BOZmail – 24th MARCH

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

SUNDAY MARCH 24th 2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stands at 27.28 points after month 3

LESS IS MORE: SUNDAY PLAY

2-25 CARLISLE

Nicholls brought class to the fore with Kupatana who ran right out at the distance and reminded me of Cyrname. The antics of the mare mean she don’t get on my to follow but Tokaramore does. Never really in this but stayed on to pass the very disappointing Kalahari Queen who made the jumping faux pas that was expected but never really came from Kupatana. I got a strong one fairly wrong but no regrets really and hats off to Nicholls who seems to have sorted his mare out. I went on early so no massive damage and seeking the positives, I got bank management about right in not going stronger lay on Kupatana given how bullish I was. Did say class might tell and it stayed my hand a bit. And I’m glad Tokaramore got round promisingly and can be remembered for another day at a lower level perhaps. Should win something somewhere.

Onwards. Not a great lot to aim at Sunday and have ended up with this slightly larger field race than norm keen to take on the McCain shorty with that stable still trying to get back from the rumpus of the flu bug. String still running at just 35% of horses showing form which is a worry for an 11/10 shot. Question marks for me too re Pogue on the ground and back over the extra distance and I’ll take him on with my to follow horse Captain Zebo who has a great battling attitude and might just be able to give the weight here. Other LIM cover from Battys Dilemma who has been absent two years but hails from a yard that are bouncing and form suggests he’s going to be more at home on the ground based on comparative point form which has fav and him quite closely matched.  

Recommendation:

0.3pt LAY on POGUE (around 2.1: no greater than 2.8)

0.1pt BACK on CAPTAIN ZEBO  

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This month plays so far:

1st: + 0.19   (+0.19)

2nd: + 0.24  (+0.43)

3rd: + 0.2     (+0.63)

4th:  – 0.32   (+0.31) LAY @ 2.1

5th:  +0.19  (+0.5)  LAY @ 3.75

6th:  +1.30  (+1.80) LAY @ 2.99: BACK @ 6.4

7th:   -0.195 (+1.605) LAY @ 1.78

8th:   -0.3125 (+1.2925) LAY @1.65

9th:   +0.19 (+1.4825) LAY @4.2

10th: +0.143 (+1.6255) LAY @ 1.6: BACK @ 8.0

11th:  -0.28  (+1.3455) LAY @ 1.72: BACK @ 11.0

12th:  -0.8   (+0.5455) LAY @ 3.0: BACK @ 65.0

13th:  +5.19 (+5.7355) LAY @ 1.9: BACK @ 51.0

14th:  +0.19 (+5.9255) LAYS @ 3.2 & 4.8

15th:   -0.22 (+5.7055) LAY @1.88

16th:   +0.09 (+5.7955) LAY @ 3.3 : BACK @ 34.0

17th:   +0.994 (+6.7895)LAY @ 2.28 : BACKS @ 2.76 & 8.0

18th:   +1.089 (+7.8785)LAY @ 2.16 : BACK @ 3.75

19th:   +0.24 (+8.1185) LAY @ 3.5

20th:   +0.09 (+8.2085) LAY @ 3.2 : BACK @ 8.0

21st:    +0.24 (+8.4485) LAY @ 1.82

22nd:   +0.14 (+8.5885) LAY @ 2.5 (in running): BACK @ 5.8

23rd:    -0.66 (+7.9285) LAY @ 2.4 : BACK @ 34.0

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 70/99 = 70.70% :   BACKS: 16/64 = 25%

HORSES OF INTEREST TO TRADE NEXT TIME OUT:

Uno Valoroso

Southfield Vic

Tokaramore

THE MIGHTY ASH runs SUNDAY AT EXETER and will be a trade play.

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.5 points.

Staggered acca number 7: (LEG 1)

Will shout as soon as the next good thing comes along.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

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