BOZmail -24th JANUARY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

 

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

 

THURSDAY JANUARY 24th 2019

 

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 25.5 points after month 1

 

LESS IS MORE: THURSDAY PLAY

3-30 SOUTHWELL

Real shame about Wednesday as that looked a prime LIM race but the adage again that it’s not about yesterday, it’s about tomorrow. And there’s exciting tennis ahead (see below) and some rather splendid Irish racing to watch Thursday provided the weather misses there. Recommended that you do some festival study if you get chance.

Not much chance of UK jump racing again so I decamp onto the all weather to get my run. Only one race to take on and I don’t always like that lack of choice but always have the NO PLAY DAY option and never considered that here despite Jahbath having the obvious credentials of a very strong fav. Often my favourites to take on if negatives can be found and its more unknowns here which is nearly as good when the price is short and early tissue suggests as short as 4/6. That’ll do!

The unknown is not having run at Southwell which is always a biggie. You can surmise he’ll be ok because he travelled well and quickened up nicely on Kempton’s polytrack when it was deemed slow and that makes it more like Southwell’s sand. US dirt is the most like Southwell (although actually nothing is like Southwell and the only proof that you’ll be ok on it is having run and won there) and he has some US pedigree on the dam’s side but not much all weather evidence at all in dam and sire. And he does take a step up in class here. His other three rivals have all raced creditably at higher level with Balance of Power having recorded a class 4 victory at Newcastle and Whenapoet having won on the Fibresand LTO. Both of those can be gauged as having a chance whilst Coolagh Forest boasts very similar time credentials whilst perhaps a tad disappointing LTO at Lingfield on first step up to a mile. Is another though who isn’t tried at Southwell and could benefit therefrom. Or might hate it.

The surface is such a thing here that I’m leaning toward the outsider Whenapoet who has already run creditably in class 3 at Wolverhampton against a good John Gosden sort. Time of that race wasn’t that fast and you could argue Whenapoet’s handicap experience makes him the most exposed (out of the handicap here) but Jahbath is making handicap debut which can also be argued as a negative for him on a surface he is unproven on having to give a stone and 5lb to a horse that has already run and won here and was arguably improved by the surface. Whenapoet for me especially with a name like that!!

Recommendation:

0.3pt LAY on JAHBATH

0.1pt BACK on WHENAPOET

 

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 37/47 = 78.72% :   BACKS: 7/28 = 25%

 

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NH TO FOLLOW LIST STARTING BANK = 15 points

Stands at 14.8 points

 

The Bozmail to follow list has a combination of simply the most exciting horses I’ve seen in current race watching and a selection of those I’ve gotten to know over the years who are getting close to the place where they can be expected to win again. The list is ever changing and I have a subs bench of horses waiting to get on all the time. Candidates also disappear with regularity if they underperform or look to have shot their bolt in the win. So a fluid list that you’ll see altering all the time. I’ll log entries on this sheet as they occur and recommend staking advices on the day they are due to run after I’ve had chance to assess the race they are competing in. These selections can be backed to fixed odds or traded either in or before running as is your preference. There is profit whichever way you play over time.

 

From June 2018, The Bozmail switched to recommending trading the majority of these runners, including inplay trading, to back at optimum prices and hedge accordingly when appropriate. Profit figures were increased on previous years because of that so if you feel confident enough to approach like that, by all means. I will certainly be playing that way. I shall however post as fixed odds selections and the service arbiter will settle all results to Betfair SP in line with his fairness to all policy.

 

2019 BOZmail NH JUMPERS TO FOLLOW:

(* indicates early candidates for Cheltenham Festival Glory)

Waiting Patiently * – Entered for Leopardstown (Feb 2 & 3)

Rebel Og  

Return Ticket  

Adjourned

Dynamite Dollars – Entered for Doncaster (Jan 26)

Itchy Feet *

Frodon * – Entered for Cheltenham (Jan 26)

Ask Paddington

Lady Buttons * – Entered for Huntingdon (Jan 25) & Doncaster (Jan 26)

Ribble Valley  

La Bague au Roi *  – Entered for Leopardstown (Feb 3)

Benatar *

Captain Zebo

Magic of Light*  – Entered for Huntingdon (Jan 25)

Unwin VC

Nicolas Chauvin

Vinndication *

Valtor – Entered for Cheltenham (Jan 26)

Ruby Yeats

Lostintranslation*

Cliffs of Dover*

Ebony Gale

Zakharova  

Indian Opera – Entered for Doncaster (Jan 26)

 

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AUSTRALIAN OPEN TENNIS

 

The Quarters bet P/L = -0.35points

 

I’ve been watching Serena nigh on 20 years now and you probably gathered that I’m a big fan. Not least because she has provided some of my best betting coups over the years. Long will I remember her defeat to Sam Stosur in the 2010 French Open when I launched my biggest ever 1.1 lay in running as she was poised to close out. I had forecast Stosur’s plan to save everything for the last two games and out stamina Serena. What a smash that was.

I’ve specialised in getting Serena beat. Won some, lost some. Always had fun. But never in all those years seen anything like last night. I’d gone large on forecasting that she wouldn’t win the tournament with my Melba Toast piece if you saw that. All my picks to beat her were toast and the bet was going to be an either side of break even at best but I remained confident in it with three games still to play. Because of the above however, I was shouting for her to win last night and at 5-1 in the third I was absolutely convinced it was home. Never bothered with the small hedge on Pliskova who was at monstrous odds. Serena lose a 5-1 in the third? Do me a favour!

But my Melba Toast was accurate. Old Serena couldn’t have lost that. Ankle turn or no ankle turn. Old Serena thrived on minor injury and pain in play. It spurred her on. New Serena is a Mom and that should never be underestimated. It changes things. I’ve lived for 30 years with a profoundly loving Mom – same as Serena is – and seen how the priorities alter to it. It gets to your brain. Winning the tennis match is not an at all costs thing any more. Serena went defensive. Four match points!! Yeh, Pliskova caught the scent and moved from her broken dejection to bollocks I’ll just gung ho hit it and see where it goes and it worked. But even so, Serena paddled in no man’s land where I have hardly ever seen her before. There is the famous quote after she suffered a similarish defeat at the French against Razzano – completely lost focus and spilled six games on the bounce in an early rounds game – and was asked at a subsequent press conference how she managed to get over it to play so well this day and she fixed a cement stare on the quisling and snarled “ Who said I’m over it??”

That Serena is gone as far as I can see. She has always been a sweet person (except when talking about Sharapova!!) and scrupulously generous and fair but the  core of the competitor was always titanium. Looks to me like it can melt now. As it did in the US Open final when the umpire challenged her integrity (how dare he!!) and she wasn’t able to swat him away as once she would have. Serena softened. Motherhood can do that. At 37, she’ll have a devil’s own job to secure that record slam win with the challenging pack now very much all around her. And The Boz might switch to supporting her to do it. I took no pleasure in seeing her beaten last night. She has been a truly awesome champ.

 

But now we have an unexpected final four! And that’s my new challenge. Who’s going to win? Tough call between them. I’m not mega on it but my initial thoughts are that Kvitova is a vulnerable fav. She has been bossing but the surface isn’t her optimum and I think she’ll come up short somewhere. It is optimum for Osaka and Pliskova and Collins can’t be ruled out. She has a very close back score match v Kvitova that gives her a distinct chance if she can handle her nerves. Collins is the value still. Osaka my idea of the marginal favourite. My thoughts on bets to place as follows.

 

0.35pt LAY KVITOVA @ 2.42 in the outrights

0.1pt BACK COLLINS @ 16.0 in the outrights

0.15pt BACK OSAKA @ 3.6 in the outrights

 

I finally posted my outrights portfolio – somewhat late in the day! As per above, I’m not mega on it. Playing because I am still around break even for the tourney and a last throw of the dice to show some significant profit. Kvitova is no surprise as favourite. She came into the tournament in hitting form and has maintained that and is the senior player with the mindset of a champ on her day. Does go missing aswell though and usually on the hardcourt although no sign of that yet here. Collins is a tester for her. She could wallywhop her if the American turns up nervous but that feisty groove she showed to Garcia and Kerber and finally clicked backed into against Pavlyuchenkova will keep her alongside the Czech and then who knows. It will be about what happens between her ears. I back her without wanting to put my shirt on it and those of you who took the 350/1 (and don’t need to bet  her again here obviously) are the ones in the right seat. Good luck to you!

The favourite to win overall in my book comes from the other semi. Both groovy hardcourt players and Pliskova now flushed with the most astonishing confidence booster. What does that do to her? Inspire her? You’d like to think so but she has always been the pinnacle of blowing hot and cold. Still growing toward the champion’s mentality but she may get there. As Halep and Wozniacki finally did and Svitolina has not yet done. I prefer Osaka. She is already there and now, like Stephens and Ostapenko, has to see whether she can back it up. I like the way she handles press interviews which suggests to me that she is in general in control of her head. Her first set in the US final remains the best hardcourt tennis played in recent times and that forehand is sublime. Serve getting better and stronger all the time and of an age to still keep building and improving her game. Of all the possibles for another Graf or Evert or Navratilova, she looks most likely. Not a cert to get past Pliskova and does have some shoulder issues she talks about which stop me from going gung ho. So not a weapons grade pick. And I’ll be shouting for Collins who is already in my ‘done me a big favour’ category and will give some of you a 350/1 cream I know. For years the Boz has had to live with not backing his own advices (there are those who reckon if I mention it I should back it and the stats do prove them right!) and watching you lot with the bigger balls land the money. And I love it! We are what we are. Good luck to you all!!

 

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.5 points.

Staggered acca number 5:

 

Awaiting the emergence of the next weapons grade selection before setting out again on leg 1.

 

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Good Luck with your bets.

 

BOZ

 

The BOZmail golden rules:

 

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a price. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges)

5/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

 

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

 

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