BOZmail – 25th APRIL

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

THURSDAY APRIL 25th 2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stands at 36.0395 points after month 4

LESS IS MORE: THURSDAY PLAY

7-20 KEMPTON

Fontwell again. Always been my most blessed track and I suppose the one I know most about. Scholfield did indeed give it a peach of a ride. A win that looked most unlikely at half way. Only regret that I didn’t have more faith in it as a race read. Had the potential to be bullish but I shied away. Must never belittle the caution however. A win is a win. And the caution did me great service earlier in the month limiting the losing streak damage. Part of the landscape for The Boz.

And we brought a few milestones up with that race read, as well as keeping the lay run going. LIM doubles its bank which is always a significant annual mark. Slightly later this year than usual but there nevertheless and it initiates a general increase in staking for the rest of the year. Part of the gradual accumulation of profit scenario.

Also moves the lay % for the service back over the 72% mark which I have to say is impressing me most at this time of year. 6% up on previous efforts and that I think largely attributable to the caution I play with. Ensuring the bedrock stays in place and undisturbed.

And so a licence to speculate a little more from now on. I shall try to do so with more confidence than exhibited Wednesday especially at Fontwell! You might have noted a couple of other things at Fontwell Wednesday. The other shorties all won so the excruciating narrowing down was well worth the perseverance. Also the Murphys fav never won (thought he might for a while!) but did us the job of setting a blistering pace by taking the fav on so that our boy could benefit from the pace collapse up the Fontwell hill. Horses for courses….  

On to Thursday and our first taste of evening summer jumps racing. A particular favourite of mine and one to get me in the mood for the Cartmel meet coming up.

A three horse affair with a fancied mare at the bottom of the handicap. What more could I ask for!

Fairly clear about my play. Nicky Henderson does well at Kempton and has taken this race three years in the last five so Kings Ryde’s price should stay fairly competitive and for our purposes layable. On my figures, he can’t turn round the form with Black Buble LTO at Ascot (same weights) despite the shorter distance. Black Buble was defying a 13lb rise that day so is obviously smart and holds Kings Ryde at this distance on past times and is only raised a further 3lb for a comprehensive win. Jockey bookings confirm the Henderson yard not mega serious in this race so Black Buble a clear winner of the two again for me. Both yards however scoring lowish on the current running to form %s whereas Alan King is up at 67%. And Peggys Venture ticks my boxes as the unexposed horse receiving weight (over a stone off Kings Ryde) and has time evidence that holds both of these. And she’s a mare! Value in the race by far with Black Buble as suitable LIM cover.

There is also a possibility before tissue prices emerge of a staggered acca player for Thursday at Warwick…… Now aborted after a weather check. Affects this tip too and stakes have been reduced.

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on KINGS RYDE (around 2.5 ; no greater than 3.0)

0.1pt BACK on PEGGYS VENTURE

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This month plays so far:

1st: NON RUNNER  

2nd:   +0.355 (+0.355) LAY @ 1.9 : BACK @ 2.6

3rd:     -0.6 (- 0.245) LAY @  2.5 : BACK @ 10.0

4th:     +0.24 (- 0.005) LAY @  3.8

5th:     +0.044(+0.039) LAY @ 3.5 : BACK @ 3.5

6th:     +0.343(+0.382) LAY @ 2.2

7th:     +0.39 (+0.772) LAY @ 2.52 : BACK @ 12.0

8th:     – 0.52 (+0.252) LAYS @ 3.6 & 4.7 : BACK @ 9.2

9th:     – 0.26 (- 0.008) LAY @ 1.8 : BACK @ 8.0

10th:   – 0.276(- 0.284) LAY @ 1.88 : BACK @ 22.0

11th:   – 0.34 (- 0.624) LAY @ 2.2  : BACK @ 10.5

12th:   +0.343 (- 0.281) LAY @ 3.2

13th:   +0.294 (+0.013) LAY @ 3.4

14th:   +0.243 (+0.256) LAY @ 3.2 : BACK @ 7.0

15th:   +0.545 (+0.801) LAY @ 4.0 : BACK @ 4.5

16th:   +0.193 (+0.994) LAY @ 2.86 : BACK @ 6.0

17th:   +0.098 (+1.092) LAY @ 4.0

18th:   +0.193 (+1.285) LAY @ 2.42 : BACK @ 8.69

19th:    +0.624 (+1.909)LAY @ 2.4(in running) : BACK @ 4.3

20th:    +0.243 (+2.152)LAY @ 2.0 : BACK @ 38.0

21st:     +0.194 (+2.346)LAY @ 2.62 : BACK @ 28.0

22nd:    +0.686 (+3.032)LAY @ 1.7

23rd:     +0.194 (+3.226)LAY @ 2.7

24th:     +1.092 (+4.318)LAY @ 1.7 : BACKS @ 4.5 & 9.0

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 93/129 = 72.09% :   BACKS: 21/84 = 25%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Endless Credit

Opechee

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Rocket Action

King of Comedy

Land of Legends

Edaraat

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10.054 points.

Staggered acca number 9: (LEG 3)

Was pretty keen on Cruiseaweigh in the 3-40 at Warwick on Thursday but just seen the tissue and heard the weather in Warwick for tonight and early tomorrow. A change in the goings is a coming! And so I abort. It does change it away from being weapons grade.

Ever the cautious!

Will shout when the next leg emerges.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast

for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz

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