BOZmail – 25th JUNE

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

THURSDAY JUNE 25th  2020 

*************************************************

 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 19.0207 points (-0.9793 points)

*************************************************

TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 12.876 points (+4.876 points)

*************************************************

OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

*************************************************

SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

******************************************

Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

*************************************************

BOZmail 2020 cycle PART ONE(1/2 – 31/5) overall profit = +4.2876 points

                                      PART TWO(1/6 – 31/1 )  overall profit = +3.4277 points

PART ONE LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 25/41 = 60.97%  Backs: 9/29 = 31.03%

PART TWO LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 7/13 = 53.84%  Backs : 1/6 = 16.67%

************************************************************************

LESS IS MORE: 

NO LIM PLAY ON THURSDAY

Wednesday’s Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on KRAKEN POWER 

Laid @ 2.0 : Hedged 0.14pt @ 3.2 (averaged) : P/L = +0.108

I thought the money would come for Salsoul but in fact it was Bergerac and quite hefty in the hour before the off. I slanted my hedge toward the fav winning as he became the value being the experienced runner in the race. Bergerac hit as low as 3.4 but it was a red herring right enough although the Jardine stable form – the reason I was against at too short – has been poor hence the gamble on the doubt until he became a value on the form element. All about the prices you take and the reasons why.And so bringing my LIM deficit in under a point.

Been a bit like pulling teeth the LIM trade clawback and this last one came out not the worst albeit you had to be patient to profit properly. Big lesson. It continues the process. Has its critics I know but those pulling back a bit of LIM loss with me are learning at the coal face so to speak. Two winners and two losers for traditional LIMs in this phase and a profit playing traditionally but more achieved in four successful trades (and with no losing risk) and a couple of the bad four on the losing run erased now. In this game it is and always has been as much about dealing with losing as celebrating winning. And worry not those sitting out and watching us suffer, we’re getting back to the celebrating winning again soon I promise!

The first sign of a proper BOZ meet after the UK restart on Thursday as Bath swings back into action. Too many runners still for LIM so we’ll continue our sit out and I haven’t found a reliable trade play either for Thursday but not an entirely blank day as shortlisters will know because we actually swing back into serious action there with our first traditional official meeting since March 14th at Fontwell. Ascot was an experiment and not an unsuccessful one finding a couple of 20/1+ BSP winners and ending level stakes up over five days to BSP prices (and just under break even to ISP) and acting as further strong litmus test for The Boz as he waits for the prevailing wind to turn in his favour so that we can set sail properly again. Fontwell,Sedgefield,Newton Abbot et al are not far away again now and this meet at Bath has been the first in three months that I’ve run a deep clean rule over. Picked every bone I have and not found any certs nor any LIM qualifiers but a couple of halfway house longshots to whet the appetite nevertheless. Its more of a litmus test meet so if you are sitting out June as I know many of you are, don’t let me tempt you back in prematurely. I’ve already made that mistake twice. Watch and see is a good policy at the moment without question of doubt.

This is a trio of tasty longshots however to play on our occasional acca facility to very small money. Been sat unused on our heading since the restart and time to dust it down and give it a whirl perhaps.  Here’s my three purloined from the shortlist. Make of them what you will.

(will be posted early morning Thursday after final ground and weather cheeks and stable whisper alerts completed).

 LIM Scores in June:

5th:  -0.355 (-0.355) Lay @ 2.02 : Back @ 9.4

6th-8th: NO BETS

9th:  +0.048 (-0.307) Lay @ 2.8 : Back @ 14.0

10th: +0.0735 (-0.2335) Lay @ 6.0

11th:  -0.23     (-0.4635) Lay @ 2.5 : Back @ 6.2

12th: +0.098  (-0.3655*) Lay @ 1.66 * arithmetic mistake corrected

13th: -0.24     (-0.6055) Lays @ 3.2 & 4.4 : Backs @ 5.0 & 7.0

14th: -0.216  (-0.8215) Lay @ 2.44

15th: -0.408  (-1.2295) Lay @ 2.54 : Backs @ 4.4 & 9.4

16th: NO BET

17th: NO BET

18th: NO BET

19th: -0.09  (-1.3195) Lay @ 1.45

20th: NO BET

21st: +0.1048 (-1.2147) Lays @ 1.33 & 14.0 :Backs @1.6 & 28.0

22nd: +0.0784 (-1.1363) Lay @ 2.12 : Backs @ 2.4 & 3.15

23rd:  +0.049  (-1.0873) Lay @ 1.98 : Back @ 2.5

24th:  +0.108  (-0.9793) Lay @ 2.0 : Back @ 3.2

******************************************************************

BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Frankly Darling – Entered for The Oaks (July 4)

Muker – Entered for York (Aug 20)

Significantly – Entered for York (Aug 20) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

Malotru

English King – Entered for The Derby (July 4)

Ransom

Virgin Snow – Entered at Newcastle (June 27)

Collinsbay – Entered for Chepstow (June 30) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

Uncle Jumbo – Entered for Newbury(July 19)&York(Aug 20)&Doncaster (Sep 10)

On My Way

Battleground – Entered for Doncaster (Sep 10)

**********************************************************************************

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *