BOZmail 24th AUGUST

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

MONDAY AUGUST 24th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 22.4402 points (+2.4402 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 15.7932 points (+7.7932 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.555 points (-0.445 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.78 points)

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BOZmail 2020 cycle PART ONE(1/2 – 31/5) overall profit  = +4.2876 points

                                      PART TWO(1/6 – 31/1 )  overall profit = +8.5394 points

                                          BOZmail 2020 overall score = +12.8270 points

PART ONE LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 25/41 = 60.97%  Backs: 9/29 = 31.03%

PART TWO LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 45/58 = 77.58%  Backs : 7/27 = 25.92%

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LESS IS MORE

2-20 SOUTHWELL

Weather and market watch work for you again tomorrow in this one. Jonjo’s Lock’s Corner was heavily punted for its win LTO. Got luckyish to land with a serious rival hitting the deck at the last. Race in the balance at the time but hasn’t advertised the form since and Lock’s comes back after huge lay off so gamble must be watched for again being a JP and Jonjo runner. Has jumped fences before but not well. Seen as a chaser nevertheless after recruiting from the Point to Point field and did travel well in that LTO race coming into it late under a tender ride from Jonjo junior who is replaced by McLernon tomorrow. The market will show if they fancy it. I would have my doubts though and am in general happy to lay.Does have a serious rival anyway in Lough Har who is fav as I write and has the recent form to run a winning race – sure to be fit and ready.

And I have an outsider in the field to fancy. Two really because Johnson’s mount Twasnt the Plan comes up high on several ratings whilst not particularly explaining that in its back form. Mister Burbidge can also win on past form if it stands up but the value in the race is Caroline Bailey’s Elkstone who is back to its winning mark and thereabouts, comes from a stable with 100% on its last fortnight’s running to form chart and boasts Sean Bowen in the plate. Hungry for winners is Sean. Will be ok with some juice in the ground (that’s not proven for Lock’s corner) but that is the weather watch element. Rain is around and forecast (got serious at Cartmel today and scuppered The Steward) and the more that comes will increase the chance of the upset. Elkstone came in 6th LTO but not far behind YCCS Portocervo who ran well enough over a too short distance at Cartmel today carrying his penalty in a couple of grades higher than this and in unsuitable ground. That bdoes well for Elkstone’s chance at 14/1 or better if you can get it. Especially if the paddock or market watch don’t go well for Lock’s corner who is a different horse since wind op (as so many prove to be).Price is as is because of that and the connections but he is very unproven over fences and we know how stiff it gets at Southwell. You gotta jump!

Recommendations:

0.2pt  LAY on LOCK’S CORNER (around 3.3 but you may well get shorter)

0.1pt BACK on ELKSTONE (around 15.0)

LIM scores for August:

1st :  NO BET

2nd : +0.0886  (+0.0886) Lay @ 1.93 : Back @ 7.0

3rd:   +0.0245  (+0.1131) Lay @ 3.75

4th:   +0.385    (+0.4981) Lays @ 3.75 & 3.3 :Backs @ 15.0 & 3.75

5th:   +0.0671 (+0.5652) Lay @ 2.38 & 14.0 : Backs @ 19.0 & 4.0

6th:    NON RUNNER

7th:    +0.049  (+0.6142) Lay @ 4.4 : Back @ 7.0

8th:    -0.475 (+0.1392) Lay @ 2.5 : Back @ 6.4

9th:    NO BET

10th:  +0.441 (+0.5802) Lay @ 3.75 : Back @ 8.0

11th:  +0.686 (+1.2662) Back @ 6.6

12th:  +0.0392 (+1.3054) Lay @ 3.75 : Back @ 5.9 

13th:   NON RUNNER

14th:   +0.0294 (+1.3348) Lay @ 1.94 : Back @ 2.2

15th:   NO BET

16th:    -0.124  (+1.2108) Lays @ 2.8 & 4.2

17th:   NO BET

18th:    +0.147 (+1.3578) Lay @ 1.98 : Back @13.0

19th:    NON RUNNER

20th:    -0.018 (+1.3398) Lay @ 1.44 : Back @ 1.54

21st:    +0.147(+1.4868) Lay @ 2.7 : Back @ 8.8

22nd:   -0.1    (+1.3868) Back @ 5.2

23rd:    +0.196 (+1.5828) Lay @ 3.0

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THE FINAL LOCAL TRACK FACTOR SECTION of 2020:

12-45 Cartmel : Mustang Alpha – 3rd

1-15 Cartmel : Diodorus – 2nd

1-45 Cartmel : Altruism – 2nd

Total spend on the day: 0.35 points  : Return nil.    

Not a great return to my bet of the year unless of course you were one of the nineteen BOZmail subscribers to the shortlist that already knows the shortlist put Beeno in with the surviving two Moffat runners as its only three selections. Sadly the Boz left that fact off here and said in his shortlist publication that he was only including Beeno out of loyalty to the shortlist and the knowledge that it has gotten more right than him over the 20 odd years he’s been compiling it. To make Bozmailers feel slightly better, I said over there that Beeno wouldn’t win and was only in the combination tricast. Well done if you worked out for yourself that Beeno was the one to be on and included him in as the substitute when Golden Town was declared a non runner. I did of course manage to get the LIM right and was correct about the Steward turning round the LTO form and also that Altruism was the main one of the Moffat three once the rain fell. The Steward sadly was unable to cope with the ground at the death. He had Beeno well held on last year’s ground but too soft blunts his finishing speed. That importance of being a weatherman again! Pretty vital when you live in Cartmel. It seriously knows how to rain here and we had a few stair rod jobs today mixed in with the sunshine.

So the Local track factor was not able to help the BOZmail as I’d hoped it would and rather like the Royal Ascot bets I had intended to omit when I planned this year, we would have been better off without. Add those two mistakes and the messes I made playing overseas in April and May and we are roughly two and a half points below where we could have been and no doubt some of you are. Those who told me to bite the bullet and just stick to LIM and the trading you are confident with (and take two months off!) proved well and truly right.

Lesson learned here. No messing in stuff I know is lesser grade fare again (but source of the odd good winner in the past of course. Wouldn’t have introduced it but for that). Can be done without and a smaller return year should have been accepted earlier. I could have had my holidays in April and May. Know that now. They were planned for September of course. That idea binned long ago. Plan to work right through September now using the new stop/start that we have seen in LIM throughout August. Still on the recovery trail!

The new normal!          

BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker 

Ransom

Battleground – Entered for  Curragh (Sep13)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

Alicestar – Entered at Yarmouth (Aug 25) & Lingfield (Aug 26)

Custard The Dragon – Entered at Musselburgh (Aug 26)

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Check My Pulse 

Balagan 

Ashutor 

Sangha River 

Captain Tom Cat 

Lord Condi 

Saint Sam (FR)

Rubytwo – Entered at Bangor (Aug 25)

Pisgah Pike – Entered for Sedgefield (Aug 27)

Hiconic

Young Wolf

Sirobbie 

Little Jessture 

Soldier of Love 

Lady Bowes 

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Sporting Press

Global Tour 

Samsons Reach 

Leoncavallo

Longhouse Sale

Oscar Rose – Entered for Sedgefield (Aug 27)

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April         : – 0.1733 points

May          : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June         : + 0.0428 points

July          : + 0.8046 points  (+2.7744points)

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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