BOZmail – 24th AUGUST

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

SATURDAY AUGUST 24th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 55.451 points after month 8 (+35.451 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +8.3313 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +7.6952 points

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LESS IS MORE: SATURDAY PLAY

3-25 CARTMEL

Been a poor week for LIM (despite all you Noble Glance collectors yesterday joining in the gang who do better at BOZmail than me!!) and must confess to feeling a bit stale on the race reading front at the moment. Can happen with the daily regime and a break needed every now and then. With the to follow trades bringing in some nice profits in the Gimcrack, I’m not concerned about overall well being. Just that need for a change and/or break. The US Open starts Monday and I’ve got the draw to study over the bank holiday weekend. August Bank Holiday is a notorious weekend for horses (either brilliant or dire and peppered with bookmaker traps) but I’ll play because it’s Cartmel and then maybe the switch to tennis next week. I am also away to Ireland for the week from the 29th and still umming and arring about whether to take the service with me. There may be some issues with Wifi reliability where I stay (rural location and school holidays put a strain on the service!) and there is also past September scores that are not great. Code turnaround time can put a strain on the form book reliability. So I may sit and watch that week and/or keep the focus on the tennis. I’ll publish what I decide before I go. I am booked to do a Paddock watch at Tipperary racecourse on the evening of August 29th so that at least should mean some horse racing action. Other than that, might concentrate on tennis from Monday until I get back on September 5th/6th.

Meanwhile a Novice Chase at Cartmel featuring old friend and disappointer Francky Du Beralis over a shorter distance. Was very disappointed in him at Market Rasen where he didn’t get home and jumping wasn’t great but form of that race has thrown up some conflicting pointers. Asylo made it look poor form in the De Plotting Shed race but Ballycrystal Court has been out and won since after finishing behind Francky that day so maybe the Bowen charge has to be given more time to show himself. Tonto’s Spirit is a standing dish at Cartmel winning 3 from 5 starts. Might have a bit to do at weights with the Irish raider but he’s another to have on our side. My back if I were playing that way would be Garo De Juilley who is a classy hurdler on chase debut and a horse whose name does it for me! If jumping, could sluice this.

Djingle is the said Irish raider and fav and they can be a swerve at Cartmel as they are often plot horses who do not reflect their formbook chance. Obviously travelling for a purpose and that is a worry but I’m inclined to take this one on face value and think his jump form so far will need to be improved upon. Not a fluent sort and you need to jump slickly and well at this fast track. I’d say they’ve come because of an expectation of the advertised bog ground (certainly rained heavy here in the week but a big drying day Friday set to continue through to race time tomorrow) because of his liking for that in France but the forecast heatwave could well find him out and with three to fancy against him, a lay is the day’s play.

Recommendations:

0.35pt LAY on DJINGLE (around 2.8 : no greater than 3.2)

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This month plays so far:

1st:       +1.244(+1.244) Lay @ 1.85 : Back @ 4.8

2nd:      -0.5465(+0.6975) Lay @ 1.99 : Back @ 3.3

3rd:       -0.024 (+0.6735) Lays @2.08 & 2.08 : Back @ 11.5

4th:       +0.045(+0.7185) Lay @ 3.45 : Back @ 11.0

5th:       +0.196(+0.9145) Lay @ 2.08

6th:        -0.48 (+0.4345) Lay @ 3.4

7th:        +0.39 (+0.8245) Lay @ 1.69 : Back @ 11.0

8th:        -0.4425(+0.382)  Lay @ 1.55 : Backs @ 6.4 & 4.1

9th:        +0.245 (+0.627) Lay @ 2.2

10th:       -0.655 (-0.028)  Lay @ 1.71 : Back @ 5.6

11th:       +0.147(+0.119) Lay @ 4.4

12th:       +0.145(+0.264) Lay @ 1.73 : Back @ 55.0

13th:       +0.145(+0.409) Lay @ 4.1 : Back @ 6.2

14th:       +1.434(+1.843) Lay @ 2.06 : Back @ 8.6

15th:        -0.3 (+1.543) Lay @ 1.6

16th:        NON RUNNER

17th:        +0.565(+2.108) Lay @ 1.55 : Back @ 4.2

18th:        +0.245(+2.353) Lay @ 2.1

19th:         -0.18 (+2.173) Lay @ 1.9

20th:         -0.35 (+1.823) Back @2.24

21st:         -0.4055(+1.4175) Lay @ 1.47 : Back @ 11.5

22nd:        +0.145 (+1.5625) Lay @1.27 : Back @ 4.3

23rd:          -0.42 (+1.1425) Lay @1.44 : Back @ 5.0

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 149/223 = 66.81% :   BACKS: 44/153 = 28.75%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Commodore Barry

Kaizer 

Caius Marcius 

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel 

Raise You – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Maydanny

Roseman – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Light Up Our Stars 

Waldpfad – Entered in Haydock Sprint Cup (Sep 7) & Ascot (Oct 19)

Miss Celestial 

Deirdre – Entered for Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown (Sep 14)&Ascot(Oct 19)

Piedita – Entered at Chepstow (Aug 26)

James Watt – Entered for Ayr Gold Cup (Sep 21)

Lord of the Lodge 

TO FOLLOW/TRADE on FRIDAY:

3-00 YORK – LORD OF THE LODGE @ 16/1 (0.5pt Backed @ 27.0 : 2.5pt @ 3.0)

Ran a blinder after getting away ok and succumbed only to the form horse fav.Looked a possible two out and easy to hedge at low prices. I had some 2.8 taken and averaged out at 3.0. Stays on the list after that.

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.12 points.

 Acca number 18: 

Will shout as the final staggered acca starter emerges.

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US OPEN PORTFOLIO:

Recommendations: 

1.5pt LAY on SERENA at around 6.4 

0.25pt BACK on IGA SWIATEK at 200/1

0.25pt BACK on CORI GAUFF at 80/1 

0.25pt BACK on SOFIA KENIN at 67.0  – 0.25pt LAY @30.0

0.25pt BACK ON DANIELLE COLLINS at 250/1  

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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