BOZmail 24th SEPTEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet 

THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 24th  2020 

BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +16.5284 points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 25.2671 points (+5.2671 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 20.2468 points (+12.2468 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 5.1635 points (+0.1635 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 79/112 = 70.53%  Backs : 21/68 = 30.88%

2-15 PERTH

This is not a race to be over bullish about and has very September feel once more but Saglawy looks worth taking on if favourite with a couple of negatives in lacking chase experience and a distinct possible he’ll need softer ground to show his best.

Skelton’s Not that Fuisse has the chase experience to put to good use and there is also the Twiston Davies factor. Nigel farms this race with his better class prospects

and Redford Road fits the bill and should be watched with a view to potentially making our to follow list. Good race really for future research purpose with again the Twiston Davies horse looking the most likely to make up into a top class chaser.

Recommendation:

0.15pt LAY on SAGLAWY (around 3.0 or lower if possible. Get the best price you can)  

LIM SCORES FOR SEPTEMBER:

1st:  +0.196  (+0.196) Lay @ 3.55

2nd: NO BET

3rd:  -0.345  (-0.149) Lay @ 3.3

4th: NO BET

5th: NO BET

6th:  +0.1764 (+0.0274) Lay @ 1.84

7th: NO BET

8th:  -0.1         (-0.0726) Back @ 12.0

9th:  +0.3234 (+0.2508) Back @ 3.2

10th: NO BET

11th: NO BET

12th: -0.465 (-0.2142) Lay @ 2.86

13th: NO BET

14th: NO BET

15th: +0.4441 (+0.2299) Lay @ 2.2 : Back @ 3.45

16th: NO BET

17th: +0.098  (+0.3279) Lay @ 1.8 : Back @ 14.0

18th: NO BET

19th: +0.4042 (+0.7321) Back @ 3.75

20th: +0.098  (+0.8301) Lay @ 2.4 : Back @ 16.0

21st:  -0.31    (+0.5201) Lay @ 2.3 : Back @ 6.0

22nd: NON RUNNER

23rd: NO BET

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker 

Ransom

Battleground – Entered for Newmarket (Sep26) & (Oct 10)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

Alicestar

Custard The Dragon 

Plainchant(FR)

Aramhes(FR)

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Check My Pulse – Entered @ Perth (Sep 24)

Sangha River 

Captain Tom Cat 

Saint Sam (FR)

Pisgah Pike – Entered @ Market Rasen (Sep 26)

Hiconic – Entered @ Market Rasen (Sep 26)

Young Wolf 

Sirobbie 

Soldier of Love 

Lady Bowes(soft) 

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Sporting Press 

Samsons Reach 

Leoncavallo – Entered in the Cesarewitch (Oct 10)

Longhouse Sale 

Oscar Rose 

She’s a Rocca(heavy)

Charm Offensive

Timetoroe(heavy)

Baby Jane

Caius Marcius -Entered @ Market Rasen (Sep 26)

Calum Gilhooly

The Butcher Said

Leapaway

Return Ticket(flat track)

NH TO FOLLOW TRADE PLAYS on WEDNESDAY:

2-30 PERTH – SHE’S A ROCCA @ 9/1 – 0.15pt BACK

Backed @ 11.0 : hedged 0.19pt @ 8.6 : P/L = +0.0392pts

3-05 PERTH – SPORTING PRESS @ 11/1 – 0.15pt BACK

Backed @ 13.5 : hedged 0.2pt @ 9.8 : P/L = +0.049pts 

She’s a Rocca needs more time and probably is also going to thrive on substantially rain softened ground. Jumped better than first time but less than fluently over the last couple and 6th place was moderate only. Looks to be moving towards a winter campaign however and still learning.

Sporting Press can be scratched off the list. Something wrong there and the market was aware of it with the drift out to 32.0 before the off. Looks like breathing problems.

Pre race trading did its job however. Some more small gains toward the cause.

NH TO FOLLOW TRADE PLAY on THURSDAY:

2-50 PERTH – CHECK MY PULSE @ 5/1 – 0.15pt BACK

Has to give weight all round and isn’t well in with Archi’s Affair on previous meeting form. Did however progress well in win LTO and looks a nice sort so could just go on again and carry the penalty here. Stable think a lot of him and if you can get any 5/1, you’ll be getting value I’d say. It’s a trade recommendation ultimately again as I want to keep the profit momentum moving forward but get the best price that you can and then see how the market goes toward the off. I might be tempted to hedge 50% and keep 50% for in play to see how things look as there do look distinct possibilities that this horse is above average. Pulled a long way clear of the field when it won LTO.

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April         : – 0.1733 points

May          : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June         : + 0.0428 points

July          : + 0.8046 points  

August    :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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