BOZmail – 25th FEBRUARY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

 

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

 

MONDAY FEBRUARY 25th 2019

 

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stands at 25.83 points after month 2

 

LESS IS MORE: MONDAY PLAY

3-30 PLUMPTON

So headcase it was for Diakali and a right messy race with the fav nearly unshipping at the first and Amour running no race. Upside was little damage with the exchange sending Henderson’s horse off at 1.57 whilst industry SP stayed at even money. A nice little arb if you were quick (I wasn’t!).

Ruby Yeats out again at Plumpton Monday but I’ve given up on her for now (so she’ll probably win!!) but I do stick with Gary Moore in the LIM race where he saddles two and I like both a bit but Royal Hall ought to need further and is a tad high in weights (but is ok on the ground) and can act as LIM cover because I prefer Distingo who has been mixing it with some good sorts and is markedly down in class here and represents good value at 9/1. His time on this surface at Huntingdon a few starts back reads well against a fav who might take some beating under a strong ride from Ms Frost but is very short on handicap debut at 5/4. Good flat horse but up in class here for him after a couple of easy course and distance wins and a serious question mark about the ground for me. Looks to want juice over hurdles and Distingo could just show him a clean pair of heels. Other three all have cases to make also if the fav does struggle on the ground so a fairly competitive LIM race with the flat race speed of Brandon Castle over rated in the market I feel.

Small stakes however in view of the precarious Feb P/L account and I’m largely aiming this week at getting out of February ahead with all the disruption that the equine flu created.

 

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on BRANDON CASTLE (at around 2.3: 2.6 limit)

0.1pt BACK on DISTINGO

 

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 52/73 = 71.23% :   BACKS: 11/48 = 22.91%

 

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NH TO FOLLOW LIST STARTING BANK = 15 points

Stands at 13.9375 points

 

The Bozmail to follow list has a combination of simply the most exciting horses I’ve seen in current race watching and a selection of those I’ve gotten to know over the years who are getting close to the place where they can be expected to win again. The list is ever changing and I have a subs bench of horses waiting to get on all the time. Candidates also disappear with regularity if they underperform or look to have shot their bolt in the win. So a fluid list that you’ll see altering all the time. I’ll log entries on this sheet as they occur and recommend staking advices on the day they are due to run after I’ve had chance to assess the race they are competing in. These selections can be backed to fixed odds or traded either in or before running as is your preference. There is profit whichever way you play over time.

 

From June 2018, The Bozmail switched to recommending trading the majority of these runners, including inplay trading, to back at optimum prices and hedge accordingly when appropriate. Profit figures were increased on previous years because of that so if you feel confident enough to approach like that, by all means. I will certainly be playing that way. I shall however post as fixed odds selections and the service arbiter will settle all results to Betfair SP in line with his fairness to all policy.

 

2019 BOZmail NH JUMPERS TO FOLLOW:

(* indicates early candidates for Cheltenham Festival Glory)

Waiting Patiently * – Entered for Ryanair Chase (Mar 14)

Return Ticket  

Adjourned

Itchy Feet * – Entered for Supreme Novices (Mar 12)

Frodon * – Entered for Ryanair (Mar 14) & Gold Cup (Mar 15)

Ask Paddington

Lady Buttons * – Entered for OLBG (Mar 12) & Queen Mother (Mar 13)

Ribble Valley  

La Bague au Roi *  – Entered for RSA (Mar 13) & JLT (Mar 14)

Benatar

Captain Zebo

Unwin VC – Entered for Wincanton (Feb 27)

Nicolas Chauvin

Vinndication * – Entered for RSA (Mar 13) & JLT (Mar 14)

Valtor – Entered for Albert Bartlett (Mar 15) & Grand National (Apr 6)

Lostintranslation* – Entered in JLT (Mar 14)

Cliffs of Dover

Ebony Gale

Zakharova  

Indian Opera – Entered for OLBG (Mar 12)

Happy Diva

Elegant Escape – Entered for Gold Cup (Mar 15) & Grand National (Apr 6)

Kaiser Black

Le Richebourg* – Entered for the Arkle (Mar 12) & JLT (Mar 14)

Parlour Maid – Entered for Leicester (Feb 26)

All Currencies

Knocknanuss* – Entered in the Arkle (Mar 12)

The Mighty Ash

Pistol Whipped

Cyrname

Rainy Day Dylan

 

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.685 points.

Staggered acca number 6: (LEG 1)

 

3-15 LINGFIELD – WISSAHICKON – at around 1/3  – 0.5pt WIN – WON

 

Will shout as soon as second leg emerges.

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Good Luck with your bets.

 

BOZ

 

The BOZmail golden rules:

 

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges)

5/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

 

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

 

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