BOZmail – 24th APRIL

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

WEDNESDAY APRIL 24th 2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stands at 36.0395 points after month 4

LESS IS MORE: WEDNESDAY PLAY

1-30 FONTWELL

Spent a lot of time on the Fontwell card for tomorrow where I will be looking to play and get short priced favourites beat. Initially had the Double Treasure race chalked up for LIM play and then Waikiki Waves’ race but have talked myself out of both of them in the end and look to take on Polo The Mumm instead.

Quite a soft race so another that Polo could win by default but several negatives attached including the penalty for win LTO (also not a strong race), the drop down in trip which is not born out on form or breeding but did seem to bring improvement in that win LTO. Not in a good time however and I do think Ortenzia will be competitive on times. Final negative is that stable running to form % which is very low in the Dunn case. So not keen on odds on and whilst the opposition is thin with Primogeniture ruled out (which makes him Murphys fav to win of course and there is the fact that he is a very surprising entry for a Handicap Chase), I do like the jockey booking on Sir Dylan who has yet to get his head round chasing but was a decent hurdler with a good record here. Schofield likewise rides Fontwell very well and he is my value play in the race – the caveat being the stable % not good at chez Gundry either.

All in all, another not overly confident day. Stakes are not as they might otherwise have been.

Recommendation:

0.4pt LAY on POLO THE MUMM (around 1.7 : not greater than 2.2)

0.1pt BACK on ORTENZIA

0.1pt BACK on SIR DYLAN

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This month plays so far:

1st: NON RUNNER  

2nd:   +0.355 (+0.355) LAY @ 1.9 : BACK @ 2.6

3rd:     -0.6 (- 0.245) LAY @  2.5 : BACK @ 10.0

4th:     +0.24 (- 0.005) LAY @  3.8

5th:     +0.044(+0.039) LAY @ 3.5 : BACK @ 3.5

6th:     +0.343(+0.382) LAY @ 2.2

7th:     +0.39 (+0.772) LAY @ 2.52 : BACK @ 12.0

8th:     – 0.52 (+0.252) LAYS @ 3.6 & 4.7 : BACK @ 9.2

9th:     – 0.26 (- 0.008) LAY @ 1.8 : BACK @ 8.0

10th:   – 0.276(- 0.284) LAY @ 1.88 : BACK @ 22.0

11th:   – 0.34 (- 0.624) LAY @ 2.2  : BACK @ 10.5

12th:   +0.343 (- 0.281) LAY @ 3.2

13th:   +0.294 (+0.013) LAY @ 3.4

14th:   +0.243 (+0.256) LAY @ 3.2 : BACK @ 7.0

15th:   +0.545 (+0.801) LAY @ 4.0 : BACK @ 4.5

16th:   +0.193 (+0.994) LAY @ 2.86 : BACK @ 6.0

17th:   +0.098 (+1.092) LAY @ 4.0

18th:   +0.193 (+1.285) LAY @ 2.42 : BACK @ 8.69

19th:    +0.624 (+1.909)LAY @ 2.4(in running) : BACK @ 4.3

20th:    +0.243 (+2.152)LAY @ 2.0 : BACK @ 38.0

21st:     +0.194 (+2.346)LAY @ 2.62 : BACK @ 28.0

22nd:    +0.686 (+3.032)LAY @ 1.7

23rd:     +0.194 (+3.226)LAY @ 2.7

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 92/128 = 71.87% :   BACKS: 20/83 = 24.09%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Endless Credit

Opechee

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Rocket Action

King of Comedy

Land of Legends

Edaraat

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10.054 points.

Staggered acca number 9: (LEG 3)

Will shout when the next leg emerges.  

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz

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