BOZmail 24th JULY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 


FRIDAY JULY 24th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 20.8168 points (+0.8168 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 14.2815 points (+6.2815 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.385 points (-0.615 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.03 points)

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BOZmail 2020 cycle PART ONE(1/2 – 31/5) overall profit  = +4.2876 points

                                      PART TWO(1/6 – 31/1 )  overall profit = +5.9843 points

                                          BOZmail 2020 overall score = +10.2719 points

PART ONE LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 25/41 = 60.97%  Backs: 9/29 = 31.03%

PART TWO LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 28/36 = 77.77%  Backs : 2/13 = 15.38%

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LESS IS MORE: 

Thursday’s Recommendation:

0.1pt LAY on MINELLA WARRIOR (around 2.5 or lower if you can get it)

Trade play: Laid @ 2.26 (averaged) : Hedged 0.08pt @ 2.75 : P/L = +0.0196pts

Total Trade P/L = +0.0196pts     (+0.3383pts)

 Non Trade Play P/L = +0.098pts (+0.4235pts)

4-2 after a decisive victory for the non traders with the BOZ back in kilter with his lay of the day! Fingers crossed but I think we are starting to look at the possibility now that the lockdown factor is reducing. That looked much more like a traditional LIM.

Soon as I saw Minella Warrior’s jumping, my confidence returned. Always a good sign when The BOZ starts thinking he’s understaked a play! Let’s carry on with the attempt to secure a successful lay of the day week and see what we reckon by the end of it.

7-35 NEWTON ABBOT

Looking at the last two lays, ironic that I was confident about the flat one who we were a tad lucky to get beat and less sure about beating the jumper in a game I know ten times more knowledgeably who duly came a long last in a field of four after being fairly seriously punted (but not so heavily punted as Perle Rose I note!!). Jumping was the issue for Minella and the distance did for Darling Maltaix so a pretty spot on race read.

Just a question now of believing in what I’m seeing in terms of things coming together and getting the stake up timed right and not alerting Murphys Law into an unwanted appearance! So gently gently still for a bit but modest stake-ups for a day or two now.

Quite like Friday’s play again on paper as Mr Mafia tries for some compensation for us after his second at Southwell LTO at 12/1.Unlucky that day I thought under the champ. Johnson still out with his worrying injury but he is substituted by a job jockey I like very much in James Best. Doesn’t get the chances he deserves and rides very much in Johnson’s shadow but is a rider in the Dicky and AP mold. Never gives up on their chance in a race and works hard to keep them in it. Mr Mafia is an oldish 11 years now but still looked bonny at Southwell and ran to his form coming second. Likes Newton Abbot and has mark,times and ground all in his favour so I’m very hopeful that the long drought on LIM back winners could end here. Value I think if the 11/4 tissue is accurate.

An option to pay for the bet by laying either Soldier of Love carrying his 7lb penalty or Flying Verse who is solid and likes the track but is second best in my figures to Mr Mafia. Considered the double lay and wouldn’t necessarily put anyone off that but the task I’ve charged myself with is a lay of the day streak so I’ll stick with opposing the Nicholls youngster in view of stable form and the penalty. He does have the potential in the race but will do well to carry the penalty on my figures and I’m happy to oppose because of the stable form and thus have Flying Verse as decent cover should Mr Mafia misfire.

Recommendation:

0.15pt LAY on SOLDIER OF LOVE (around 3.0. Take best price you can get)

0.075pt BACK on MR MAFIA (around 3.75 or better if possible) 

THE BOZMAIL LOCAL TRACK FACTOR SECTION:

2-40 UTTOXETER – THE STEWARD @ 25/1 -5th

3-40 UTTOXETER – MEGA DOUBLE @ 15/2 – Unplaced

2 x 0.005pt WIN SINGLES & a 0.01pt Each Way double – Total Spend = 0.03pt

Well done if you traded The Steward who was matched at 70 and hedged at 11 in running after looking a possible winner two out. Stepped that fence so did ok to stay on for fifth. Confirming stable form. Raced prominently specially for us and I’d say we can seriously look forward to Sunday despite not actually picking up winnings here! Traded Mega Double for 8 and hedged at 5.6 (went as low as 4 in running) and he got into race ok but didn’t run on. Think maybe the jockey booking was a clue as to what was expected! We may be sticking with Charlotte’s rides on Sunday. She’s the stable jock now.

 LIM Scores in July:

1st:  +0.1054   (+0.1054) Lays @ 2.22 & 2.4 : Backs @ 3.1 & 2.56

2nd: -0.126      (-0.0206) Lay @ 1.48 : Backs @ 16.0 & 40.0

3rd:  +0.0232   (+0.0026) Lay @ 1.7 : Back @ 1.96

4th:   +0.1313  (+0.1339) Lay @ 2.76 : Back @ 4.0

5th:   -0.1         (+0.0339) Back @ 3.0

6th:   NO BET

7th:   +0.098   (+0.1319) Lay @ 2.5

8th & 9th: NO BET

10th: +0.1225 (+0.2544) Lay@ 3.05 : Back @ 5.5

11th: +0.0245 (+0.2789) Lay@ 4.0 : Back @ 5.4

12th: +0.098  (+0.3769) Lay@3.75

13th: +0.098  (+0.4749) Lay@3.08 : Back @ 4.13

14th: +0.049  (+0.5239) Lay@3.6 : Back @ 13.5

15th: NO BET

16th: -0.245  (+0.2789) Lay @ 1.98 

17th: + 0.0147 (+0.2936) Lay @ 3.0 : Back @ 3.3

18th:  +0.0294 (+0.323) Lay @ 3.2 : Back @ 4.0

19th:  +0.098  (+0.421) Lay @ 2.8 : Back @ 8.6

20th:  +0.01    (+0.431) Lay @ 2.26 : Back @ 2.8

21st:  +0.0735(+0.5045) Lay @ 2.7 : Back @ 8.0

22nd: +0.1715 (+0.676) Lay @ 2.6 : Back @4.6

23rd:  +0.098   (+0.774) Lay @ 2.26

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker – Entered for York ( Aug 20)

Significantly – Entered for York (Aug 20) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

Malotru 

English King 

Ransom

Virgin Snow 

Collinsbay – Entered for Ascot (July 25) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

Uncle Jumbo – Entered for York (Aug 20) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

On My Way – Entered for Ascot (July 26)

Battleground – Entered for Doncaster (Sep 10) & Curragh (Aug 22&Sep13)

Waseem Faris 

Little Chance

Samwell (FR)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

Alicestar

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Check My Pulse 

Balagan 

Ashutor – Entered for Newton Abbot (July 24)

Sangha River 

Captain Tom Cat 

Beholden – Entered for Newton Abbot (July 24)

Lord Condi – Entered for Market Rasen (July 27)

Saint Sam (FR)

Rubytwo

Pisgah Pike

El Presente

Hiconic

For Pleasure

Young Wolf

Sirobbie

We lost a moderate horse off the list Thursday but gained two seriously good ones. Both Young Wolf and Sirobbie ran fine Chase debuts and both look to have exciting Chase careers in the making. Young Wolf is only small but he jumped super confirming that fences looks much more his game. Proved my assertion that he was the long term class in that field.

NH HORSE TO TRADE ON THURSDAY:

1-10 UTTOXETER – PERLE ROSE @ 8/1 – 0.1pt BACK

Backed @ 9.0 : Hedged 0.135pts @ 4.8 : P/L = +0.0343pts

Well done if you traded that one successfully. He took a third of the market on Betfair so someone thought he would win! I was sceptical of that but I thought he’d be a good trade and he was racing prominently throughout but ultimately did not have the racing speed to win at the business end. Extra distance caused regression rather than improvement although also a victim of the very competitive nature of fields at the moment so perhaps not fair to crab him too much. Might win on heavy going perhaps.

But done the job for us for now. I was pleased with the divi. More than I expected. A perfect segments trade. Hope those struggling with that concept have got the hang now. The price you post is an average of all those you get. Usually (but not always) a case of starting the back early if likely to be fancied. I was surprised by how much he was fancied for this. Hope that price hammer down wasn’t all our doing!!

NH HORSES TO TRADE ON FRIDAY:

7-05 NEWTON ABBOT – ASHUTOR @ 3/1 – 0.1pt BACK

8-35 NEWTON ABBOT – BEHOLDEN @4/6 – 0.1pt BACK

Take the best prices you can get and hedge as appropriate when preferential odds are on offer.

I contemplated a fixed odds win double on these because prices and circumstances don’t really lend to much likely profit trading in all truth. Beholden has to carry his penalty but did look good enough for that to be a possibility so you might just back him if you do get anywhere near even money. I do think he could be a really good one. Very interesting that Ashutor goes straight to chasing and his Sangha River form speaks well for him but my enthusiasm is tempered a little by the Nicholls stable form and the fact that this will probably be treated largely as a learning exercise. So on balance an education day rather than a gambling day to see how good these two might be for our future to follow list. There on the list though because they’ve looked impressive so I put them up as system trades to see how much profit you can muster.

(Small stakes means less risk)Good practice chance for that I’d say for those that need it and a good watch for any happy to sit out and learn for the future.

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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