BOZmail – 25th AUGUST

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

SUNDAY AUGUST 25th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 55.451 points after month 8 (+35.451 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +8.3313 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +7.6952 points

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LESS IS MORE: SUNDAY PLAY

3-15 BEVERLEY

Never mind a non-runner on a Bank Holiday! Not so keen on missing Moffat’s two winners in the last two races at Cartmel mind. Did say Bank Holiday could be brilliant or dire!

This is a wide open sprint and perfect LIM fodder. Fav Harry Love has good course and distance form and had the draw against last time and overcame it and a penalty. The opposite this. Draw important at Beverley especially for the sprints.On handicap debut though and up in class. I prefer Proper Beau on his second after a wind op and Great Dame against the fav. Both have better time figures. Great Dame drops in class.Tom Tulliver holds Bushtucker trial on form but neither of the bottom weights can be ruled out. 

Recommendations:

0.25pt LAY on HARRY LOVE (around 2.4 : no greater than 2.86)

0.1pt BACK on GREAT DAME

0.1pt BACK on PROPER BEAU

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This month plays so far:

1st:       +1.244(+1.244) Lay @ 1.85 : Back @ 4.8

2nd:      -0.5465(+0.6975) Lay @ 1.99 : Back @ 3.3

3rd:       -0.024 (+0.6735) Lays @2.08 & 2.08 : Back @ 11.5

4th:       +0.045(+0.7185) Lay @ 3.45 : Back @ 11.0

5th:       +0.196(+0.9145) Lay @ 2.08

6th:        -0.48 (+0.4345) Lay @ 3.4

7th:        +0.39 (+0.8245) Lay @ 1.69 : Back @ 11.0

8th:        -0.4425(+0.382)  Lay @ 1.55 : Backs @ 6.4 & 4.1

9th:        +0.245 (+0.627) Lay @ 2.2

10th:       -0.655 (-0.028)  Lay @ 1.71 : Back @ 5.6

11th:       +0.147(+0.119) Lay @ 4.4

12th:       +0.145(+0.264) Lay @ 1.73 : Back @ 55.0

13th:       +0.145(+0.409) Lay @ 4.1 : Back @ 6.2

14th:       +1.434(+1.843) Lay @ 2.06 : Back @ 8.6

15th:        -0.3 (+1.543) Lay @ 1.6

16th:        NON RUNNER

17th:        +0.565(+2.108) Lay @ 1.55 : Back @ 4.2

18th:        +0.245(+2.353) Lay @ 2.1

19th:         -0.18 (+2.173) Lay @ 1.9

20th:         -0.35 (+1.823) Back @2.24

21st:         -0.4055(+1.4175) Lay @ 1.47 : Back @ 11.5

22nd:        +0.145 (+1.5625) Lay @1.27 : Back @ 4.3

23rd:          -0.42 (+1.1425) Lay @1.44 : Back @ 5.0

24th:          NON RUNNER

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 149/223 = 66.81% :   BACKS: 44/153 = 28.75%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Commodore Barry

Kaizer 

Caius Marcius 

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel 

Raise You – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Maydanny

Roseman – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Light Up Our Stars 

Waldpfad – Entered in Haydock Sprint Cup (Sep 7) 

Miss Celestial – Entered at Curragh (Sep 28)

Deirdre – Entered for Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown (Sep 14)&Ascot(Oct 19)

Piedita 

Lord of the Lodge 

Mum’s Tipple – Entered for Doncaster (Sep 12) & (Sep 14)-Newbury (Sep 21)

Lady Mascara

FYI the above two inclusions to the to follow list are the start of my formerly sharing horses I have clocked doing a dump at the starting gates and then going on to hose up. Both at biggish favourite prices in competitive and prestigious races. The only two I have seen in the past fortnight so the system is currently running at 100% strike rate!

I remain unsure whether such an action is by design but am still totally convinced it is something we should be noting and I have it as a strong part of my paddock watch service now with so far extremely positive results. I have a list in reserve of all the horses I have seen in this action over the years and continue to add to it. The instance of repeat action is limited but also exists and I am wanting to expand on the possibility that it is a procedure we can go out looking for with particular horses. So if you see one, let me know. Especially if he goes on and wins! Mum’s Tipples’ performance will convince all doubters of the veracity of this device. That horse had a rocket up his arse!!

AUGUST BANK HOLIDAY TO FOLLOW/TRADE HORSES:

SATURDAY 24th: 5-20 YORK – JAMES WATT @ 33/1 – 0.1pt (Backed@90.0 : Hedged before the off @ 80.0 = zero P/L)

SUNDAY 25th: 4-10 BADEN BADEN – WALDPFAD @ 11/10 – 0.5pt

MONDAY 26th: 4-50 EPSOM – LIGHT UP OUR STARS @ ? – 0.1pt

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.12 points.

 Acca number 18: 

Will shout as the final staggered acca starter emerges.

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US OPEN PORTFOLIO:

Recommendations: 

1.5pt LAY on SERENA at around 6.4 

0.25pt BACK on IGA SWIATEK at 200/1

0.25pt BACK on CORI GAUFF at 80/1 

0.25pt BACK on SOFIA KENIN at 67.0  – 0.25pt LAY @30.0

0.25pt BACK ON DANIELLE COLLINS at 250/1  

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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