BOZmail 24th NOVEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet

TUESDAY NOVEMBER 24th  2020

 LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 112/156 = 71.79%  Backs : 31/98 = 31.63%

2-16 SEDGEFIELD

This could not be more appropriate as we have Onthefrontfoot as one of two with which to take on Equus Dancer who was an impressive winner LTO but is penalised therefore. Slanelough comes out top of my figures but you couldn’t rule Just Call Me Al out if he has recovered from his fall LTO and Ladronne would be another with some improvement on the cards.

So all in all, Equus Dancer has plenty of opposition and is very short at 5/4 with the Bowen yard also out of sorts at the moment (no winners in last 20 runners and of those running only 18% running to their form).

Recommendation:

0.3pt LAY on EQUUS DANCER (around 2.3)

It goes without saying that I am profoundly sorry that my cron error caused some of you to receive the BOZmail very late yesterday. Too late for some of you to action. A distressing thing for me to deal with especially on such an important play. Please let me know how I can repair any damage caused and be assured it is not something that will happen again. Not supposed to have been a possibility that it could happen but checks weren’t enacted and those of you who did get the receipt of the mail in time to action it can give thanks to Jim Cannon – the BOZmailer who alerted me to non receipt of the email.

It is sent out the night before for many reasons but mainly so that you get plenty of time to market watch and plan your play and also so that I can sleep easy knowing you have all received it in plenty of time. If it doesn’t arrive the night before please do holler by 8am the following morning at the latest. Gives me time then to at least make sure everyone gets it with a few hours to spare. A few hours are better than nowt!!

But as I say, not a mistake I envisage happening in future. That sort of sloppiness weighs very heavily on my professional conscience and Jim has already received my profuse personal thanks for his actions which meant I got to most of you in time. Some of those I didn’t reach in time have already been in touch to receive their personal apologies (my knees are sore with the grovelling!). Any more who missed out, please do get in touch.

Cheers

BOZ 

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BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Wild Polly

Straw Fan Jack 

McFabulous

Flic Ou Voyou 

Soaring Glory – Entered @ Wetherby (Nov 25)

Israel Champ

Bravemansgame 

Pisgah Pike 

Young Wolf 

Lady Bowes(soft)

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre 

Leoncavallo

Oscar Rose 

Charm Offensive 

Timetoroe(heavy) 

Baby Jane

Calum Gilhooly 

Mrs Hyde 

Return Ticket(flat track) 

Prettylittlething 

Boothill

Al Dancer – Entered@ King George (Dec 26)

Eldorado Allen 

For Pleasure 

Ribble Valley – Entered in the Fighting Fifth,Newcastle (Nov 28)

Shan Blue

Shang Tang

Snow Leopardess 

Marble Sands

Dusart 

Bobby Bow (heavy)

Summerville Boy

Ga Law

Hitman

First Flow

NH HORSES TO FOLLOW/TRADE on MONDAY:

1-25 KEMPTON – SANGHA RIVER @ 10/1 – 0.1pt BACK – Fell

Backed @ 28.0 : hedged 0.125pt @ 20.0 : P/L = +0.0245points

3-45 KEMPTON – PISGAH PIKE @ 15/8 – 0.1pt BACK

Backed @ 2.6 : hedged 0.125pt @ 2.2 : P/L = +0.0245points 

And I did play both as very low grade trades. Easy enough as it turned out. Providing you got your email! Sangha River sadly leaves the list after that. His work is done.

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March  : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April     : – 0.1733 points

May      : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June     : + 0.0428 points

July      : + 0.8046 points 

August :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

October : + 2.1487 points (+7.9028 points)

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LIM Scores for November:

1st: +0.049 (+0.049) Lay @ 3.45 : Back @ 8.8

2nd: NO BET

3rd: +0.1543 (+0.2033) Back @ 2.05

4th:  NO BET

5th:  +0.098   (+0.3013) Lay @ 1.98 : Backs @ 9.0 & 51.0

6th:  +0.4312 (+0.7325) Lay @ 3.4 : Backs @ 6.8 & 13.5

7th:  +0.196   (+0.9285) Lays @ 4.0 & 3.35

8th:  +0.098   (+1.0265) Lay @2.1 : Back @ 8.4

9th:  +0.4606 (+1.4871) Lay @ 3.7 : Back @ 4.2

10th: +0.294 (+1.7811) Lay @ 2.04

11th: – 0.364  (+1.4171) Lay @ 2.04

12th: +0.196  (+1.6131) Lay @ 2.0 : Back @ 4.0

13th:  -0.3       (+1.3131) Lay @ 2.2

14th:  +0.147 (+1.4601)  Lay @ 2.24

15th:  +2.5284 (+3.9885) Lay @ 1.86 : Backs @ 6.6 & 25.0

16th:  NON RUNNER

17th:  -0.515   (+3.4735) Lay @ 2.86 : Back @ 13.5

18th:  +0.0735 (+3.547) Lay @ 3.8 : Back @ 6.0

19th:   -0.295   (+3.252) Lay @ 2.18

20th:   +0.343  (+3.595) Lay @ 1.3

21st:   – 0.329  (+3.266) Lay @ 2.86 : Back @ 4.5

22nd:  – 0.174  (+3.092) Lay @ 2.16

23rd:   +0.6566 (+3.7486) Lay @ 2.12 : Back @ 3.8

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BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +50.4338points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 31.6514 points (+11.6514 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 48.5529 points (+40.5529 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.3785 points (-0.6215 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz

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