BOZmail – 26th MARCH

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

TUESDAY MARCH 26th 2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stands at 27.28 points after month 3

LESS IS MORE: TUESDAY PLAY

4-00 HEREFORD

This is definitely not an easy race to read with several imponderables in it. It however has fascinated me on a day with not that many options again. The fascination comes from the participation of Ruby Yeats who regulars will know I have tracked for nigh on two and a bit years now waiting for her next win which at time of writing, still hasn’t happened! I had crossed her off my to follow list but her presence in this race does at least give me a handle to work from whether I end up recommending that we lay her,back her or use her as LIM cover. All options are easier to assess when it is a horse you know intimately and me and Ruby go back a long way. To the 11th December 2016 at Southwell to be precise and in her NTO she was a very creditable second to Verdana Blue and I was sure that was the top form it has turned out. For a while, I thought she might become a champion hurdle contender herself and it is interesting that she is not. Nor anywhere near. And yet she came a close second – at Hereford – behind the winner of the 2018 Xmas hurdle – when Verdana Blue beat the champion Buveur D’air. Like I say, fascinating stuff sometimes, perplexing even, reading raceform.

I digress. All you wanna know is whether or not I’m on her side on Tuesday and the answer is yes. She takes some winding up but this is a long race and Josh Moore on board and he seems to get best out of her. Sensitive hands for a sensitive woman and all that. Gary Moore stable not amongst the winners still at the moment but 50% of stable string running to form so not really a question mark there whereas both McCain and Williams’ yards are running well below 50%. Only Neil King’s stable are in form and he runs two so that could well be a tip. Little Millie would have been Bryony Frost’s mount but she remains a hurdle frustration and without Ms Frost, I pass on her and consider Silent Steps the value danger. She’ll be good LIM cover however as I give Ruby one more go just because I like her! Sometimes it does get personal and I shall enjoy cheering her on to win if it occurs. Mainly though, Donald McCain has the fav again and his stable continues to struggle and this one has to carry the stopper 12 stone seven weight. Abie gets seven off but still must give Ruby 10lbs and based on times and form on the advertised ground, that looks a big ask.

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on SAME CIRCUS (around 3.8: no greater than 4.2)

0.15pt BACK on RUBY YEATS

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This month plays so far:

1st: + 0.19   (+0.19)

2nd: + 0.24  (+0.43)

3rd: + 0.2     (+0.63)

4th:  – 0.32   (+0.31) LAY @ 2.1

5th:  +0.19  (+0.5)  LAY @ 3.75

6th:  +1.30  (+1.80) LAY @ 2.99: BACK @ 6.4

7th:   -0.195 (+1.605) LAY @ 1.78

8th:   -0.3125 (+1.2925) LAY @1.65

9th:   +0.19 (+1.4825) LAY @4.2

10th: +0.143 (+1.6255) LAY @ 1.6: BACK @ 8.0

11th:  -0.28  (+1.3455) LAY @ 1.72: BACK @ 11.0

12th:  -0.8   (+0.5455) LAY @ 3.0: BACK @ 65.0

13th:  +5.19 (+5.7355) LAY @ 1.9: BACK @ 51.0

14th:  +0.19 (+5.9255) LAYS @ 3.2 & 4.8

15th:   -0.22 (+5.7055) LAY @1.88

16th:   +0.09 (+5.7955) LAY @ 3.3 : BACK @ 34.0

17th:   +0.994 (+6.7895)LAY @ 2.28 : BACKS @ 2.76 & 8.0

18th:   +1.089 (+7.8785)LAY @ 2.16 : BACK @ 3.75

19th:   +0.24 (+8.1185) LAY @ 3.5

20th:   +0.09 (+8.2085) LAY @ 3.2 : BACK @ 8.0

21st:    +0.24 (+8.4485) LAY @ 1.82

22nd:   +0.14 (+8.5885) LAY @ 2.5 (in running): BACK @ 5.8

23rd:    -0.66 (+7.9285) LAY @ 2.4 : BACK @ 34.0

24th:    +0.596(+8.5245) LAY @ 2.5 : BACK @ 4.02

25th:    +0.24 (+8.7645) LAY @ 1.99

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 72/101 = 71.28% :   BACKS: 17/65 = 26.15%

HORSES OF INTEREST TO TRADE NEXT TIME OUT:

Uno Valoroso

Southfield Vic

Tokaramore

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.5 points.

Staggered acca number 7: (LEG 1)

Will shout as soon as the next good thing comes along.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

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