BOZmail 23rd OCTOBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet 

FRIDAY OCTOBER 23rd  2020 

BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +36.8998 points

*************************************************

 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 27.7602 points (+7.7602 points)

*************************************************

TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 38.3251 points (+30.3251 points)

*************************************************

OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.9635 points (-0.0365 points)

*************************************************

SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

******************************************

Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

*************************************************

Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

*************************************************

LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 96/132 = 72.72%  Backs : 25/80 = 31.25%

NO BET

Well I took the LIM to 11/11 but more poignantly called a forecast for the second day running that involved the two outsiders in the field! One of these days, I’ll learn to tip those! Well done if you followed it again. I think maybe my noticing the amount of rain falling yesterday was the clincher. It hasn’t stopped again here all day today either. Off to check if Cheltenham has been getting the same.

Tomorrow is a big day at HQ. Ostensibly the opening day of the NH season with some mouthwatering contests lined up.

Three of our top To Follow horses turn out and two of them in LIM qualifiers. I have looked at both races in detail but decided to sidestep both for LIM purposes and take a deserved day’s break there. The reasoning is that on paper the favourites in each race – Galvin and Fusil Raffles – both look outstanding on paper. The former does have some distance issues to prove but he is a juicy price too for such a horse so although I’ll be taking him on with Soldier of Love, I decided not to use the LIM vehicle to do it in. Same for Return Ticket also. Does have a chance of lowering the Fusil colours and is a serious value price but I’m utilizing the To Follow and occasional acca accounts for tomorrow’s play. See below. LIM gets a day off!

LIM SCORES FOR OCTOBER:

1st: NO BET

2nd: +0.196  (+0.196) Lay @ 4.1

3rd:  -0.18     (+0.016) Lay @ 2.2

4th:  +0.147  (+0.163) Lay @ 4.4

5th: NO BET

6th: NO BET

7th:  -0.54     (-0.377) Lay @ 3.2 : Back @ 16.5

8th:  -0.392  (-0.769) Lay @ 2.12

9th: +0.441  (-0.328) Lay @ 1.25 : Back @ 8.0

10th: -0.1     (-0.428) Back @ 2.4

11th: +0.294 (-0.134) Lay @ 1.94 : Back @ 4.0

12th: NO BET

13th: +0.1558 (+0.0218) Back @ 2.59

14th: +0.098   (+0.1198) Lay @ 2.4

15th:  +0.245  (+0.3648) Lay @ 2.7 (averaged and after 22% Rule 4 deduction)

16th:  +0.196  (+0.5608) Lay @ 2.7

17th:  +0.4459 (+1.0067) Lay @ 1.7 : Back @ 3.05

18th:  +0.245  (+1.2517) Lay @ 2.3

19th:  +0.196  (+1.4477) Lay @ 4.35

20th:  +0.196  (+1.6437) Lay @ 2.7 : Back @ 12.5

21st:  +0.147  (+1.7907) Lay @ 2.9 : Back @ 11.5

22nd: +0.2154 (+2.0061) Lay @ 3.6 

23rd: NO BET

*************************************************************************************

BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker 

Ransom

Battleground – Entered for Irish Guineas(May 22)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5) & Irish Guineas (May 22)

Plainchant(FR) 

Aramhes(FR)

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Straw Fan Jack

McFabulous

Flic Ou Voyou 

Soaring Glory

Israel Champ

Bravemansgame

Sangha River

Captain Tom Cat 

Saint Sam (FR)

Pisgah Pike – Entered @ Wincanton (Oct 25)

Young Wolf 

Sirobbie      -Entered @ Cheltenham (Oct 24)

Soldier of Love 

Lady Bowes(soft) – Entered @ Ayr (Oct 26)

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Leoncavallo 

Oscar Rose 

She’s a Rocca(heavy) 

Charm Offensive – Entered @ Ayr (Oct 26)

Timetoroe(heavy)

Baby Jane

Caius Marcius – Entered @ Aintree (Oct 25)

Calum Gilhooly 

The Butcher Said

Mrs Hyde

Return Ticket(flat track) 

Redford Road

Not That Fuisse(good/good to soft) – Entered @ Cheltenham (Oct 24)

Carroll’s Milan

Prettylittlething 

Wenceslaus

Boothill

Al Dancer

Onemorefortheroad

Stormy Ireland

Eldorado Allen

For Pleasure

Fidelio Vallis (softish ground)

Enrichissant

Zamani

Uncanaver

Ribble Valley

NH HORSES TO FOLLOW(TRADE?) at Cheltenham on Friday:

2-25 SOLDIER OF LOVE (best priced 11/2 with BOYLESPORTS) 0.1pt BACK

3-00 CAPTAIN TOM CAT (best priced 13/2 with BETVICTOR) 0.1pt BACK

4-45 RETURN TICKET (best priced 10/1 with WILLIAM HILL) 0.1pt BACK

Well Cheltenham does not appear to have had the rain Carlisle had and is forecast dry for the most part between now and racing so the good,good to soft ground does look likely and that should be ok for all three of ours and I do think the 535/1 Treble is a possibility here. I’m having a fiver on! Fiver doubles also just in case.

The singles could arguably be best as trades (I’m leaving that decision up to you for now. Gamblers gamble, traders trade. Which are you? Today I side with the gamblers!) at those prices and all three are speculative hunch bets really based on the fact that this is first day of the NH season really now and collateral form between the horses on show is hard to be scientific about. Captain Tom Cat has a cavalry charge to overcome for him to win and is the least fancied because of that. But Dr Newland targets the race and won it last year and has saved CTC for this. He has a nothing weight made so by the stable 7lb claimer on board and so is attracting market attention and is fav in my tissue. Certainly has the on paper to score (form of both summer wins franked) but in true Cheltenham style so do about eight others! Proper horse race this one with 20 due to go to post. Always enjoy shouting these sorts home!

The other two do have LIM potential for the upset but Fusil Raffles could be a serious Henderson beast and is hard to take on with his hurdles form. Jumping wasn’t great on chase debut win but flat speed and manner of victory was. And there’s Getaway Trump who also has stable credentials but Return Ticket looked the part to me as a novice hurdler and he’s come steadily to himself over fences under Rebecca’s care. Doesn’t get the flat track my notes say he needs but Sedgefield win was achieved on undulations so perhaps not such a big deal for him after all. And that time was impressive. A chasing sort. Marvellous value at 10/1 in a four horse race. All he has to do now is go and win! I shall seriously enjoy it if I got him right as a Cheltenham possible two years ago when I first saw him. This is his first big test. Gallops. Now just has to jump likewise!

The nap of the three would be Soldier of Love who might have preferred another two furlongs and any move to required stamina should play to his strengths. The Irish pair do both look possible to get at but are longer prices than I’d want to lay at and they have made the effort to travel so connections are obviously keen on them. And the three chasing debutantes can’t be discarded either with Mossy Fern in particular catching my eye. Also that Ruth Jefferson runs her new star here. Malcolm was never that keen to risk his good ones at Cheltenham.I’ll have a keen eye on her. Any of the three could be primed to show that the chasing arena was meant for them.

We have a good one in it who has an on paper squeak and Nicholls has farmed the race over the years but make no mistake that it is a mighty hot race this one.

Best NH race since the Festival in March by a country mile.

So the thing for me is enjoy the experience! They are three horses that come to the table because The BOZ thought they were worth following and showed a stamp of potential class. Form backs it up. So a definite chance. I’ve pulled a treble like this before and am at least coming in to it in a bit of form! Could easily be three flops as well though. Wouldn’t be Cheltenham without that. And so, relatively cautious staking.

3 x 0.1pt WIN SINGLES : 1 x 0.05pt WIN TREBLE : 3 x 0.05pt WIN DOUBLES.

Total Spend = 0.5pts to be taken from the occasional acca and to follow/trade banks.

Enjoy!

*******************

LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April         : – 0.1733 points

May          : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June         : + 0.0428 points

July          : + 0.8046 points  

August    :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

***************************************************************************

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *