BOZmail – 25th FEBRUARY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

TUESDAY FEBRUARY 25th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently standing at 21.022 points

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently standing at 9.5541 points

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently standing at 5.07 points

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LESS IS MORE: Tuesday play

No regrets on Scrafton and in many ways that was what LIM is all about. A confident lay used to have a punt on one at a monster price that could win on paper. And sometimes they do. Not for Scrafton perhaps though now. He is getting a bit old and that disappointing form for this season is starting to look consistent. He did lead round the bottom turn though and gave us our moment of maybe as Franny Norton was rowing hard on the fav who then ran on under pressure to look like he should win only for the weight to tell. That penalty always takes a good horse to carry it. The market (and the trainer) said it was good enough. 75% of over quarter of a million quid staked on it on the exchanges alone. The Boz however said it wasn’t and you’ll remember I was bullish enough to say you could take 2/1 if you had to! One of my better ones and back up to 66.66% strike rate on the lays and 25% on the backs which are my five year average percentage rates. So I’m performing to norms. Just need to keep looking for that big price winner to get the year really motoring. Found Goring. Patience and the next one will appear. Just wasn’t Scrafton despite his excellent performance in the market! 23.0 matched before the off. What value that would have been although one of you reports that Paddy Power offered 33/1 on a restricted account! Paddy was taking a chance or maybe, as the great McCrirrick would have said, “HE KNEW!” 

At this stage, Tuesday is looking a possible blank day. Two qualifiers at Catterick but both pretty unappetising affairs likely to go to screaming odds on favs. And an 8am inspection tomorrow morning with the ground already heavy and snow around here today which doesn’t bode well. No qualifiers at Lingfield on the all weather but three seven runner affairs. I’ve scanned all three today and not seen much to risk there but I’ll look again Tuesday morning once the Catterick situation is clear and post again around 9am if I am putting up a play.

BOZ 

LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 12/18 = 66.66%  Backs: 3/12 = 25%

THE BOZ’s daily LIM record for FEBRUARY:

1st:  +0.196  (+0.196) Lay @ 3.3

2nd: +0.147 (+0.343) Lay @ 2.28

3rd: +0.196 (+0.539) Lay @ 2.9

4th:  NO BET DAY

5th: NO BET DAY

6th: +0.097 (+0.636) Lay @ 2.5 : Back @ 15.0

7th: -0.288 (+0.348) Lay @ 1.96

8th:   -0.2 (+0.148) Back @ 2.56

9th: RACING ABANDONED

10th: -0.21 (-0.062) Lay @ 2.4

11th: -0.191 (-0.253) Lay @ 1.94 : Back @ 14.0

12th: +0.6223 (+0.3693) Lays @ 2.64 & 3.04 : Back @ 6.4

13th:  -0.14 (+0.2293) Lay @ 2.4

14th:  +0.147 (+0.3763) Lays @ 4.2 & 4.65(in running) : Back @ 14.0

15th:  -0.204 (+0.1723) Lay @ 2.36

16th:  +0.098 (+0.2703) Lay @ 2.4

17th:  +0.086 (+0.3563) Lay @ 2.7 : Back @ 6.6

18th:  +0.3007 (+0.657) Lay @ 2.66 : Back @ 3.05

19th:   +0.147 (+0.804) Lay @ 1.44 

20th:   -0.34 (+0.464) Lay @ 2.2 : Back @ 4.4

21st:   +0.047 (+0.511) Lay @ 3.3 : Back @ 10.0

22nd:  +0.54 (+1.051) Lay NOT MATCHED : Back @ 12.0

23rd:   -0.15 (+0.901) Back @ 2.25

24th:   +0.121 (+1.022) Lay @ 1.86 : Back @ 21.0

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Unwin VC* 

Tea Clipper* 

Black Op – Entered for RSA & Marsh Novices (Mar 11&12)

Verdana Blue – Entered for Champion Hurdle & Mares Hurdle (Mar 10)

Maire Banrigh* – Entered for Arkle (Mar 10) & Marsh Novices (Mar 12)

Thyme Hill* – Entered for Ballymore & Albert Bart(Mar 13)

Nordano* – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 11 & 13)

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes 

Vinndication – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 10)

Lostintranslation* – Entered for Gold Cup at Cheltenham (Mar 13)

Cat Tiger* – Entered for Ballymore (Mar 11 & 12) & Albert Bartlett (Mar 13)               

Welsh Saint* – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 12)

Normandy Soldier* 

Jatiluwih – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 12)

Esprit Du Large – Entered for The Arkle (Mar 10) & Marsh Novices (Mar 12)

Magic of Light* – Entered for  Chelt (Mar 10) & Grand National (Apr 4)

Defi Sacre* 

Lieutenant Rocco*Entered for Wincanton(Feb 26)&the Albert Bartlett Novice (Mar 13)

Israel Champ

Soaring Glory 

Ambion Hill 

Quick Wave

It’safreebee 

Sporting John – Entered for Supreme & Ballymore at Cheltenham

Captain Zebo

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ANTE POST ACCA FOR CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL:

Lostintranslation @ 8/1

Verdana Blue @ 33/1

Marie Banrigh @ 25/1

Thyme Hill @ 6/1

0.01pt WIN ACCA with acca edge accepted. 

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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