BOZmail – 23rd MARCH

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

MONDAY MARCH 23rd  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently standing at 22.8778 points (temporarily suspended)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently standing at 10.4606 points

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently standing at 4.90 points

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BOZmail 2020 cycle current overall profit = +5.2384 points

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LESS IS MORE: (temporarily suspended)

LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 23/36 = 63.88%  Backs: 9/26 = 34.61%

US RACING – MONDAY play in Crisis Corner

8-15 WILL ROGERS DOWNS 

It was a bit of a squelchy lay on Flashy Patch and the dilemma of whether you took that or desisted was good practice I’d say but the more I looked the more it seemed certain he was held by Scarlet Bow who got a good ride from Centeno and continued the conclusion that I might be better sticking to the Irish racing during this spell! Not giving up just yet but that is a possibility going forward. Tipping in US racing is very frustrating but I’ll go again here at Will Rogers Monday night. Stephen’s Answer is very short and will be many people’s idea of a banker but Memory Bank can be competitive with him and Notorious Nick likewise has some smart 3yo form and a new barn to recommend him. Still keeping the stakes right down until I find my stride and meantime, I have started the dog betting system expose which I’ll publish in two parts over the next couple of days. See below.

Recommendations: 

£3 LAY on STEPHEN’S ANSWER

The Boz’s March US & Irish Racing LIM results:  (£100 bank)

18th:  -£4-10 (-£4-10) Lay @ 1.7 : Back @ 21.0

19th:   NO BET

20th:  +£2-94 (-£1-16) Lay @ 3.0

21st:   NO BET

22nd:  -£1-75 (-£2-91) Lays @ 2.25 & 10.5

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March (truncated): + 1.5282 points

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93  tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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The thing about dog racing is………….

(part one)

Six runners a race. Around a hundred BAGS races a day – even during a pandemic when social distancing isn’t exactly being practised by dog handlers when loading the boxes – you’d have thought it was an open invitation to LIM disciples to achieve in one day what the current BOZ led horse racing one race a day version takes 100 days to achieve. And if race reading BAGS races was as easy as race reading UK horse racing, it would be. UK horse race reading easy? I’ve had a few of you recently telling me that 50 years of watching UK horse racing hasn’t made race reading any easier for you. That would only be that you ain’t read your Braddock and then done 20 odd years practice like what I have. Fastest horse does win the race in general. There are other factors of course but in US racing – on similar same way round tracks – and UK dog racing with six runners every race – it had ought to be easier than UK horse racing. I hit on that about five years ago but five years down the line, attempts to emulate LIM scores in US horse and UK dog racing trials have largely ended in failure. Bozmailers who remember the January 2018 dog racing trials will testify.

A shambles one member called them. From a tipping point of view they were.

The reason being that both US horse races and UK dog races aren’t as easy to race read as they ought to be. I’m still working on why that is in US racing (lack of back data and back knowledge is my main theory there at the moment) but that doesn’t hold in UK dog racing. I’ve been into UK dog racing even longer than I’ve been into the horses. Grew up on horse racecourses courtesy of my Dad who was a bookie with no interest in dogs meaning I was grounded in horses during my formative years but I wasn’t that fussed about betting in those days. The click for that was 1981 when I went with some student pals to Hanley dog track in Stoke-on-Trent for a night on the tiles. I picked a 25/1 winner in a six dog race purely on the fact it boasted the fastest recorded time and have never lost my basic love of watching and betting the sport ever since.

But have I ever made any money at it? Short term many times. Three and six month spells have been common but with dog racing I will always come to that losing streak that I have largely eradicated in UK horse racing thanks to LIM. Why one and not the other has been driving me bonkers these past five years. The 2018 trial was a concerted effort to prove the LIM model worked in dog racing too and I poured a huge amount of time and effort into tipping one race every day. As I say, shambles. Loss not profit. Quickly abandoned whilst loss was small and no time to do the proper post mortem because I went straight back into making up for things by winning with LIM on the horses for those who had followed the dogs with me. One BOZmailer made me promise never to go down the dogs route again!

I stopped tipping them. Never stopped betting them and past two years? Well I haven’t been losing but I can’t say I’ve been winning either. Several excellent spells dogged by the destructive losing streak as ever. 

But I had an epiphany about three months ago and have been tentatively following ever since and then ran the 100 race a day trial Saturday 21st March 2020 courtesy of there being next to no horse racing to watch. The results were very good. And I’ve made it into a system now that looks set to work. Not a tipping system though. A betting system.  Reasons for that are similar to what makes US racing hard to tip in and for those you new to LIM, what also takes a while to make LIM work excellently in UK horse racing.

The epiphany was that its not about race reading in UK dog racing. It is about market reading.I’d always assumed it was a bit of both as it is in UK LIM horse racing but I’ve finally accepted that you can pack attempts to race read up completely with the vast majority of BAGS greyhound racing in the UK. You are wasting your time. The fastest greyhound does win the race but unlike horse racing there is no pilot to ensure the clear passage and to guide the animal to sit in its best place throughout the race to ensure it gets its clear run at the right moment. Always known that and there are some dogs that develop, what they call in dog racing, ‘track craft’ i.e. the ability to do that sort of stuff without a pilot on board. Those would be the intelligent dogs and they all end up in the better quality dog races. The open races as called. The betting system I’ve developed doesn’t play in those dog races which take place mostly of an evening.

We play in the graded races in mornings and afternoons with the also rans because that is where the market favours us. Especially the exchange market. Betfair prices on dogs can be astronomically inflated. Let me run Sunday’s key race past you. It was the 11-46 at Doncaster where the betting market formed as per usual – in the twenty minutes before the race bearing little or no relation to the tissue (another reason why my 2018 tipping trial was a shambles):

Trap 1 :  19.0

Trap 2 :  21.0

Trap 3 :  13.0

Trap 4 :    2.4

Trap 5 :    4.2

Trap 6 :    5.8

I didn’t bother with a race read until afterwards. I only did it then because I was planning writing this and wanted to see if I would have given the winner any chance.

I wouldn’t have done.  It had won 5 of its starts at a 10% strike rate but times made it clear it was outclassed by the 4 and the 5 dog. The market was formed thus. 

So how did the Boz play? You can probably guess. 

(I’ll leave you dangling with your guess there and publish part two tomorrow)

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