BOZmail – 24th NOVEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

SUNDAY NOVEMBER 24th  2019 

*************************************************

 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 60.481 points after month 11 (+40.481 points profit)

*******************************************

2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

**************************************************

THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +14.4857 points

*************************************************

BOZMAIL 2019 COMBINED PROFIT TOTAL = +62.548 points

*************************************************

LESS IS MORE: SUNDAY PLAY

2-40 UTTOXETER

I worked hard yesterday on whether to lay Bristol De Mai or Altior. I did fancy both to have a chance of getting beat and ended up plumping for Bristol De Mai mainly because I had two horses to beat him with. I wish I’d known they’d both go down!

I thought Lostintranslation ran a very impressive race. To have beaten Frodon by so far and then to miss out the second last but still have the speed to catch Bristol De Mai back up and then pass him like a true stayer. Had Gold Cup written on it. We will see now if Cyrname stays the extra distance because a crackerjack between those two is in the mix for us in the months ahead.

A quick word to those who have been in touch to ask what I think the time period is for having enough experience of LIM and the Bozmail to justify coming in as annual members for 2020. Given that you still have five weeks more experience ahead before 2019 ends and that December is traditionally one of my best months of the year, I’d say if you’ve been a member from beginning of October onwards, you won’t have seen the tennis betting (but the tennis returns weren’t great in 2019 anyways – see above) but you’ll have had plenty of time to see whether or not LIM is for you and that I am the tipster who gets the big favs beat. I got Buveur D’Air beat on Boxing Day last year and Bristol De Mai on Saturday and plenty more in between. I might even have been the one who got Altior beat for the first time ever if Bristol De Mai hadn’t been running same day! That’s my main claim to fame and I would reiterate that the main improvement you’ll see in 2020 is that profit returns on LIM (already plus 40 points to 20 point bank and plus 400 points to 200 point bank in 2019 cycle) will increase next year as I am able to gradually increase staking levels on the lays in particular knowing that all banks are at same level. One reviewer of my service this year has pointed to how my lays over 12 months would have shown bigger profit overall to level stake and he is right to notice that I have often been ultra cautious never wanting to take any customers into their bank. That’s always my main strategy particularly with laying. Play throughout with bookmakers money.

Which brings me nicely to Sunday which is my 300th LIM lay of the cycle and if I get it right, I return to the 66.66% overall average that I aim for – first time since that mid August spell since when I have been grinding out profits rather than belting them in!

Laying  is the cornerstone of LIM and the BOZmail and my main skill alongside not panicking when it isn’t going so well!

And who do I pick for my 200th success of the cycle? Well not an easy day with Exeter off and only a couple at Uttoxeter and an unappetising one at Navan on the radar. I do however quite like this race at Uttoxeter especially if the price on Flashjack shortens as I think he is held on times and at the weights by Coole Cody who should also get the better ride from Mr Bowen who was seen to great effect on If The Cap fits on Saturday. Flashjack has to carry the penalty he has struggled with last twice again here whereas Coole Cody returns to his winning mark at last and should be primed for best effort. Plenty of LIM cover in the others with Tea Time Fred on a par with Flashjack and the value back in the race could well be dark horse Shantung.

I concentrate on laying however and go modest on Flashjack to try to bring up the double century!

Recommendations:

0.25pt LAY on FLASHJACK (around 3.75 or shorter : no greater than 4.0)

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 199/299 = 66.55% :   BACKS: 53/201 = 26.36%

This month’s scores so far:

1st:    +0.343 (+0.343) Lay @ 2.6

2nd:   +0.245 (+0.588) Lay @ 2.62

3rd:    +0.098 (+0.656) Lay @ 4.2

4th:    NO PLAY DAY

5th:    +0.096 (+0.752) Lay @4.4 : Back @ 3.85

6th:    +0.147 (+0.899) Lay @ 1.75

7th:    +0.196 (+1.095) Lay @ 4.2

8th:    +0.343 (+1.438) Lay @ 2.1

9th:    -0.475 (+0.963) Lay @ 2.9

10th:  -0.3425(+0.6205) Lay @ 1.97 : Back @ 5.0

11th:  +0.144 (+0.7645) Lay @ 2.6 : Back @ 5.0

12th:  +0.196 (+0.9605) Lay @ 3.85

13th:  +0.596 +(1.5565) Lay @ 2.48 : Back @ 5.0

14th:  +0.147 (+1.7035) Lay @ 3.0

15th:   +0.095 (+1.7985) Lay @ 3.2 : Back @ 14.5

16th:   +0.245 (+2.0435) Lay @ 2.6

17th:   +0.143 (+2.1865) Lay @ 2.4 : Back @ 3.0

18th:    -0.332 (+1.8545) Lay @ 1.52 : Backs @6.0 & 26.0

19th:    +0.22 (+2.0745) Lay @ 1.89 : Back @ 36.0

20th:     -0.495 (+1.5795) Lay @ 3.1 : Back @ 8.0

21st:     +0.046(+1.6255) Lay @ 3.8 : Back @ 3.3

22nd:    -0.15 (+1.4755) Back @ 4.5

23rd:     +0.243 (+1.7185) Lay @ 2.2 : Back @ 8.0

*****************************************************  

STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.75 points. 

*******************************************************

WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

La Bague au Roi – Entered for the King George & The Gold Cup!

Unwin VC 

Kaizer 

Tea Clipper 

Nube Negra 

Black Op – Entered for Stayers Hurdle (Mar 12)

Verdana Blue – Entered for Champion Hurdle

Maire Banrigh 

Wenceslaus 

Tokaramore – Entered for Musselburgh (Nov 25)

Flic Ou Voyou 

Thyme Hill 

Nordano 

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes 

Floressa 

Vinndication –Entered for King George & Gold Cup!

Lostintranslation – Entered for ,King George,Ryanair & Gold Cup

Cat Tiger 

Welsh Saint 

Normandy Soldier

Ribble Valley

Kid Commando 

Up The Straight

Flaming Charmer

Jatiluwih

Soaring Glory

*****************************************************

HORSES TO FOLLOW/TRADE on SATURDAY:

3-00 HAYDOCK – LOSTINTRANSLATION – 0.15pt BACK @ 13/8 – WON

(Backed@3.1:hedges taken before the off @ 2.42&in running @ 1.25)P/L= =0.23pts

3-50 ASCOT – KID COMMANDO – 0.25pt BACK @5/2 – 2nd

(Backed @ 3.5 : hedged @ 2.7 before the off and again @ 2.38 in running)P/L = 0

Kid Commando ran well which makes Soaring Glory an even better one! Goes on the list.

*****************************************************

PLANS for the 2020 BOZmail:

The main development for next year is an annual subscription service only which will become available for purchase from December 1st 2019 and will be limited to first 150 purchasers. Membership will be closed when that number is reached or on January 31st 2020. Activity will begin on 1st February 2020.

The 2020 service will not be covering horseracing during January 2020 nor September 2020 as statistics have shown these to be negative months for LIM.

The 2020 BOZmail cycle will thus be a 10 month cycle completing on December 31st 2020.

The reason for annual subscription membership only is so that all members will be at same bank management level throughout. This enables The Boz to practice greater profit reinvestment in his staking levels (thus increasing overall profitability). Something that has not been possible in the 2019 cycle where new members were joining all the time and members were thus at varying bank levels throughout – leading The Boz to be more cautious in his staking levels than was ideal.

Membership of the 2020 BOZmail is recommended for those with some experience of how the service works (at least a month to six weeks)  although new members will be admitted up to the subscription closing date on January 31st 2020 if places are still available. First chance to purchase subscription however will be made to current members only. The service will only be advertised to non members after December 31st 2019 if some places are still available. The capping of numbers for the service is hopefully self explanatory to those who have experience of the service.

There will be some changes to content although the main focus will remain on the daily LIM service and the to follow trading advices in UK horse racing. Tennis coverage of the women’s Grand Slams will be limited to Wimbledon and the French Open only in 2020. There will be ad hoc accumulator advices throughout the cycle as they arise. The staggered acca approach practised in 2019 however will be discontinued. Simply hasn’t been as successful as hoped.

Never afraid to cull its dead wood is the BOZmail!

There are plans to introduce a paddock watching element to the service and to organise various days at the races during the year for those interested in advancing paddock watching skills and using these as an enhancement to their punting profitability generally. Details of these days will be available to BOZmail annual subscriber members only and will come at no extra charge (other than responsibility for paying own course entrance fee). The Boz is also publishing a guide to UK paddock watching in 2020 and will thus be in attendance at all UK racecourses at some point during the year collecting material for the book.

If you have any questions or queries about 2020 BOZmail annual membership at this stage, please feel free to contact The BOZ direct as always via email (garyboswell@hotmail.com). TGH Trading will be in touch in the coming weeks with personal invites to all current members to purchase first chance 2020 membership detailing cost etc. Opening date for purchasing 2020 membership will be December 1st 2019. First come,first served. 

With thanks to all who have supported the service in 2019 and here’s to a highly profitable and enjoyable 2020!

Cheers

THE BOZ

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *