BOZmail – 23rd MARCH

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

SATURDAY MARCH 23rd 2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stands at 27.28 points after month 3

LESS IS MORE: SATURDAY PLAY

1-50 KELSO

Big day for mares and I’m pretty keen to take on Kupatana here who has the class but has fallen in three of last four and made blunders in its other three chases so hardly my idea of an 11/8 fav. Not guaranteed to like this step up in distance much either and is held on a direct line through Little Miss Poet by Kalahari Queen who should have  won his race against Dalila Du Seuil but swerved it away over the last fence. Then made amends NTO against Little Miss Poet – herself a classy animal. Fav Kupatana looks good on paper to have finished behind Knocknanuss but that result flatters her. Well behind and gifted 2nd with a late fall and Cobden deserts her to go elsewhere. A strong lay advice.

Not sure how strong the back advice is but the value is too great to ignore. Tokaramore is 40/1 early. Take at least half your stake at that in the price watch. Might drift further. Might not. Is a chase debutante but has breeding to suggest will be a much better chaser than hurdler and has good bumper form and is also on that form line with Little Miss Poet in an early career race that I followed all season that year that threw up loads of winners including Ms Parfois,Pearl Royale,Brillare Momento,Oscar Rose, My Khaleesi and Irish Roe.

Top form. Take both this play prices earlyish I’d say remembering to keep within parameters. (you had to be on really early to make yesterday’s lay. I ended up taking my 2.5 in running -confident as I was that he wouldn’t last the distance. I thought Southfield Vic was very unlucky not to land our back).

Recommendation:

0.4pt LAY on KUPATANA (around 2.4: no greater than 3.0)

0.1pt BACK on TOKARAMORE (around 41.0 or better)

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This month plays so far:

1st: + 0.19   (+0.19)

2nd: + 0.24  (+0.43)

3rd: + 0.2     (+0.63)

4th:  – 0.32   (+0.31) LAY @ 2.1

5th:  +0.19  (+0.5)  LAY @ 3.75

6th:  +1.30  (+1.80) LAY @ 2.99: BACK @ 6.4

7th:   -0.195 (+1.605) LAY @ 1.78

8th:   -0.3125 (+1.2925) LAY @1.65

9th:   +0.19 (+1.4825) LAY @4.2

10th: +0.143 (+1.6255) LAY @ 1.6: BACK @ 8.0

11th:  -0.28  (+1.3455) LAY @ 1.72: BACK @ 11.0

12th:  -0.8   (+0.5455) LAY @ 3.0: BACK @ 65.0

13th:  +5.19 (+5.7355) LAY @ 1.9: BACK @ 51.0

14th:  +0.19 (+5.9255) LAYS @ 3.2 & 4.8

15th:   -0.22 (+5.7055) LAY @1.88

16th:   +0.09 (+5.7955) LAY @ 3.3 : BACK @ 34.0

17th:   +0.994 (+6.7895)LAY @ 2.28 : BACKS @ 2.76 & 8.0

18th:   +1.089 (+7.8785)LAY @ 2.16 : BACK @ 3.75

19th:   +0.24 (+8.1185) LAY @ 3.5

20th:   +0.09 (+8.2085) LAY @ 3.2 : BACK @ 8.0

21st:    +0.24 (+8.4485) LAY @ 1.82

22nd:   +0.14 (+8.5885) LAY @ 2.5 (in running): BACK @ 5.8

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 70/98 = 71.42% :   BACKS: 16/63 = 25.39%

HORSES OF INTEREST TO TRADE NEXT TIME OUT:

Uno Valoroso

Southfield Vic

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.5 points.

Staggered acca number 7: (LEG 1)

Will shout as soon as the next good thing comes along.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

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