BOZmail – 24th JUNE

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

WEDNESDAY JUNE 24th  2020 

*************************************************

 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 18.9127 points (-1.0873 points)

*************************************************

TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 12.778 points (+4.876 points)

*************************************************

OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

*************************************************

SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

******************************************

Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

*************************************************

BOZmail 2020 cycle PART ONE(1/2 – 31/5) overall profit = +4.2876 points

                                      PART TWO(1/6 – 31/1 )  overall profit = +3.3197 points

PART ONE LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 25/41 = 60.97%  Backs: 9/29 = 31.03%

PART TWO LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 6/12 = 50%  Backs : 1/6 = 16.67%

************************************************************************

LESS IS MORE: 

2-20 HAMILTON

Tuesday’s Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on RUNNING BACK 

Laid @ 1.98 : Hedged 0.2pt @ 2.5 : P/L – +0.049points  

Have had a few queries questioning the wisdom of the LIM trade policy which I take on board. The concept of too many of us laying and depressing the price so that hedging back becomes impossible – even in running – is an issue I have considered when selecting the play still. Given that I am working from very restricted options.

But I am using market savvy as much as race reading skills at the moment. Picking markets I expect to see saw and I have 3/3 so far. So until I come a cropper or hear that any or too many of you have, I will persevere. The advices are not in play trades in general (although Tuesday’s became so for me in theory to optimise profit as further form study encouraged me into thinking in play trading would be safe). I’m picking ones I expect to oscillate pre race and of course being content with tiny plusses. This may be what is grating with some who are more used to gung ho erasure of deficits. The Boz don’t like deficits and I’m attempting to wipe out the June LIM without risking further damage to the bank. One of you has questioned the wisdom of Lay to Back trading per se – especially if too many of us are doing it – and I do see that concern. I was watching closely on Revolver day but saw nothing pre race to concern me. If you tried to hack out of that in play you were probably thwarted (although some 1.46 happened in running which saved those on at 1.33) so I do get the assertion that we are taking big risks this way round. But again I chose that race because I expected pre race see saw which occurred. The certainty of the market pointing to the win only happened in the hour before the off and during the race. And even then……. There was a second in that race where I looked like I might have stumbled on one. But it was a Prescott and he isn’t quite the same trainer to be taking on as Henderson is. I’ve been watching in running markets for years and have seen certs that the insiders have bundled onto come unstuck many many times despite the market sticking doggedly to them not possibly getting beat in running. My long termers will be shouting Defi Du Seuil and Beuver D’Air at this point and another of Henderson’s going back further whose name escapes me now. We got that beat at 1/9 (and a Nicholls one at 1/25 in a two horse race) which persisted right up until the last fence in that race although all sensible souls had accepted its defeat way before and started hedging against us any way they could!

I confess to being better at that sort of stuff i.e. being the only tipster in the country prepared to get the cert beat – more so in NH than flat. Just where my preferences and thus lifetime instincts lie.

On the flat I am taking no chances. Especially after causing a problem I should have been man enough to avoid. Those plays from June 13th – 15th will go down in my hall of shame I’m afraid. I’m very embarrassed by having put them up. They were poor. What we in the poetry world call ‘Forced rhymes’. Proper poets keep their gobs shut rather than spout shit poetry. I broke a cardinal rule those three days and whilst I understand and forgive why I did it, the loss still hurts. I intend to put it right best way that I can in the current climate. 

So rest assured those that doubt. These LIM trades are me being as shrewd as ever I can be with what’s in front of us at the moment. I know a lot of you voted against playing in June at all and thus aren’t. You are probably the wise ones or perhaps those that knew BOZ best. If any more of you have been struggling with making profit from these LIM plays, do say. To me it seems to be going ok for those that need, like me, to repair the June LIM damage. I am still choosing races very carefully. If it isn’t working for more than I’ve heard from, it would help to know. I can just lock us down again. There’s no law saying we have to be playing whilst all this turmoil is going on.  

So it is down to you. Wednesday’s only qualifying LIM play is a race I wouldn’t normally touch with a bargepole with four unraced sorts in it. I play purely on the price again with no suggestion of going in play unless indications that a newcomer is well fancied emerge and even then, the advice is trade before the off. Kraken Power’s price is so short again for a horse that didn’t overly impress on debut at Pontefract. Looked to fail to stay although breeding on the dam’s side would encourage that that may be overcome on this sharper track, but still an uphill finish and some lively stables sending out unknowns. So I’ll expect a see saw on the price again. Lay around the 6/5 if you can get it and hedge soon as preferential odds appear not being afraid just to go free bet again if that’s best you can get (I’m making no pretence about a race read. Totally impossible).

Or stay out. I’ve definitely no problem with any choosing that option at the minute. I’m still in because I have a deficit to repair! Haven’t had a monthly LIM deficit in UK racing for over two years. It’s a matter of pride with me!

Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on KRAKEN POWER (around 2.2 or as low as you can get to be hedged as and when preferential odds appear.)

 LIM Scores in June:

5th:  -0.355 (-0.355) Lay @ 2.02 : Back @ 9.4

6th-8th: NO BETS

9th:  +0.048 (-0.307) Lay @ 2.8 : Back @ 14.0

10th: +0.0735 (-0.2335) Lay @ 6.0

11th:  -0.23     (-0.4635) Lay @ 2.5 : Back @ 6.2

12th: +0.098  (-0.3655*) Lay @ 1.66 * arithmetic mistake corrected

13th: -0.24     (-0.6055) Lays @ 3.2 & 4.4 : Backs @ 5.0 & 7.0

14th: -0.216  (-0.8215) Lay @ 2.44

15th: -0.408  (-1.2295) Lay @ 2.54 : Backs @ 4.4 & 9.4

16th: NO BET

17th: NO BET

18th: NO BET

19th: -0.09  (-1.3195) Lay @ 1.45

20th: NO BET

21st: +0.1048 (-1.2147) Lays @ 1.33 & 14.0 :Backs @1.6 & 28.0

22nd: +0.0784 (-1.1363) Lay @ 2.12 : Backs @ 2.4 & 3.15

23td:  +0.049  (-1.0873) Lay @ 1.98 : Back @ 2.5

******************************************************************

BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Frankly Darling – Entered for The Oaks (July 4)

Muker – Entered for York (Aug 20)

Significantly – Entered for York (Aug 20) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

Malotru

English King – Entered for The Derby (July 4)

Ransom

Virgin Snow

Collinsbay – Entered for Doncaster (Sep 10)

Uncle Jumbo – Entered for Newbury(July 18)&York(Aug 20)&Doncaster (Sep 10)

On My Way

Battleground – Entered for Doncaster (Sep 10)

**********************************************************************************

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *