BOZmail 25th JULY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

SATURDAY JULY 25th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 20.5468 points (+0.5468 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 14.2305 points (+6.2305 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.385 points (-0.615 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.03 points)

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BOZmail 2020 cycle PART ONE(1/2 – 31/5) overall profit  = +4.2876 points

                                      PART TWO(1/6 – 31/1 )  overall profit = +5.6633 points

                                          BOZmail 2020 overall score = +9.9509 points

PART ONE LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 25/41 = 60.97%  Backs: 9/29 = 31.03%

PART TWO LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 28/37 = 75.67%  Backs : 2/14 = 14.28%

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LESS IS MORE: 

Friday’s Recommendation:

0.15pt LAY on SOLDIER OF LOVE (around 3.0. Take best price you can get)

0.075pt BACK on MR MAFIA (around 3.75 or better if possible) 

Trade play: Laid @2.3  (averaged) : Hedged  : P/L = +pts

                      Back@5.0                       : Hedged  :  P/L = +pts

Total Trade P/L = +               pts     (+0.3383pts)

 Non Trade Play P/L = -0.27pts     (+0.1535pts)

4-3 after a losing day for the non traders. I’m blaming old foe STD who used to cost us a fortune with his bad jumps at the last. Managed two for us at the Abbot on both Ashutor and Flying Verse! Mr Mafia was a disappointment but the market knew the result again which has been a big feature of this post lockdown period. Something to do with off course SPs no doubt. Bookmakers in control on their computers instead of having to field the money on the course.

5-10 NEWMARKET

Internet problems at BOZ towers so an abbreviated service at the moment. Stats will be updated soon as I’m back online. If you have trade figures for the LIM play and can let me have them, that would be helpful. We were on traditional backs only! Meanwhile, Saturday’s LIM play is a flat only one and although I stay in the traditional because I’m keen on the lay, keeping stakes small but having a proper LIM punt on the back which is outsider Sexy Beast. Not shown much in recent form but all the others have mark issues to overcome of one form or another. Favourite is up for his win LTO and also looks to me to be a two mile horse who traditionally struggles to quicken when pace of the race is on. Any one of the others could come past him in the final two furlongs so the main play is the lay on the fav with a small back on the value outsider of the field who is feasible off the mark if he is the one in the field most primed for the race. The others do all have mark issues that could stop them winning.

Recommendation:

0.15pt LAY on MONDAIN ( around 2.8 and lower if you can get it. A tad higher no problem if it has to be)

0.05pt BACK on SEXY BEAST (around 15.0)

 LIM Scores in July:

1st:  +0.1054   (+0.1054) Lays @ 2.22 & 2.4 : Backs @ 3.1 & 2.56

2nd: -0.126      (-0.0206) Lay @ 1.48 : Backs @ 16.0 & 40.0

3rd:  +0.0232   (+0.0026) Lay @ 1.7 : Back @ 1.96

4th:   +0.1313  (+0.1339) Lay @ 2.76 : Back @ 4.0

5th:   -0.1         (+0.0339) Back @ 3.0

6th:   NO BET

7th:   +0.098   (+0.1319) Lay @ 2.5

8th & 9th: NO BET

10th: +0.1225 (+0.2544) Lay@ 3.05 : Back @ 5.5

11th: +0.0245 (+0.2789) Lay@ 4.0 : Back @ 5.4

12th: +0.098  (+0.3769) Lay@3.75

13th: +0.098  (+0.4749) Lay@3.08 : Back @ 4.13

14th: +0.049  (+0.5239) Lay@3.6 : Back @ 13.5

15th: NO BET

16th: -0.245  (+0.2789) Lay @ 1.98 

17th: + 0.0147 (+0.2936) Lay @ 3.0 : Back @ 3.3

18th:  +0.0294 (+0.323) Lay @ 3.2 : Back @ 4.0

19th:  +0.098  (+0.421) Lay @ 2.8 : Back @ 8.6

20th:  +0.01    (+0.431) Lay @ 2.26 : Back @ 2.8

21st:  +0.0735(+0.5045) Lay @ 2.7 : Back @ 8.0

22nd: +0.1715 (+0.676) Lay @ 2.6 : Back @4.6

23rd:  +0.098   (+0.774) Lay @ 2.26

24th:   -0.27     (+0.504) Lay @ 2.3 : Back @ 5.0

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker – Entered for York ( Aug 20)

Significantly – Entered for York (Aug 20) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

Malotru 

English King 

Ransom

Virgin Snow 

Collinsbay – Entered for Ascot (July 25) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

Uncle Jumbo – Entered for York (Aug 20) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

On My Way – Entered for Ascot (July 26)

Battleground – Entered for Doncaster (Sep 10) & Curragh (Aug 22&Sep13)

Waseem Faris 

Little Chance

Samwell (FR)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

Alicestar

TO FOLLOW HORSE TO TRADE on SATURDAY:

4-45 Ascot – COLLINSBAY @ 9/4 – 0.1pt BACK

Take the best prices you can get and hedge as appropriate when preferential odds are on offer.

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Check My Pulse 

Balagan 

Ashutor 

Sangha River 

Captain Tom Cat 

Beholden 

Lord Condi – Entered for Market Rasen (July 27)

Saint Sam (FR)

Rubytwo

Pisgah Pike

El Presente

Hiconic

For Pleasure

Young Wolf

Sirobbie

Little Jessture

NH HORSES TO TRADE ON FRIDAY:

7-05 NEWTON ABBOT – ASHUTOR @ 3/1 – 0.1pt BACK -2nd

Back @ 4.3 : No Hedge or Market Watch Possible : P/L = -0.1pt

8-35 NEWTON ABBOT – BEHOLDEN @4/6 – 0.1pt BACK

Back @ 1.72 : Hedged 0.15pt @ 1.3 : P/L =  +0.049pts

Harry Cobden gave up the ride on Ashutor feeling unwell and The Boz couldn’t get any hedge bets on or market watch done after 2pm Friday. Early bets done last night is all I’m settling to. The virus has now reached BOZ Towers it would seem. Perfect! Just in time for Cartmel weekend! Actually getting this posted to you best we can from the car park at the Fire Station. Cribbing off their wifi !!

If you don’t hear from me for a week, you’ll know it’s BTs fault! We were out of action for a week a few years back when the masts melted after being hit by lightning! We do get weird Lake District weather round here although not been anything strange round here today. Internet went off around 2pm and hasn’t been back on since. BT reporting that their computers are down!

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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