BOZmail 24th OCTOBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet 

SATURDAY OCTOBER 24th  2020 

BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +37.3998 points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 27.7602 points (+7.7602 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 39.0251 points (+31.0251 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.7635 points (-0.2365 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 96/132 = 72.72%  Backs : 25/80 = 31.25%

2-40 CHELTENHAM

Only four runners but a difficult race to be dogmatic about and although I go against the front two and for the two outsiders again, I don’t have huge confidence in it and am keeping staking tight. Not That Fuisse is the To Follow and deserves our support for the win at Perth which showed him arriving at last over fences. A smidgeon more improvement here needed perhaps that could could come from his race fitness where the front two are FTO for the season and those from that category don’t always fare well at Cheltenham and didn’t so much on Friday.

Coole Cody got a form boost from the strong showing of Soldier of Love on Friday and is the value of the race who also needs to find a career best on the book but could also do that with match fitness on his side.

The other factor to be wary of on the day is the weather. As it stands when I write, ground is a negative for Pileon who almost certainly wants it soft as it was for him when an excellent second in the Martin Pipe at the Festival. Heavy rain forecast during the day at Cheltenham on Saturday and you might want to abort if it looks to have affected a change in the ground because he’d be the only one likely to relish heavy underfoot conditions. No sign of that on Friday and so the good ground would be a negative for him alongside the chasing debutant aspect. Tough ask for chasing debutantes at Cheltenham although this one does get a handy few pounds weight allowance from the others and all things considered is a cautious lay. I’ll keep Nicholls’ fav as LIM cover because he did run excellent LTO at Kempton behind Who Dares Wins who later won at Royal Ascot on the flat. Might just be the class of the race but also does look to lack finishing kick to me and wouldn’t want a slog finish in the mud.

Recommendation:

0.15pt LAY on PILEON (around 3.2 or lower)

0.1pt BACK on NOT THAT FUISSE (around 3.75)

LIM SCORES FOR OCTOBER:

1st: NO BET

2nd: +0.196  (+0.196) Lay @ 4.1

3rd:  -0.18     (+0.016) Lay @ 2.2

4th:  +0.147  (+0.163) Lay @ 4.4

5th: NO BET

6th: NO BET

7th:  -0.54     (-0.377) Lay @ 3.2 : Back @ 16.5

8th:  -0.392  (-0.769) Lay @ 2.12

9th: +0.441  (-0.328) Lay @ 1.25 : Back @ 8.0

10th: -0.1     (-0.428) Back @ 2.4

11th: +0.294 (-0.134) Lay @ 1.94 : Back @ 4.0

12th: NO BET

13th: +0.1558 (+0.0218) Back @ 2.59

14th: +0.098   (+0.1198) Lay @ 2.4

15th:  +0.245  (+0.3648) Lay @ 2.7 (averaged and after 22% Rule 4 deduction)

16th:  +0.196  (+0.5608) Lay @ 2.7

17th:  +0.4459 (+1.0067) Lay @ 1.7 : Back @ 3.05

18th:  +0.245  (+1.2517) Lay @ 2.3

19th:  +0.196  (+1.4477) Lay @ 4.35

20th:  +0.196  (+1.6437) Lay @ 2.7 : Back @ 12.5

21st:  +0.147  (+1.7907) Lay @ 2.9 : Back @ 11.5

22nd: +0.2154 (+2.0061) Lay @ 3.6 

23rd: NO BET

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker 

Ransom

Battleground – Entered for Irish Guineas(May 22)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5) & Irish Guineas (May 22)

Plainchant(FR) 

Aramhes(FR)

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Straw Fan Jack

McFabulous

Flic Ou Voyou 

Soaring Glory

Israel Champ

Bravemansgame

Sangha River

Captain Tom Cat 

Saint Sam (FR)

Pisgah Pike 

Young Wolf 

Sirobbie     

Soldier of Love (3m 2f)

Lady Bowes(soft) – Entered @ Ayr (Oct 26)

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Leoncavallo 

Oscar Rose 

She’s a Rocca(heavy) 

Charm Offensive – Entered @ Ayr (Oct 26)

Timetoroe(heavy)

Baby Jane

Caius Marcius – Entered @ Aintree (Oct 25)

Calum Gilhooly 

The Butcher Said

Mrs Hyde

Return Ticket(flat track) 

Redford Road

Not That Fuisse(good/good to soft) 

Carroll’s Milan

Prettylittlething 

Wenceslaus

Boothill

Al Dancer

Onemorefortheroad

Stormy Ireland

Eldorado Allen

For Pleasure

Fidelio Vallis (softish ground)

Enrichissant

Zamani

Uncanaver

Ribble Valley

NH HORSES TO FOLLOW(TRADE?) at Cheltenham on Friday:

2-25 SOLDIER OF LOVE (best priced 11/2 with BOYLESPORTS) 0.1pt BACK-2nd

3-00CAPTAINTOM CAT(best priced 13/2 with BETVICTOR)0.1pt BACK-1st@15/2(averaged back @ 10.0)

4-45 RETURN TICKET (best priced 10/1 with WILLIAM HILL) 0.1pt BACK -3rd

3 x 0.1pt WIN SINGLES : 1 x 0.05pt WIN TREBLE : 3 x 0.05pt WIN DOUBLES.

Total Spend = 0.5pts : P/L = +0.5pts

Classic BOZ that the nap gets beat and the least fancied is the star! Captain Tom Cat jumped clean and that won it for him from the front where apparently trainer had said not to be! Does take some doing to win those kind of Cheltenham races from the front and this one should go in the notebooks for March. Ought to win off a higher mark based on that. Excellent ride from the young jockey again. That weight allowance also did the trick.

Soldier of Love ran well for second at a market unfancied 10/1 and does look to need that extra two furlongs. Simply outsped and maybe outclassed by the fav and one of those where the avoidance of LIM and the knowing which bets not to have was being just as critical as choosing those to play. I never thought of each way though. 10/1 made SOL a good each way return. Well done if you thought of that. Did consider scratching him from the to follow as he didn’t pass his absolute top class test but on reflection, he stays on as I suspect they will move him to top class races over further now so we see what his next entry is before deciding if perhaps we haven’t won our share from him for now. Well done to those who traded Soldier by the way (and Return Ticket).Did turn out the way to play him although no regrets from BOZ the gambler as two out when Galvin did jump a bit squishy, I thought we might just be on. Classy finish though from Galvin. He certainly caught the eye.

And finally Return Ticket….jumped honourably. Bit too close to a few and beat Getaway Trump but was another good LIM swerve for the Boz is best you can say. Fusil Raffles in another county. So failed his test at the big table but can stay on the list for now. Might make a decent handicapper if not quite a champion chaser!  

NH HORSE TO FOLLOW/TRADE at Cheltenham on Saturday:

3-15 SIROBBIE @ 12/1 – 0.1pt BACK

Get the best price you can and hedge as appropriate and preferential odds are offered.

Not the same confidence around this one that there was in yesterday’s three and this is simple pre race trade for me. Ultra competitive race for this Uttoxeter specialist who will need a career best just to get in the mix up the hill. Cheltenham a very different test to slick,fast Uttoxeter so no great expectations here and happy with whatever kind of trade profit I can get.

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April         : – 0.1733 points

May          : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June         : + 0.0428 points

July          : + 0.8046 points  

August    :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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