BOZmail – 23rd JULY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

TUESDAY JULY 23rd  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 48.248 points after month 7 (+28.248 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +8.3313 points

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LESS IS MORE: TUESDAY PLAY

6-10 SOUTHWELL

Back on the bike with a bang at Cartmel where I was sent to paddock watch Black Anthem but also took in the three favs I mentioned on here. Got them all beat! And when he came round the final bend, I thought Red Giant was going to win as well despite cooling on him a little this morning when I saw how much rain had fallen. Either the fences they missed out as surrounded by waterlogged ground suited him which was why he ran so well on ground he wouldn’t like or cost him the race because more jumps would have given him chance to assert his chasing class!

Not sure. Just had that live in the moment feeling that he was coming to win his race.  To be fair, Dr Robin responded well on the flat to a good ride from Bowen and as his dad was there, that proved a tip just as Dr Newland’s not being there showed us that Black Anthem was a vulnerable odds on chance. Not just fitness that you pick up on in paddock watch. The LIM picked fav showed a different sort of lack of well being and was pulled up on the course obviously not wanting to race. Black Anthem had mainly looked take onable to me because of all the overnight rain. So it proved. Newland’s not being there was just an added negative that encouraged the plunge to take him on.

So with confidence restored, I have had a right good look at this Southwell Novices Chase which is one of those where you could lay all three runners. All three are short enough! By which I mean, which of the three shall we take on? It’s actually a very good race and I initially came in wanting to get Kings Ryde beaten. Henderson has had four winners from his last five runners at Market Rasen Saturday and couldn’t have had five from five because two were in the same race! Kings Ryde did however run a seemingly great race on chase debut to run Fidux close despite jumping markedly left throughout. I wanted to take him on however because No Hasselhoff was a close 1 and 3/4 lengths third and he showed the monkey he is at Cartmel today. So I initially thought the Stratford form was rubbish especially as Fidux was giving 6lbs. Le Musee gives 6lb this time for his debut chase win which was achieved over shorter – but in a good time – and the bottom line is that I have to choose between these two (or lay both??) because I’m very keen on Ready and Able’s hurdle form – terrific times. Looks like a natural for chasing and a rare runner in that sphere for the Magnier’s – who, as you will know, don’t mess about. My pick and value of the race as outsider of three. He also gets the weight allowance from La Musee and wins if he takes to jumping first time out. Kings Ryde didn’t particluarly and yet still ran a cracker and maybe the being so little in front of No Hasselhof is just because NH is also one not yet in the groove with or in love with jumping fences. 

The reason I’ve chosen Kings Ryde as LIM cover ultimately is because there is a change of jockey for this time out. Nico comes in to straighten out those markedly left jumps and knowing the Henderson yard, he’ll have been working tirelessly on the schooling ground since the Stratford race and is likely to have succeeded. There is no better horseman than De Boinville for that sort of thing.

Take out the lengths given away LTO by jumping left and Kings Ryde would have beaten Fidux by ten lengths and can perhaps do that to Le Musee given the six pounds he receives and the improvement he can be expected to find on what was anyway a promising run. He would also have trounced No Hasselhof by further which was my only reason really for opposing him. Now I switch to laying Le Musee because of the price, the weight he gives away and the stable jockey combo which are simply not Henderson/De Boinville running out of their skins at the moment.

I could be wrong on this but Noonan isn’t top drawer and Hawke only has his string at 44% in running to form. His two at Cartmel today ran flat. I have chosen between the front two and that’s my rationale. You wanna play safer, you could lay both. Like I say, if he jumps like he promises he might, I think Ready and Able will win. I’m taking that chance.

Recommendation:

0.35pt LAY on Le MUSEE (around 2.5: no greater than 2.8)

0.1pt BACK on READY AND ABLE

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This month plays so far:

1st:  +1.005 (+1.005) Lay @ 1.4 : Back @ 8.6

2nd: -0.636 (+0.369)  Lay @ 2.62 : Back @ 4.5

3rd:  +0.145(+0.514)  Lay @ 2.6 : Back @ 12.0

4th:   +0.145(+0.659) Lay @ 2.96 : Back @11.0

5th:    -0.4 (+0.259) Lay @ 3.0

6th:    +0.88 (+1.139) Lay @ 1.85 : Back @ 4.2

7th:   +0.643(+1.782) Lay @ 2.7 : Back @ 3.0

8th:   +0.932(+2.714) Lay @ 1.33 : Back @ 6.4

9th:   – 0.645(+2.069) Lay @ 2.98 : Back @ 7.0

10th: +0.196(+2.265) Lay @ 1.93 : Back @6.0

11th:   -0.33 (+1.935) Lay @ 1.72 : Back @ 7.0

12th:  +0.675(+2.61) Back @ 3.25

13th:  +0.735(+3.345) Lay @ 1.54

14th:   +0.49 (+3.835) Lay @ 1.84

15th:  +0.245 (+4.08)  Lay @ 2.72

16th:   +1.225(+5.305)Lay @ 2.32 : Back @ 10.0

17th:   +0.336(+5.641)Lay @ 4.0 : Back @ 2.4

18th:    +0.2 (+5.841) Backs @ 4.0 &4.5 : LAY unmatched

19th:  NON RUNNER

20th:    +0.54 (+6.381)Lay @ 3.4 : Back @ 3.0 

21st:     -0.275(+6.106)Lay @ 2.1

22nd:   +0.194(+6.30) Lay @ 2.32 : Back @ 9.0

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 131/194 = 67.52% :   BACKS: 40/131 = 30.53%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Commodore Barry

Kaizer 

HORSE TO FOLLOW/TRADE on TUESDAY

4-30 MUSSELBURGH – KAIZER @ 10/1

Bit of a surprise to see Kaizer back on the flat and I have had another tip for this race which looks pretty hard to fathom so I’ll only be playing small. He’s well treated however if he runs with the same verve he showed over hurdles where his staying on to win was a surprise I think for everyone. Watch and see if he does it again!

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel 

Dee Ex Bee – Entered for Goodwood Cup (July 30)

Sir Dragonet – Entered for the QIPCO (September 14)&Irish St Leger (Sep 15) 

Raise You

Charl Brune

Ocean Paradise 

Maydanny

Roseman – Entered in the Juddmonte (Aug 21)

Pour Me A Drink 

Gold Stick 

Light Up Our Stars 

Waldpfad – Entered in the Haydock Sprint Cup (Sep 7)

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10.00 points.

Staggered acca number 15: (LEG 1)

Will shout if or when another starter emerges.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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