BOZmail – 23rd JUNE

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

TUESDAY JUNE 23rd  2020 

Bit of a treat for you to tax the grey matter on Tuesday instead of twiddling the thumbs. For my Father’s Day treat, my eldest compiled a Racing anagrams quiz.Where all answers are scrambled letter versions of famous racing connection names. Some really good ones I thought and I’ve added a couple of my own today. Twelve for you to solve. First person to send in twelve correct answers wins the prize which will be free entry to a paddock watch later in the year when they finally allow that part of the 2020 BOZmail plan to commence!

Can you even remember that part of the plan? Seems like centuries ago. There is actually going to be a US Open tennis to bet on too in September. Second half of the 2020 cycle from perhaps mid July through to end of Jan 2021 now shows great promise!

Anagram quiz reproduced below.

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 18.8457 points (-1.1543 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 12.778 points (+4.876 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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BOZmail 2020 cycle PART ONE(1/2 – 31/5) overall profit = +4.2876 points

                                      PART TWO(1/6 – 31/1 )  overall profit = +3.2527 points

PART ONE LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 25/41 = 60.97%  Backs: 9/29 = 31.03%

PART TWO LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 5//11 = 45.45%  Backs : 1/6 = 16.67%

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LESS IS MORE: 

5-25 KEMPTON

Monday’s Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on BREAKFAST CLUB 

Laid @ 2.12 : Hedged before the off – 0.1pt @ 2.4 & 0.07pt @3.15 : P/L =  +0.0784 

An imperfect play for me but the more I looked, the more I liked the lay of Breakfast Club in regard to how the market wasn’t smashing in or ever going odds on. Having got my 2.12 lay, I played cautious and patient on my hedge and decided to take just a 0.1pt when the 2.4 came up Sunday night. The weight differential given to Diligent Lady to turn the form started looking attractive especially with the greenness Breakfast Club had shown. Perhaps not going to be easy to get away fast under that weight. I decided to hang on to my second hedge to go in play with it but when the money came for Dark Kris (who I didn’t especially fancy), I became convinced he was insider winner and waited for best on Breakfast Club before the off and greened as above. Talked myself out of backing Diligent Lady just because of the money for Dark Kris.

So now we’ve seen it, we’d have done far better with traditional LIM and/or the miniscule hedge in running on offer pretty much throughout after he did indeed struggle to keep with pace. And thus must deal with the common trader feeling of undercooking profits on the play when the bet goes on to win. Get used to that. If I start guessing right again (which is what it was. Still a big amount of guesswork in the play even with hindsight. No way to be sure Diligent Lady was going to show that much improvement.) it will happen a few times if we stick to LIM trading. Which I recommend for now. But I know some of you are well past doing exactly as I say and perfectly capable of making your own judgements having been pointed in the direction and having got able to read the markets either on your own or with Bet Angel’s help. Several have already let me know of better scores than I got today. Good on yer. You’ll wipe the June deficit before I do! Stay alert though as Boris suggests!

No changing the format on Tuesday as the only qualifier of the day is this rather classy affair at Kempton. Running Back’s opening salvo has been franked by Qaader in the Coventry but race read such as it is puts Zaisan up level and the improvement likely in Haseef (who missed start on debut) and the class breeding and purchase price of Stoute’s Never Say When give both of them a shout. Market should be watched for both of them but not necessarily followed as with Dark Kris today. Just keep value in mind if playing the backs.

I’ll stick to trading on laying the fav. Running Back is 5/4 rather than expected odds on in first tissue but I’ll be looking for shorter again tonight as with yesterdays. Then playing segment stakes for the hedge being patient for a drift price or an in play if the market has kept him odds against. Does look quite a tasty little race. But trade for the profit either way again is the call. I’ll shout if and when I think we are in a race we can go back to traditional LIM whilst this clawback is achieved. All about discipline and consistency in still extremely trappy racing until the form settles and race reads can be approached more confidently. Will be easy to go back a step if we take eye off ball.

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on RUNNING BACK ( around 2.3 and less if possible to be hedged when preferential odds appear at your discretion before the off or in running. Market watch -and paddock watch if you can get one – will assist here. Run the fitness rule over Never Say When if you get chance) 

 LIM Scores in June:

5th:  -0.355 (-0.355) Lay @ 2.02 : Back @ 9.4

6th-8th: NO BETS

9th:  +0.048 (-0.307) Lay @ 2.8 : Back @ 14.0

10th: +0.0735 (-0.2335) Lay @ 6.0

11th:  -0.23     (-0.4635) Lay @ 2.5 : Back @ 6.2

12th: +0.098  (-0.3835) Lay @ 1.66

13th: -0.24     (-0.6235) Lays @ 3.2 & 4.4 : Backs @ 5.0 & 7.0

14th: -0.216  (-0.8395) Lay @ 2.44

15th: -0.408  (-1.2475) Lay @ 2.54 : Backs @ 4.4 & 9.4

16th: NO BET

17th: NO BET

18th: NO BET

19th: -0.09  (-1.3375) Lay @ 1.45

20th: NO BET

21st: +0.1048 (-1.2327) Lays @ 1.33 & 14.0 :Backs @1.6 & 28.0

22nd: +0.0784 (-1.1543) Lay @ 2.12 : Backs @ 2.4 & 3.15

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Frankly Darling – Entered for The Oaks (July 4)

Muker – Entered for York (Aug 20)

Significantly – Entered for York (Aug 20) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

Malotru

English King – Entered for The Derby (July 4)

Ransom

Virgin Snow

Collinsbay – Entered for Doncaster (Sep 10)

Uncle Jumbo – Entered for Newbury(July 18)&York(Aug 20)&Doncaster (Sep 10)

On My Way

Battleground – Entered for Doncaster (Sep 10)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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BOZmail FATHER’S DAY RACING ANAGRAM QUIZ;

Unscramble the twelve answers to reveal famous names from the Racing World:

Owners,Jockeys,Horses,Races,Presenters & Pundits:

1/ TOGGLE TIPSTER

2/ MR RUDE

3/ MR CHICK ICON JR

4/ BALANCED GIRL

5/ HAZEL BEEN QUIET

6/ ATONAL DARNING

7/ CHORDS RETIED

8/ COPY CAM

9/ FATED TRIKE IRON

10/ FIND CARSICK

11/ CUTIES BIAS

12/ AIRLINE SCOWL

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