BOZmail 25th AUGUST

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

TUESDAY AUGUST 25th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 21.7902 points (+1.7902 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 15.7932 points (+7.7932 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.555 points (-0.445 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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BOZmail 2020 cycle PART ONE(1/2 – 31/5) overall profit  = +4.2876 points

                                      PART TWO(1/6 – 31/1 )  overall profit = +7.9894 points

                                          BOZmail 2020 overall score = +12.2770 points

PART ONE LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 25/41 = 60.97%  Backs: 9/29 = 31.03%

PART TWO LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 45/59 = 76.27%  Backs : 7/28 = 25%

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LESS IS MORE

1-00 BANGOR

That was a loser I didn’t want. Fairly hopeful on it too. Lough Har ran a stinker and Lock’s wasn’t punted but got the weather and ran much better than I expected. Elkstone did give it a go but outclassed. Really bad timing in regard to my recovery programme and bank management. Basically gave back the Lady Bowes win which is very galling. But hey ho. Losers happen. Just gotta dust me down and try again!

Not going mad though at Bangor. Irish Prophecy carried his penalty honourably LTO but didn’t win and has to try again here. It gets harder each time you try but to be fair not massive opposition here. He is worthy fav and next three in the betting all represent strong stable/jockey combos but all have question marks to answer. So does Irish Prophecy though in stepping up in trip. Not guaranteed on that I’d say breeding wise. And must give nearly two stone to Oscar Nomination who is the least experienced but ran ok on Chase debut.Jen’s Boy advertised that form at Fontwell the other day. Out of the handicap here but Carver on board claiming five which further emphasizes the weight differential and if he jumps, he could well be competitive. Hamner stable is one I like and due a winner. Been hitting the crossbar. 12/1 and bigger looks value to me to get me back on my bike!

Recommendations:

0.1pt LAY on IRISH PROPHECY (around 3.0)

0.05pt BACK on OSCAR NOMINATION (around 13.0 or bigger)

LIM scores for August:

1st :  NO BET

2nd : +0.0886  (+0.0886) Lay @ 1.93 : Back @ 7.0

3rd:   +0.0245  (+0.1131) Lay @ 3.75

4th:   +0.385    (+0.4981) Lays @ 3.75 & 3.3 :Backs @ 15.0 & 3.75

5th:   +0.0671 (+0.5652) Lay @ 2.38 & 14.0 : Backs @ 19.0 & 4.0

6th:    NON RUNNER

7th:    +0.049  (+0.6142) Lay @ 4.4 : Back @ 7.0

8th:    -0.475 (+0.1392) Lay @ 2.5 : Back @ 6.4

9th:    NO BET

10th:  +0.441 (+0.5802) Lay @ 3.75 : Back @ 8.0

11th:  +0.686 (+1.2662) Back @ 6.6

12th:  +0.0392 (+1.3054) Lay @ 3.75 : Back @ 5.9 

13th:   NON RUNNER

14th:   +0.0294 (+1.3348) Lay @ 1.94 : Back @ 2.2

15th:   NO BET

16th:    -0.124  (+1.2108) Lays @ 2.8 & 4.2

17th:   NO BET

18th:    +0.147 (+1.3578) Lay @ 1.98 : Back @13.0

19th:    NON RUNNER

20th:    -0.018 (+1.3398) Lay @ 1.44 : Back @ 1.54

21st:    +0.147(+1.4868) Lay @ 2.7 : Back @ 8.8

22nd:   -0.1    (+1.3868) Back @ 5.2

23rd:    +0.196 (+1.5828) Lay @ 3.0

24th:     -0.65   (+0.9328) Lay @ 3.75 : Back @ 16.0

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker 

Ransom

Battleground – Entered for  Curragh (Sep13)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

Alicestar – Entered at Lingfield (Aug 27) & Goodwood (Aug 29)

Custard The Dragon – Entered at Musselburgh (Aug 26)

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Check My Pulse 

Balagan 

Ashutor 

Sangha River 

Captain Tom Cat 

Lord Condi 

Saint Sam (FR)

Rubytwo 

Pisgah Pike – Entered for Sedgefield (Aug 27)

Hiconic

Young Wolf

Sirobbie 

Little Jessture 

Soldier of Love 

Lady Bowes 

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Sporting Press

Global Tour 

Samsons Reach 

Leoncavallo

Longhouse Sale

Oscar Rose – Entered for Sedgefield (Aug 27)

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April         : – 0.1733 points

May          : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June         : + 0.0428 points

July          : + 0.8046 points  (+2.7744points)

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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