BOZmail – 23rd JUNE

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

SUNDAY JUNE 23rd  2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stood at 36.0395 points after month 4

Stood at 40.8925 points after month 5

Stands at 43.0503 points after month 6

LESS IS MORE: SUNDAY PLAY

2-45 HEXHAM

You have your way. I have my way. As for the right way, the correct way and the only way. It does not exist.

Clever fella Nietzsche although some of his wisdoms do seem obvious now. Such is the passage of time and the never ending surge forward into knowledge. A journey without end. Was that Nietzsche? No, that was The Boz still getting over the way Ostapenko imploded on centre court Friday! When making investments, stick to scheckels for there is nothing to be gained from investing your heart! That’s also the Boz with a new betting wisdom! Don’t think Nietzsche would have approved of that!

But will he win again on Sunday in a re-run of the Perth race which got us off to a better month of betting in June? Not getting his 6lb chase debut weight allowance this time so Caius Marcius fans may well be investing their heart in him again. He does like Hexham but apart from that I am not over enamoured with Nicky Richards’ fav.

Stable have dropped out of form and that which encouraged me to believe that Nietzsche would beat him last time – i.e. their colateral hurdle form from Cheltenham – encourages me again. I just think Nietzsche is the better horse. Ellison stable also still in ok form so I think he’ll beat CM again. That said, there are two others receiving the weight this time and neither can be totally ruled out. Hexham is not a great place to introduce chasers so Henry Daly’s Innocent Touch is the lay for me and I prefer Carntop of the two. He could well improve for his debut at Cartmel where he got an educational ride from the champ. He’s the value in the race. Nietzsche the place where my heart goes!

Managed 5/6  with the daily tennis naps and 6/6 profits so busy organising the Eastbourne draw for next week and Wimbledon for the week after that. Meantime a final in Birmingham and a free bet start to the next staggered acca. See below! LIM is returning to the horses for the day….

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on INNOCENT TOUCH (around 3.5: no greater than 4.2)

0.1pt BACK on NIETZSCHE

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This month plays so far:

8th:      -0.1 (-0.1) Back @ 4.8

9th:   +1.691(+1.591) Lay @ 2.82 : Back @ 6.0

10th: +0.095(+1.686) Lay @ 3.0 : Back @ 3.1

11th:  NON-RUNNER NO PLAY

12th:  +0.34 (+2.026) Half Lay @ 4.4 : Back @ 26.0

             — Whole race played as trade–

13th:   +0.3 (+2.326) Back @ 2.2

14th:   -0.286 (+2.04) Lay @2.24 : Back @11.0

15th:   +0.049(+2.089) Lays @ 3.4 & 4.5 : Back @11.0

16th:    -0.09 (+1.999) Lay @ 1.09

17th:   +0.045(+2.044) Lay @ 2.9 : Backs @ 7.5 & 8.0

18th:    -0.415 (+1.629) Lay @ 2.06 : Back @ 5.3

19th:    +0.49 (+2.119) Lay @ 1.36

20th:    +0.294(+2.413) Lay @ 1.33

21st:   +0.3757(+2.7887) Back @ 2.12 :

           — Whole match played as a two horse back trade —

22nd:   +0.184 (+2.9727) Back @ 1.94

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 113/169 = 66.86% :   BACKS: 30/110 = 27.27%

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS POT TO PLAY WITH AT WIMBLEDON:

Australian Open = +0.283

French Open      = +2.74

Nottingham P/L = Break even

Edgbaston P/L   = +5.4083

Current Total      = +8.4313 points

EDGBASTON REPORT:

My one remaining for the outrights is as follows:

Goerges – 22/1 : Hedged for 0.1pt @ 3/1 = 1.9points possible win. No loss.

I watched the semi-finals closely in view of that back form of Goerges beating Barty here last year. The Australian has improved of course. Her varied game allows a Plan B when Plan A isn’t firing.She covers court well and thinks as she plays and both serve and forehand can be devastating on song. Forehand has been going flat here though on occasion. And for me, she is still vulnerable to the player who hits through her as she always has been. Only players she has faced on that score in recent winning run are Anisimova and Venus. Both got leads but failed to hold them – one through inexperience, the other through advanced years. I think Goerges can at least take a lead if she comes out of the blocks (and they are playing doubles together so Goerges will know where she might be able to get Barty on the backfoot) so you could easily trade on your potential 1.9 points profit if, like me, you have traded stake out (at 3/1) following the semi win.

What I will be doing now however is using the 1.9 points potential win as first leg of staggered acca number 11. Pretty keen on it and as it is a free bet now, we risk nothing from the still intact staggered acca bank. If it wins, you can decide whether to hang on to winnings or play the 1.9 points as stake on leg 2 in the true tradition of a staggered acca. Or you can simply suspend and bank the winnings. Will be your call.

Trader or gambler? The call is yours! I am both. And I do believe in the staggered acca as a mechanism. Just haven’t got it working yet this year. Not losing either.

If Goerges loses her final, we lose nothing and have had an excellent naps run at Edgbaston to steady the slightly rocky BOZmail horses ship of late.

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Get out the Gate

Commodore Barry

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel

Dee Ex Bee

Sir Dragonet- Entered for Irish Derby (June 29)

Raise You

Charl Brune

Ocean Paradise

Maydanny

Roseman

Pour Me A Drink

Gold Stick

Light Up Our Stars

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10 points.

Staggered acca number 11: (LEG 1)

FREE BET on JULIA GOERGES to win the Edgbaston tennis singles final. Potential gain of 1.9 points.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz

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