BOZmail 23rd SEPTEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet 

WEDNESDAY SEPTEMBER 23rd  2020 

BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +16.4402 points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 25.2671 points (+5.2671 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 20.1586 points (+12.1586 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 5.1635 points (+0.1635 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 79/112 = 70.53%  Backs : 21/68 = 30.88%

NO BET

No LIM qualifier on Wednesday over the jumps and no need to force the issue there with a couple of nice trades to go at Perth (see below).

LIM SCORES FOR SEPTEMBER:

1st:  +0.196  (+0.196) Lay @ 3.55

2nd: NO BET

3rd:  -0.345  (-0.149) Lay @ 3.3

4th: NO BET

5th: NO BET

6th:  +0.1764 (+0.0274) Lay @ 1.84

7th: NO BET

8th:  -0.1         (-0.0726) Back @ 12.0

9th:  +0.3234 (+0.2508) Back @ 3.2

10th: NO BET

11th: NO BET

12th: -0.465 (-0.2142) Lay @ 2.86

13th: NO BET

14th: NO BET

15th: +0.4441 (+0.2299) Lay @ 2.2 : Back @ 3.45

16th: NO BET

17th: +0.098  (+0.3279) Lay @ 1.8 : Back @ 14.0

18th: NO BET

19th: +0.4042 (+0.7321) Back @ 3.75

20th: +0.098  (+0.8301) Lay @ 2.4 : Back @ 16.0

21st:  -0.31    (+0.5201) Lay @ 2.3 : Back @ 6.0

22nd: NON RUNNER

23rd: NO BET

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker 

Ransom

Battleground – Entered for Newmarket (Sep26) & (Oct 10)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

Alicestar

Custard The Dragon 

Plainchant(FR)

Aramhes(FR)

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Check My Pulse – Entered for Perth (Sep 24)

Sangha River 

Captain Tom Cat 

Saint Sam (FR)

Pisgah Pike 

Hiconic 

Young Wolf 

Sirobbie 

Little Jessture 

Soldier of Love 

Lady Bowes(soft) 

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Sporting Press 

Samsons Reach 

Leoncavallo – Entered in the Cesarewitch (Oct 10)

Longhouse Sale 

Oscar Rose 

She’s a Rocca(heavy)

Charm Offensive

Timetoroe(heavy)

Baby Jane

Caius Marcius

Calum Gilhooly

The Butcher Said

Leapaway

Return Ticket(flat track)

NH TO FOLLOW TRADE PLAYS on TUESDAY:

4-40 WARWICK – YOUNG WOLF @7/4 – 0.25pt BACK

Backed @ 3.85 : hedged 0.125pt @ 2.34 & 0.125pt@ 1.08 : P/L = +0.5243pts

Initially got on at 4.1 but the two non runners changed the dynamic of the race somewhat. Both were fancied opposition and the market reacted accordingly starting to smash into the Young Wolf price. I got busy with extra form study and you’ll know that I know a fair bit about Mr Mafia and convinced myself that he might be serious opposition on the front end potentially putting some strain on the Young Wolf jumping as a young ‘un still learning its trade. So I talked myself out of letting it be a back only and stuck into the staggered trade aiming for free bet. Took 50% before the off as the market continued to pile in with the idea of not bothering with the other 50% if I liked what I saw in running. To be honest it was not a totally convincing round of jumping by Young Wolf and Mr Mafia did get him a couple of times with better jumps but always Young Wolf seemed to be tanking on the flat and, pretty sure stable money was on and he remained up front with the pace, I retained my nerve. Two out my first wobble as Mr Mafia did succumb as was likely (but not certain) on evidence this year and Vivas and Paddleyourowncanoe served up the challenge with the former briefly taking the lead between the last two. I did try a hedge in that spell that never got matched and thought I was on a loser just before the last and the market thought same as the price briefly splashed out making a further lay no go. The horse showed his mettle however and stayed on at the death in the way Blue N Yellow did not on Monday. He is a good ‘un right enough and stays on our list. I did have a 1.08 lay still live which I wasn’t quick enough to cancel so gave a tad unnecessary back but never begrudge that really in trading terms when they go on to win when it hadn’t always seemed certain. Was a rollercoaster one but further proof of the trader in me these days I think. You did better if you sat tight and just did the back! So long as you got last night’s price that is. No matter what really. It all comes down to the prices you get in the end. Two good days of trading bottom line that would have been just two good days if I’d also been wise enough to trade Blue N Yellow out when I had chance! 

NH TO FOLLOW TRADE PLAYS on WEDNESDAY:

2-30 PERTH – SHE’S A ROCCA @ 9/1 – 0.15pt BACK

3-05 PERTH – SPORTING PRESS @ 11/1 – 0.15pt BACK

Get the best price that you can and hedge as appropriate and when preferential odds are offered.

You could play these as 0.1pt BACKS. Depends what mood you are in and you do have the choice. Both are a bit speculative and after good winnings yesterday, I’m inclined to keep going steady just nudging the profit forwards and thus trading both to show a profit on each. The news today was such as to make you want to go gung ho and say sod ‘em but at the end of the day, I’ve accepted lowered expectations for 2020 now. I think you have to. We make 60% or 70% of target, we’ll have done well.

So staying solid me unless I see reason to switch to back only like I nearly did yesterday! 

She’s A Rocca is a big to follow for this winter season such as it is being the winner of the pivotal Lady Bowes race from last year. Keep your notebook out for this one and watch keenly. She promises much. Will need to jump better than she did LTO but from the Richards yard, is sure to come on a ton for that run. Would also seem to want boggy ground although that not assured yet. On the book, has an each way shout  but opened 12/1 on the tissue and quickly trimmed to 9/1 suggesting the stable might be investing. Keep an eye on that price. Get the best that you can and trade as you see fit when time is ripe.

Sporting Press is more speculative. Didn’t show much on debut for Paula Smith but gets another chance here on the basis of that second to Defi Sacre last year. That was promising form. Has had wind op and very much a maybe for the list from here. This go and one more before off the list if no improvement shown. Definite pre race trade for me this one.price may drift for a while so I’ll be backing in segments. Will be looking to green before the off and happy to take any kind of small guaranteed plus.

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April         : – 0.1733 points

May          : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June         : + 0.0428 points

July          : + 0.8046 points  

August    :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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