BOZmail – 24th MARCH

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

TUESDAY MARCH 24th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently standing at 22.8778 points (temporarily suspended)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently standing at 10.4606 points

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently standing at 4.90 points

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BOZmail 2020 cycle current overall profit = +5.2384 points

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LESS IS MORE: (temporarily suspended)

LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 23/36 = 63.88%  Backs: 9/26 = 34.61%

IRISH RACING – TUESDAY play in Crisis Corner

4-00 CLONMEL

Three cheers for Carlos Esqulian – known as Mr Chubby as he gets home in the final furlong carrying 5lb overweight! That’s not something you see every day but kickstarts my US effort at last and was classic LIM. Three I thought could beat the fav and they finished last,last but one and non runner! But the fav did have a question mark about getting home over the distance.Play the market. Watchword of the moment I’d say with dogs going that way too.

Have had a good look at this Irish contribution for Tuesday however with The Mullins hotpot Bachasson coming back over fences after running in the Gold Cup two years ago. Not as far clear of Death Duty as the market has him however and Gavin Brouder’s 7lb claim there is interesting. Robbie Power on Discordantly has to give weight but sure to be bombastic and might help tee it up for the Gigginstown pair. Fav is short enough to take on.

Recommendations: 

£2 LAY on BACHASSON

The Boz’s March US & Irish Racing LIM results:  (£100 bank)

18th:  -£4-10 (-£4-10) Lay @ 1.7 : Back @ 21.0

19th:   NO BET

20th:  +£2-94 (-£1-16) Lay @ 3.0

21st:   NO BET

22nd:  -£1-75 (-£2-91) Lays @ 2.25 & 10.5

23rd:  +0.294 (+£0-03) Lay @ 1.79

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March (truncated): + 1.5282 points

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 

tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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The thing about dog racing is………….

(part two)

Same as LIM small field horse races, I seek to lay the vulnerable fav and part of the epiphany has been the realisation that what makes a BAGS graded dog race fav vulnerable to defeat is nothing to do with its form. It is simply whether or not it is trapping out of a box next door to the main market/form rival in the race. The reason this matters is because many BAGS graded races are decided in the trapping and the run to the first bend. The dog who gets round the first bend best and unscathed without being checked or impeded is the dog who dictates the race from thereon. Doesn’t always go on to win but over 50% of the time does. If that dog ain’t the fav that’s half the LIM job done.

The reason being boxed next to your main rival matters is just that. You are destined for a scrap at the first bend which you might win but 50% of the time you won’t and when you add that to the 50% of leaders that don’t go on to win, you have favs that only win 25% of the time. In graded races where all dogs have a chance (that’s what graded races means – all dogs in together who are of similar ability). So a dog has a 5/1 chance of winning  on pure odds in a six dog graded race. Form has pointed it to having the time edge making it fav at much less than 5/1 (2.4 for Unknown Doll in Trap 4 above) but if boxed next to its market rival and thus the second best dog in the race it only has a 50% chance of getting round the first bend in front (making it a 10/1 chance on pure odds) and then can on occasion fail to turn its lead into victory (getting heels clipped or running wide at final bend or simply not being as far clear of its rivals as the market expected – just three of several reasons why graded races can still be lost by race leaders) making it a 20/1 chance(this is not a mathematical assertion I hasten to add just The Boz practising his blarney) . The same as the 2 dog in the above example. He started at 20/1 on the exchanges. Did he win? No, the race was won by Lutton Meghan – a 19.0 chance on the exchanges and returned at an ISP of 10/1.

Time of race win last time it won was 29.61. Trap 4 was clocking regular 29.1 or 29.2.

This race was run in 29.51. Trap 1 led pretty much all the way. 6 and 4 got out the boxes but having to jostle past the 5 meant they reached first bend behind trap 1 and weren’t good enough to claw back in a slowly run race. Trap 5 was the dog finishing at the end and registered runner up (Trap 4 was third). 5 had trapped slowly but the jostle with 4 & 6 kept him back early. Trap 6 blew his chance running wide final bend as trap 6s often do. Trap 4? Didn’t do anything visibly wrong. But something took speed from his legs so that he never accelerated and was wilting to the line and got pipped for second by the 5. That jostle out of the boxes from main market rival affected him. My stats on favs who don’t win when boxed next to main market rival suggest it.

How did the Boz bet the race? LIM principles only even more as the bookmaker than when I tip on the sheet. That’s why it’s a betting system not a tipping system (that and the market only forming in the 20 minutes before the race which you play without a race read). £2 back on traps 1,2,3 & 6 as the value in the race (no idea which of them might win). £9 lay on the fav and thus a £1 profit on the unbet Trap 5 as LIM cover. £20-60 liability on the trap 4 (on a 20/1 shot according to my weird logic above) and £38.22 winnings after commission on the result.

I played like that in over 60 races on Saturday 21st (sat out of around 40 where the fav was not boxed next to market rival(s)) with only 8 losing races where the fav won (and of course the fav does win some of the time) but turned a £300 bank into over £500 by the end of the day and similar again on Sunday.

I think it is a way to go. Watch it for a bit and see what you think. The fav in a box next to a market rival is the crux. Leave alone all races where that is not the case. And watch graded races only. Forget open races where the market is very accurate nearly 90% of the time. Also forget handicaps and hurdles races. Always back the value and pay for it with a lay on the vulnerable fav using second fav as LIM cover in general.

And let me know what you think. If I’ve discovered a system that requires no race reading, I think maybe I’ve done myself out of a job! It has to be better than the slog I’m having with US racing again! 

BOZ

P.S. Will be trialling now everyday that there is no horse racing to watch. Am working from the same bank and setting myself a target £40+ profit each day. Will be stopping when achieved and I’m still very much invoking less is more in that and resisting the temptation to simply sit playing it all day. Important that I always feel. Took me nine races on Monday to achieve target and the schedule detailed below from my Betfair account. You see I started with a chunky loser and that can of course happen. Nerve has to be held then and system stuck to. Fortunately corrected it quickly here. Played just under an hour and missed out seven of the races playable during that spell. Looking always for a fav that was boxed up against a market rival and missing the play out if that element not in evidence. 

 



Greyhound RacingShowing 1 – 9 of 9 markets

MarketStart timeSettled dateProfit/loss (£)
Greyhound Racing / CPark 23rd Mar:A6 480m23-Mar-20 12:0123-Mar-20 12:03 18.23
Greyhound Racing / PBarr 23rd Mar : D5 275m23-Mar-20 11:4823-Mar-20 11:55 -9.76
Greyhound Racing / CPark 23rd Mar:D3 265m23-Mar-20 11:4623-Mar-20 11:48 20.38
Greyhound Racing / Henl 23rd Mar : A10 460m23-Mar-20 11:3923-Mar-20 11:42 1.96
Greyhound Racing / CPark 23rd Mar : A5 480m23-Mar-20 11:3123-Mar-20 11:37 0.98
Greyhound Racing / PBarr 23rd Mar : D3 275m23-Mar-20 11:1923-Mar-20 11:27 3.92
Greyhound Racing / Henl 23rd Mar : A9 460m23-Mar-20 11:2423-Mar-20 11:25 33.38
Greyhound Racing / Swin 23rd Mar : A9 476m23-Mar-20 11:1123-Mar-20 11:19 -27.00
Greyhound Racing / CPark 23rd Mar : D2 265m23-Mar-20 11:1623-Mar-20 11:18 0.98

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