BOZmail – 25th MARCH

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

MONDAY MARCH 25th 2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stands at 27.28 points after month 3

LESS IS MORE: MONDAY PLAY

2-45 WINCANTON

I hope you got your prices Sunday. Quite challenging at the moment because either I’m noticing the early tissue errors or they are noticing that I’m noticing and the shorties are all taking a drift (and even winning as Kapatuna did!). During these phases you really have to work to get the best price you can and early placing is never a bad idea such times. I’m doing a mandatory 50% immediately at the moment and have done a few 100% ones in the past week just to be sure I’m getting value. Wasn’t only me of course who knew Captain Zebo was gonna run a big race. The world and his wife poured on just before the off so you definitely did right if you backed him early. I only got on at an amalgamated 4.02 but some of you made 5.0 and better I note. Well done you. You’re getting the hang now!

Those of you who like your stats might also like to know that LIM has just broken its second record since coming under this umbrella. Following the 18 day winning lay streak of late December/early January which was the longest so far recorded, I have just posted my first strike rate of lays per 100 at over 70%. Despite being at it every day for nearly five years now, looks like I’m still improving. On the lay side anyways!

Just need a few more cast iron backs so I can finally get the staggered acca up and firing!

But nothing much doing again Monday and all I could do to find a race to play in. This is it. The only UK LIM qualifier and a two horse race in all but name between the two champion trainers. Secret Investor has already let us down once in the Bags Groove race you may remember. Sloppy jumping has got into his form and if he does that again here, Jenkins would probably win easy. Because it is Wincanton however and because of what we saw at Kelso Saturday in the line of how Nicholls can get even his most wayward charges to win in the end, I would side with Secret Investor here. He has the better time figures over this distance and has been competing in better class that this. Also has the better jockey (and gets weight) and whilst Jenkins was a classy enough hurdler, he has also always been a bit of an underachiever and not one I’d want to back at odds on. Actually probably toss of a coin who starts favourite so working hard on getting best price will again be in order. And, due to the uncompetitive nature of the race, just a small play on the day.

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on JENKINS (around 2.0: not greater than 2.75)

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This month plays so far:

1st: + 0.19   (+0.19)

2nd: + 0.24  (+0.43)

3rd: + 0.2     (+0.63)

4th:  – 0.32   (+0.31) LAY @ 2.1

5th:  +0.19  (+0.5)  LAY @ 3.75

6th:  +1.30  (+1.80) LAY @ 2.99: BACK @ 6.4

7th:   -0.195 (+1.605) LAY @ 1.78

8th:   -0.3125 (+1.2925) LAY @1.65

9th:   +0.19 (+1.4825) LAY @4.2

10th: +0.143 (+1.6255) LAY @ 1.6: BACK @ 8.0

11th:  -0.28  (+1.3455) LAY @ 1.72: BACK @ 11.0

12th:  -0.8   (+0.5455) LAY @ 3.0: BACK @ 65.0

13th:  +5.19 (+5.7355) LAY @ 1.9: BACK @ 51.0

14th:  +0.19 (+5.9255) LAYS @ 3.2 & 4.8

15th:   -0.22 (+5.7055) LAY @1.88

16th:   +0.09 (+5.7955) LAY @ 3.3 : BACK @ 34.0

17th:   +0.994 (+6.7895)LAY @ 2.28 : BACKS @ 2.76 & 8.0

18th:   +1.089 (+7.8785)LAY @ 2.16 : BACK @ 3.75

19th:   +0.24 (+8.1185) LAY @ 3.5

20th:   +0.09 (+8.2085) LAY @ 3.2 : BACK @ 8.0

21st:    +0.24 (+8.4485) LAY @ 1.82

22nd:   +0.14 (+8.5885) LAY @ 2.5 (in running): BACK @ 5.8

23rd:    -0.66 (+7.9285) LAY @ 2.4 : BACK @ 34.0

24th:    +0.596(+8.5245) LAY @ 2.5 : BACK @ 4.02

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 71/100 = 71% : BACKS: 17/65 = 26.15%

HORSES OF INTEREST TO TRADE NEXT TIME OUT:

Uno Valoroso

Southfield Vic

Tokaramore

THE MIGHTY ASH runs SUNDAY AT EXETER and will be a trade play.

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.5 points.

Staggered acca number 7: (LEG 1)

Will shout as soon as the next good thing comes along.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

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