BOZmail – 23rd MAY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

THURSDAY MAY 23rd 2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stood at 36.0395 points after month 4

Stands at 40.8925 points after month 5

LESS IS MORE: THURSDAY PLAY

7-05 SANDOWN

He’s a talking horse and much shorter than I would have liked and I was wrong yesterday about Jaboticaba who clouted the last again and was layable (but I couldn’t have picked the conqueror) but there is only one way for me on Thursday.

I won’t have Dee Ex Bee beaten. He looks a successor to Double Trigger if ever you saw one. Second in the Derby and unlucky in running in the St Leger but at his distance now and with times to outshine this lot. They are a good bunch mind and Mekong is very interesting as a stepping up Frankel. Dismissed on those grounds but Sir Michael doesn’t often get such things wrong. Johnston’s other two also have a squeak and Magic Circle is proven. Sometimes though, you just have a winner in your head. Dee Ex Bee is that. Be a surprise defeat. Not quite weapons grade enough to switch the staggered acca back to forecasting winners but good enough for LIM. With no lay way into the race, I go back only. Keep your eye on the price though. I’d say 5/4 is as short as it should go so it may come back out again tomorrow. Work to be done!

Recommendation:

0.5pt BACK on DEE EX BEE @ 5/4 or best you can get.

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This month plays so far:

1st:   -0.455 (-0.455) LAY @ 2.82

2nd:  -0.3    (-0.755) LAY @ 1.6

3rd:   -0.628 (-1.383) LAY @ 2.76 : BACK @ 34.0

4th:   -0.8    (-2.183) LAY @ 3.4 : BACK @ 7.0

5th:   +0.095 (-2.088) LAY @ 1.95 : BACK @ 9.0

6th:   -0.3    (-2.388) LAY @ 2.2

7th:   +0.095 (-2.293) LAY @ 1.94 : BACK @ 5.1

8th:   +0.19  (-2.103) BACK @ 1.95

9th:   -0.825  (-2.928) LAY @ 3.25 : BACK @ 8.4

10th: NO PLAY DAY

11th:  +0.195 (-2.733) LAY @ 2.92

12th:  -0.24  (-2.973) LAY @ 1.6

13th:  +0.52 (-2.453) BACK @ 6.2

14th:   -0.25 (-2.703) LAYS @ 3.5 & 3.9 : BACK @ 4.5

15th:   +0.196(-2.507) LAY @ 4.0

16th:   +0.996 (-1.511) Lay @ 2.62 : BACK @ 9.0

17th:   +0.196 (-1.315) Lay @ 5.00

18th:   -0.46 (-1.775) Lay @ 2.24 : BACK @ 11.0

19th:   +2.19 (+0.415) Lay @ 1.56 : BACK @ 17.0  

20th:   +0.145 (+0.56)   Lay @ 3.5 : BACK @ 6.0  

21st:   -0.332 (+0.228) Lay @ 2.66

22nd:  +0.294 (+0.522) Lay @ 2.4          

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 105/153 = 68.62% :   BACKS: 26/98 = 26.53%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Get out the Gate

Shoal Bay

Commodore Barry

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Moonlight Spirit – Entered for the King Edward,Ascot (June 21)

Eightsome Reel

Dee Ex Bee – Entered for Sandown (May 23) & Ascot Gold Cup (June 20)

Sir Dragonet- Entered for King Edward (June 21) & Eclipse (July 6)

Raise You

King of Comedy runs at Sandown Thursday night but is already off my list for the form having been let down by Land of Legends and Edaraat. Hope I’ve got that right!

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 12.3429 points.

Staggered acca number 10: (LEG 5)

Will shout when the next leg emerges.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz

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