BOZmail – 25th JANUARY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

 

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

 

FRIDAY JANUARY 25th 2019

 

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 25.5 points after month 1

 

LESS IS MORE: FRIDAY PLAY

2-40 HUNTINGDON

Oh I do hate January and it is LIM’s most trying month for the reasons you saw in yesterday’s race. Only play corrupted again by withdrawals and the terrible curse of the heavily gambled favourite evacuating its bowels at the stalls. If you saw it you hedged I hope. That trainer is on my list of spotted several times at it and The Boz has put his stat based suspicions in print for the February edition of Betting Insiders for those of you who see that. May not have made much difference as the horse seemed to handle the surface ok and was obviously a class above. Only solace is that I got the staking right and not much damage done. Just got to grind your teeth and get through the month. It is latter January that is worst. Some to follow horses to concentrate on these next two days though if the weather allows us to play so maybe some respite.

This is a mighty competitive mares listed event and a chance can be given to all of one sort or another. I have abandoned trying to find a lay (both Doncaster qualifiers were equally horrible) and concentrated on our to follow entry Magic of Light who steps back in trip but had a nice warm up over hurdles LTO and my main rationale would be the presence of Jessica Harrington and Robbie Power on mainland Britain again. She rarely bothers unless very keen on chance. The horse is about stamina so might just get caught out for speed by one or two but has bundles of class and is very progressive so I’ll stick to my stable runner given the amount of guesswork around in other races. Less is More in the extreme.

Part of the test for annual profit is the ability to stay tight through the sticky patch. Still ahead for this month. Doing everything I can to stay there!

 

Recommendation:

0.25pt BACK on MAGIC OF LIGHT

 

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 37/48 = 77.08% :   BACKS: 7/29 = 24.13%

 

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NH TO FOLLOW LIST STARTING BANK = 15 points

Stands at 14.8 points

 

The Bozmail to follow list has a combination of simply the most exciting horses I’ve seen in current race watching and a selection of those I’ve gotten to know over the years who are getting close to the place where they can be expected to win again. The list is ever changing and I have a subs bench of horses waiting to get on all the time. Candidates also disappear with regularity if they underperform or look to have shot their bolt in the win. So a fluid list that you’ll see altering all the time. I’ll log entries on this sheet as they occur and recommend staking advices on the day they are due to run after I’ve had chance to assess the race they are competing in. These selections can be backed to fixed odds or traded either in or before running as is your preference. There is profit whichever way you play over time.

 

From June 2018, The Bozmail switched to recommending trading the majority of these runners, including inplay trading, to back at optimum prices and hedge accordingly when appropriate. Profit figures were increased on previous years because of that so if you feel confident enough to approach like that, by all means. I will certainly be playing that way. I shall however post as fixed odds selections and the service arbiter will settle all results to Betfair SP in line with his fairness to all policy.

 

2019 BOZmail NH JUMPERS TO FOLLOW:

(* indicates early candidates for Cheltenham Festival Glory)

Waiting Patiently * – Entered for Leopardstown (Feb 2 & 3)

Rebel Og  

Return Ticket  

Adjourned

Dynamite Dollars – Entered for Doncaster (Jan 26)

Itchy Feet *

Frodon * – Entered for Cheltenham (Jan 26)

Ask Paddington

Lady Buttons * – Entered for Doncaster (Jan 26)

Ribble Valley  

La Bague au Roi *  – Entered for Leopardstown (Feb 3)

Benatar *

Captain Zebo

Magic of Light*  

Unwin VC

Nicolas Chauvin

Vinndication *

Valtor – Entered for Cheltenham (Jan 26)

Ruby Yeats

Lostintranslation*

Cliffs of Dover*

Ebony Gale

Zakharova  

Indian Opera – Entered for Doncaster (Jan 26)

 

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AUSTRALIAN OPEN TENNIS

 

0.35pt LAY KVITOVA @ 2.42 in the outrights

0.1pt BACK COLLINS @ 16.0 in the outrights – LOST

0.15pt BACK OSAKA @ 3.6 in the outrights

 

Just the final to go in the squelching 50 degree heat and a 50-50 chance of getting out with some profit. Osaka the more comfortable on surface, in conditions and with youth on her side but a genuine 50-50 call really as the two have never faced each other on the tour before. The young Japanese had a few nervy moments against Pliskova but handled the pressure and the Czech comeback pretty well. Her first serve is potent when in the groove and that whipped forehand is seriously lethal. If she pushes Kvitova around and maintains her focus I do make her slight fav. Kvitova has the mindset and the serve on her day to hurt Osaka and a lot depends on who performs on the day. It will be a first if Kvitova manages it on a surface she has traditionally struggled on but it has to be said she came into the tournament untroubled by the opposition and has maintained that. This could be her first big test however (especially in the heat) and the match might well make good viewing. All eyes on Naomi.

 

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.5 points.

Staggered acca number 5:

 

Awaiting the emergence of the next weapons grade selection before setting out again on leg 1.

 

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Good Luck with your bets.

 

BOZ

 

The BOZmail golden rules:

 

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a price. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges)

5/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

 

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

 

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