BOZmail – 23rd OCTOBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 23rd  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 57.666 points after month 9 (+37.666 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +13.1887 points

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BOZMAIL 2019 COMBINED PROFIT TOTAL = +58.436 points

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LESS IS MORE: WEDNESDAY PLAY

2-05 FONTWELL

Did you play cautiously on Wednesday when you saw Thistle Do Nicely wasn’t running? If you did, you are getting as cautious as I am! When Moonlighter fell I thought we’d been wise as he had served it up to the fav and left the race for the Nicholls horse to win. But SS was the other debutant in the race and it matters not the yard they come from. Winning first time out over fences is never easy. He’d been jumping consistently left throughout forfeiting ground and not looking at all pretty and in the final straight, those exertions took their toll as the two experienced chasers came at him with the top drive from Aidan Coleman getting his mount up. That hadn’t looked likely three fences out! Beginners Chases. And when your luck and form is in, your luck and form is in. Things just go the way you expect and want them to. Never ceases to mystify me why it doesn’t happen all the time! 

My strong bet of the day for Wednesday runs at Fontwell and is the fourth leg of the staggered acca (see below). Pretty keen as well on this race however as Finnegan’s Garden tries to land his four timer after going up eight pounds. Back from his summer break in this and can be expected on past form to benefit from the run. So is a lay at around 6/4. Two I fancy against him with the value lying in Flight to Milan who had his form franked by Wencelaus’ win yesterday. That was a fast race they both ran in at Stratford behind the classy Marie Banrigh and on earlier April form behind Chozen, Flight to Milan looks poised to serve it up to the Davison horse here giving a couple of pounds in weight  but getting it back in jockey allowance. Times on the ground are comparable and the key to this match up is the recent run for Evan Williams’ horse who is bound to come on for that. Stable aren’t on top form but Silver Streak won at the weekend and Agent Westy yesterday travelled well until he fell. I’d be confident they are ready to take on Finnegan’s here but that said, I also fancy the chance of Way Out West who gets weight from both and comes from the 100% form in running stable of Robert Walford. No value in his price though whereas at 6/1 Flight to Milan represents excellent value.

My LIM play is a small back on Flight to Milan covered by the lay on Finnegan’s Garden but I’m also posting a shortlist inspired multiple to follow bet for the day that perms the two I fancy in this race. See below for details of that.

Recommendations:

0.2pt LAY on FINNEGAN’S GARDEN (around 2.5 : no greater than 2.8)

0.05pt BACK on FLIGHT TO MILAN (around 7.0)

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BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 177/269 = 65.79% :   BACKS: 52/183 = 28.41%

This month’s scores so far:

1st:    -0.838 (-0.838) Lay @ 2.68 : Back @ 3.3

2nd:   -0.216 (-1.054) Lay @ 2.08

3rd:    +0.245(-0.809) Lay @ 1.66

4th:    +0.144(-0.665) Lay @ 2.6 : Back @ 12.0

5th:    +0.294 (-0.371) Lay @2.62

6th:    +0.145 (-0.226) Lay @ 4.09 : Back @ 5.0

7th:    -0.408 (-0.634) Lay @ 1.88 : Back @ 13.0

8th:    +0.558(-0.076) Lay @ 2.8 : Back @ 2.76

9th:    +0.196(+0.12) Lay @ 3.75

10th:  +0.49 (+0.61) Lay @ 1.76

11th:  +0.343(+0.953) Lay @ 3.0

12th:  -0.2   (+0.753) Back @ 1.99

13th:  RACING ABANDONED-WATERLOGGING

14th:  -0.64 (+0.113) Lay @ 2.8 : Back @ 32.0

15th:  -0.1   (+0.013) Back @ 6.0

16th:  -0.895 (-0.882) Lay @ 1.86 : Back @ 17.0

17th:  +0.097(-0.785) Lay @ 3.8 : Back @ 209.0

18th:  +1.535 (+0.75) Lay @ 1.96 : Back @7.0

19th:  +0.894 (+1.644) Lays @ 3.1,4.0 & 5.6 : Back @7.0

20th:  +0.147 (+1.791) Lay @ 4.0

21st:  +0.975 (+2.766) Back @ 4.9

22nd:  +0.196 (+2.962) Lay @ 1.8

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10.792 points. 

(FOURTH LEG:)

4-20 FONTWELL – LOVE THE LEADER – 0.792pt BACK at 5/6

Favourite but odds on so a need to search around and get best price. I was promised 7/4 when I asked early but tissue is much shorter. Layers have done their homework too! Love the Leader ticks all my boxes for this race. Starting with the 7 day system. Out again after six days ago win at Wincanton off same mark and in less competitive race. The second runs early at Worcester so we will have  form boost or otherwise if you want to wait until after that before staking but I’m confident both will run well again. Love the Leader got a master ride there from our man in form (3/3 in past fortnight) conditional Luca Morgan who is a seriously impressive conditional. Rode master races on Friday and Saturday last week aboard Skeaping for a quick double and was similarly impressive on this boy. He puts him right at fences with smooth acceleration and survived a rough barging match early at Wincanton without panicking and riding an effortless cruise through the field to win with strength and determination. The horse is a time of year horse who has run up a sequence of wins at this time of year twice before in quick succession. Trainer Johnny Farrelly stands only at 25% on the running to form radar in the past two weeks but the 2 of his 8 that have run to form have both won and this boy is one of those. So stable strike rate is also 25% and can be taken as in form. Ground and distance to suit. Small cases could be made for the other four runners but none outscore the fav on times. The clincher for me is that jockey booking. My Fontwell nap of the day on a day I fancy a few and a worthy fourth leg for the staggered acca.!  

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

La Bague au Roi

Unwin VC

Commodore Barry

Kaizer – Entered at Cheltenham (Oct 26)

Raya Time

Tea Clipper

Nube Negra

Ballymoy

Verdana Blue

Maire Banrigh

Wenceslaus 

Tokaramore 

Flic Ou Voyou

Thyme Hill

Nordano

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes

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TO FOLLOW MULTIPLE AT FONTWELL ON WEDNESDAY

2-05 FONTWELL – FLIGHT TO MILAN & WAY OUT WEST @ 6/1 & 15/8

3-15 FONTWELL – REALLYRADICAL @ 15/8

4-20 FONTWELL – LOVE THE LEADER @ 5/6

I haven’t had the material for an acca on the same day for a while but I’m keen on this Fontwell treble and although prices are all a bit shorter than I was hoping for, I play the perm as 2 x 0.1pt WIN TREBLES (Total spend from the To Follow pot = 0.2pts). Pays around 35/1 the first and 14/1 the second although my published prices are early tissue and I’m very hopeful we’ll get better on Love the Leader at least. You might, as with the staggered acca bet, want to see how The Boola Bee runs in the 12-15 at Worcester before placing the above as that is a direct formline for Love The Leader. The Boola Bee was in the acca but is not certain to like the ground at Worcester. Should it finish 1st or 2nd in that race however take that as a filip for this bet. And a poorish run won’t put me off. Just a little more cautious perhaps. And part of the tactic for me is that if Flight to Milan and Reallyradical win as they look distinct possibles to do, I will be in a strong position to hedge a bit of my staggered acca bet. Not because I’m not confident of it. Just because I’m a trader at heart and all things are possible in jump racing. A chance to cover bets and still make money is always in my thinking. I shan’t be staking down on Love the Leader in the staggered acca (unless he looks pants in the paddock!!) but I may well hedge some of this 36/1 treble to cover my staggered acca stake so that I then win even should love the Leader fail. Just my way. I know some of you won’t play like that and that’s what makes this game such fun!

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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