BOZmail 23rd NOVEMBER

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Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet

MONDAY NOVEMBER 23rd  2020

 LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 111/155 = 71.61%  Backs : 30/97 = 30.92%

12-05 MUSSELBURGH

Continuing on the back foot after four LIM losers in the last six and busy giving winnings back which is never nice. Need a good one and have to say I have at least found that. Just wish I didn’t need this one so much to stop the rot. A bet to look forward to nevertheless.

Gaelik Coast will have his supporters after three straight wins including a chase debut but although there may be more to come, he has a seven pound penalty to shoulder on handicap debut and that traditionally asks quite a lot of a horse. Times suggest also that he may have some more to find against Ruinous and Lucky Flight and even more so against our boy Return Ticket who gets his flat track preference again here.No Fusil Raffles and a wind op to stop that flag that happened to him at Cheltenham. Ground also in his favour. Only slight negative is the absence of usual jockey Henry Brooke out injured. Sean Quinlan however is solid cover and Irish dark horse Ruinous makes for LIM cover with Lucky Flight held on the previous Perth form.

Gaelik Coast is 7/4 as I write but may well attract money given stable/jockey connection and you might want to wait a bit on the price there. I would expect it to go shorter.

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on GAELIK COAST (around 2.8 or preferably lower. Get the best price you can)

0.15pt BACK on RETURN TICKET (around 4.5)

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BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Wild Polly

Straw Fan Jack 

McFabulous

Flic Ou Voyou 

Soaring Glory – Entered @ Wetherby (Nov 25)

Israel Champ

Bravemansgame 

Sangha River 

Pisgah Pike 

Young Wolf 

Lady Bowes(soft)

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre 

Leoncavallo

Oscar Rose 

Charm Offensive 

Timetoroe(heavy) 

Baby Jane

Calum Gilhooly 

Mrs Hyde 

Return Ticket(flat track) 

Prettylittlething 

Boothill

Al Dancer – Entered@ King George (Dec 26)

Eldorado Allen 

For Pleasure 

Ribble Valley – Entered in the Fighting Fifth,Newcastle (Nov 28)

Shan Blue

Shang Tang

Snow Leopardess 

Marble Sands

Dusart 

Bobby Bow (heavy)

Summerville Boy

Ga Law

Hitman

First Flow

NH HORSES TO FOLLOW/TRADE on SUNDAY:

2-28 UTTOXETER – SIROBBIE @ 15/2 – 0.25pt BACK – 3rd

Backed @ 10.0 :0.15pt hedged at 8.2 & 0.15pt @ 5.2 in play : P/L = + 0.049pts

Decent trade leaving myself over 0.5pts profit to use should he get involved in the finish but that never looked likely really. Stayed on well for the place but always in the shadow of the clear Skelton layout horse which was flagged up by the market. That might be it for Sirrobbie for a while now. Will need his handicap mark to come back down. Not blotted his copybook. Always runs a game race. Will be followed again in the future.

NH HORSES TO FOLLOW/TRADE on MONDAY:

1-25 KEMPTON – SANGHA RIVER @ 10/1 – 0.1pt BACK

3-45 KEMPTON – PISGAH PIKE @ 15/8 – 0.1pt BACK

Get the best price that you can and hedge as appropriate and/or when preferential odds appear.

Not overly keen on either of these. Certainly not as backs. Sangha River is a price but will need a miracle against Sishkin who has to do something seriously wrong or be simply out for a hack canter to lose this. Would probably still win! Different class. I will watch the market and if getting an irresistible price on Sangha, will buy in increments on a drifting price but possibility of a no chance to hedge type bet so those not keen on trading losers can simply pass on this. You are basically throwing money at one betting here. Of course they do win sometimes but not really the spirit in which I play any more. I leave it with you…… I may well decide to pass.

Pisgah Pike owes us nothing of course and should give a chance to trade for a smidgeon if you time it right. Free bet at worst. I like the horse a lot but there are dangers here and The Twisler in particular presents a big threat. Cogital and Zamani also receive hefty weight concession and would have a fair chance. I did actually look at playing Pisgah Pike as the LIM lay but found a better race. So this is just a token low grade trade in the just maybe win category. The weight concession all round is a big offputter and the conditional jockey factor likewise. I play out of loyalty! He won’t owe me anything for the rest of his career! 

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March  : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April     : – 0.1733 points

May      : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June     : + 0.0428 points

July      : + 0.8046 points 

August :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

October : + 2.1487 points (+7.9028 points)

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LIM Scores for November:

1st: +0.049 (+0.049) Lay @ 3.45 : Back @ 8.8

2nd: NO BET

3rd: +0.1543 (+0.2033) Back @ 2.05

4th:  NO BET

5th:  +0.098   (+0.3013) Lay @ 1.98 : Backs @ 9.0 & 51.0

6th:  +0.4312 (+0.7325) Lay @ 3.4 : Backs @ 6.8 & 13.5

7th:  +0.196   (+0.9285) Lays @ 4.0 & 3.35

8th:  +0.098   (+1.0265) Lay @2.1 : Back @ 8.4

9th:  +0.4606 (+1.4871) Lay @ 3.7 : Back @ 4.2

10th: +0.294 (+1.7811) Lay @ 2.04

11th: – 0.364  (+1.4171) Lay @ 2.04

12th: +0.196  (+1.6131) Lay @ 2.0 : Back @ 4.0

13th:  -0.3       (+1.3131) Lay @ 2.2

14th:  +0.147 (+1.4601)  Lay @ 2.24

15th:  +2.5284 (+3.9885) Lay @ 1.86 : Backs @ 6.6 & 25.0

16th:  NON RUNNER

17th:  -0.515   (+3.4735) Lay @ 2.86 : Back @ 13.5

18th:  +0.0735 (+3.547) Lay @ 3.8 : Back @ 6.0

19th:   -0.295   (+3.252) Lay @ 2.18

20th:   +0.343  (+3.595) Lay @ 1.3

21st:   – 0.329  (+3.266) Lay @ 2.86 : Back @ 4.5

22nd:  – 0.174  (+3.092) Lay @ 2.16

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BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +49.7282points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 30.9948 points (+10.9948 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 48.5039 points (+40.5039 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.3785 points (-0.6215 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz

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