Canadian Bianca Andreescu has already made the surfsize waves and is short priced and 23rd ranked. May have already missed the boat on the 18 year old from Ontario.

Still at value prices are the two 17 year olds who started off the 2019 clay season with stunning results namely USA’s Amanda Anisimova who also shone in the Australian Open and is yet still available at 80/1. Her win in Bogota showed a competence on clay and an all round evidence of a star on the rise. She has poise and athletic grace a plenty and no mean share of that American self confidence and cocksureness so that little already seems to phase her. She is really on that list of will win a Slam somewhere sometime and again if she is going to do it young as Ivanovic and Ostapenko did, you get the feel it may be at The Garros. And this year not out of the question. The advice with her is to study her draw when it appears.

My wildcard exciting name for the future though comes to fill in the Polish hole in International women’s tennis with the absence from the circuit of Agnieska Radwanska. Her name is the wildly iconic tennis semantic name of Iga Swiatek and if that doesn’t appear in the headlines in years to come I’m a Dutchman (which I ain’t). Her efforts to reach the final at Lugarno were spectacular. All the creativity,ingenuity and guile of Radwanska with a dash of gung ho on top and speed and youthful vigor in every shot she chased down.

Come the final v Hercog – her first such experience in pretty much her first WTA tourney – she went awol in the first few games and played like a park amateur with shots going wildly into the crowd and over the roof! Then she settled down and Hercog had to scrap and was visibly outclassed for a while before the Polish wobbles re-emerged and the senior nerve was able to hold. Saw enough however to suggest that the reigning Wimbledon junior champ is going to make her mark on the game.

Her commitment is like that of Ostapenko. She backs herself and takes monumental risks hence the results she is already getting. Because underlying is a serious class currently in the guise of raw talent and awaiting only the feather touch of maturity. Watch her at the Garros and at SW19 and for years to come. Her transformation to tennis swan may be ahead of us sooner rather than later.

And finally a word on the defending champ Simona Halep who carries the burden of 5/1 favourite for this year’s tournament. Her success last year was much applauded and deserved after years of being the nearly lady. It was followed by injury and amicable separation from coach but she showed up at the start of 2019 and played a classic in defeat against Serena in Melbourne. The injury and coaching doubts still surround her and whilst the latter doesn’t concern me as she shows tremendous personal maturity and strength now that the champions mantle is upon her, the former is typically clouded in tennis mystery and must cast doubt on her ability to defend her title. She remains No 1 in the clay court table and will be hard to shift but at 5/1, she represents this year’s lay to fund the speculative bets on the outsiders – The Boz’s prefered tennis portfolio play with the proviso that as well as garrulously talking my way through the tournament, I will also be hedging back and forth on prices as I do the trademark observer’s act of watching and seeing and adjusting portfolio accordingly. Promises to be another classic – as open an Open as I can ever remember.

Recommendations:

2pt LAY on SIMONA HALEP

0.25pt BACKS on VIKTORIA AZARENKA

                                POLONA HERCOG

                                LAURA SIEGEMUND

                                QIANG WANG

                                AMANDA ANISIMOVA

                                IGA SWIATEK

                                ALISON VAN UYTVANCK


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