BOZmail 23rd JULY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 


THURSDAY JULY 23rd  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 20.7188 points (+0.7188 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 14.2472 points (+6.2472 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.385 points (-0.615 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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BOZmail 2020 cycle PART ONE(1/2 – 31/5) overall profit  = +4.2876 points

                                      PART TWO(1/6 – 31/1 )  overall profit = +5.882 points

                                          BOZmail 2020 overall score = +10.1696 points

PART ONE LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 25/41 = 60.97%  Backs: 9/29 = 31.03%

PART TWO LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 27/35 = 77.14%  Backs : 2/13 = 15.38%

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LESS IS MORE: 

Tuesday’s Recommended:

0.25pt LAY on QUEMONDA (around 3.0 maybe but could be much shorter. Get in early and take the best price you can)

0.075pt BACK on JANUS (around 5.5)

Trade play: Laid @ 2.6 (averaged) : Hedged 0.2pt @ 3.25 : P/L = +0.049pts

                      Back @ 4.6 : Hedged 0.1pt @ 3.7 : P/L =  + 0.0245pts

Total Trade P/L = +  0.0735pts       (+0.3187pts)

 Non Trade Play P/L = +0.1715pts (+0.3255pts)

3-2 after a decisive victory for the non traders with the BOZ back in kilter with his lay of the day! How lucky was I? Pretty lucky I would say. Quemonda was seriously flagged by the market late and only got marginally touched. I was wrong about Janus reversing form (dunno how much the revelation about George Rooke’s deception re his claim contributed to that) and was pretty much saved by the shortlist. 

Thanks to my seeders – one of whom has decided to stay trade all LIMs – for the gen on the trade score which I’ve been able to include in my comparative stat. And it is noticeable how the trade score is only just down over five days. Let’s see where it goes from here however as the BOZ does have his laying Mojo back and if I can get that week long win streak happening, the gap should widen. In theory, I keep the trading for when my confidence isn’t high but truth is the shortlist overall again at Bath suggests things are still skewed on the flat and I would agree with that. We ain’t out of the woods yet. Encouraging LIM result however even if I was lucky!

2-10 UTTOXETER

Just hit my £1k profit from the year target after much graft. Well behind target but allowing for the ten week gap, only a few weeks adrift. I also reconise that 65% of it has also been trade obtained so not everyone going to be anywhere near it but if you are either side of that 1k figure well done. It has indeed been hard won!

So pondered long over whether to go trade or non trade on this LIM play as I like to protect profit milestones for a day or two usually and this race is a good LIM candidate but laced once more with guesswork courtesy of the early season/lockdown fitness factors.

Only one with a recent run is Nicholls’ Darling Maltaix and it was a decent run timewise and given the improvement most of Nicholls’ string achieve after a run, it puts him in there. Indeed all four have a chance which is why I’ve decided to go the traditional play route albeit to modest stake. Minella Warrior is a fair fav and does look the class on that shown so far. Bailey’s El Presente ran a cracker FTO but Minella Warrior does have question marks on jumping after his LTO saw a string of punishing blunders albeit in a hot Cheltenham race. Darling Maltaix looks more exposed and has negatives of his own in the distance, which he is not proven at, although breeding says it ought to suit. That leaves Young Wolf and Sirobbie jumping fences for the first time in public so I’m hesitant to back either but Jonjo’s boy has looked a chaser in the making and if he jumps fences better than he jumped hurdles, he could be the long term class of the field. Sirobbie also no slouch and the value in this market if he jumps.

So mainly down to price and I have Minella Warrior 2/1 nearing 9/4 in my market so at 6/4 or less he is my stab at keeping the winning lay of the day week going. Modest stakes again though as I say. Not over confident I’ve got this one right (I was much more confident re Quemonda and I only just squeaked in with that!) and I would put no-one off playing safe with a trade play.

Recommendation:

0.1pt LAY on MINELLA WARRIOR (around 2.5 or lower if you can get it)

THE BOZMAIL LOCAL TRACK FACTOR SECTION:

2-40 UTTOXETER – THE STEWARD @ 25/1

3-40 UTTOXETER – MEGA DOUBLE @ 15/2

2 x 0.005pt WIN SINGLES & a 0.01pt Each Way double – Total Spend = 0.03pt

Long term Bozmailers will know that I specialise in the Moffat yard and the Cartmel track and local track factor was a longstanding sector on the BOZmail before a poor year in 2018 saw it temporarily sidelined. I bring it back on for 2020 as one of a couple of attempts to plug the gaps caused by no tennis (as of yet) this year and  all the other frustrations that have led to it taking so long to get to the first £1k on the sheet.

I was planning to start on Sunday with Cartmel’s first meeting of the year following three cancellations for which Jimmy has his traditional shed load of entries including several new names from the yard.

I’m coming in early however following last night at Perth where his first two jump runners of 2020 came first at 18/1 (BSP 24.05) and third at 7/1 (taken at 13/1 on the exchange). I had heard the string was zinging but I don’t have the same quality of contact in the yard I used to have so have to be more wary tipping these days. My eyes are my best friend now. What I do have is a long back knowledge and personal relationships with several of his horses.

Golden Town I will back blind to my dying day after his win at Sedgefield last year at astronomical BSP odds and twas he that did it again yesterday at an enormous price for a seven horse race. That is the feature of following the Moffat yard.He is considered a minnow yard and does have long losing spells or more precisely inactive spells like this past six months has been. They forget he is a decent trainer and has had some serious quality horses (Chief Dan George and Highland Lodge the most recent two) with a real eye for snapping up quality cast offs from the big yards for a song and gradually bringing them back to their former potential. No better example of that than The Steward who won the Cartmel Cup last year at 33/1 after a long and frustrating (for the backer) procession of placed efforts. Like Golden Town, he has had a couple of desperate defeats since that success to get his mark back down.That is Jimmy’s way. No way of knowing if he’ll be primed for tomorrow at Uttoxeter but I’ll be backing at those odds just in case. On paper he has an each way shout whilst Mega Double has a feasible win chance.

I’m going small stakes just to see if I can’t muster ammunition for a right go at the hordes he’s got entered for Sunday and because the string has indeed come back zinging based of the evidence of those two at Perth Tuesday night. Strikes me 2020 might be as good a year as 2019 was in stable Moffat with no sign yet of his latest long term superstar on whom regulars will know I’m very sweet i.e. Lady Bowes.

Bred locally for a tilt at the 2024 Grand National. Let’s hope that hasn’t been a plan scuppered by this year’s hiatus. 

 LIM Scores in July:

1st:  +0.1054   (+0.1054) Lays @ 2.22 & 2.4 : Backs @ 3.1 & 2.56

2nd: -0.126      (-0.0206) Lay @ 1.48 : Backs @ 16.0 & 40.0

3rd:  +0.0232   (+0.0026) Lay @ 1.7 : Back @ 1.96

4th:   +0.1313  (+0.1339) Lay @ 2.76 : Back @ 4.0

5th:   -0.1         (+0.0339) Back @ 3.0

6th:   NO BET

7th:   +0.098   (+0.1319) Lay @ 2.5

8th & 9th: NO BET

10th: +0.1225 (+0.2544) Lay@ 3.05 : Back @ 5.5

11th: +0.0245 (+0.2789) Lay@ 4.0 : Back @ 5.4

12th: +0.098  (+0.3769) Lay@3.75

13th: +0.098  (+0.4749) Lay@3.08 : Back @ 4.13

14th: +0.049  (+0.5239) Lay@3.6 : Back @ 13.5

15th: NO BET

16th: -0.245  (+0.2789) Lay @ 1.98 

17th: + 0.0147 (+0.2936) Lay @ 3.0 : Back @ 3.3

18th:  +0.0294 (+0.323) Lay @ 3.2 : Back @ 4.0

19th:  +0.098  (+0.421) Lay @ 2.8 : Back @ 8.6

20th:  +0.01    (+0.431) Lay @ 2.26 : Back @ 2.8

21st:  +0.0735(+0.5045) Lay @ 2.7 : Back @ 8.0

22nd: +0.1715 (+0.676) Lay @ 2.6 : Back @4.6

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker – Entered for York ( Aug 20)

Significantly – Entered for York (Aug 20) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

Malotru 

English King 

Ransom

Virgin Snow 

Collinsbay – Entered for Ascot (July 25) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

Uncle Jumbo – Entered for York (Aug 20) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

On My Way – Entered for Ascot (July 26)

Battleground – Entered for Doncaster (Sep 10) & Curragh (Aug 22&Sep13)

Waseem Faris 

Little Chance

Samwell (FR)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

TO FOLLOW HORSE ON THE FLAT ON WEDNESDAY:

1-40 BATH – JAGANORY @ 4/1 – 0.25pt BACK – 3rd

Backed @ 7.6 (averaged) : Hedged 0.3pt @ 4.0 (averaged) : P/L = +0.049pts

The money didn’t really come for Jaganory suggesting the stable weren’t that confident of a win again. Drifted in the 5 mins before the off to over 8 so I took my final back stake there but never got my under evens hedge matched. Had hedged my pre race at 4.6 and got my in race at 3.0 as he was there and thereabouts at the death and paid as an each way bet. I prefer this way to backing each way but to be fair, there is not much in it. Had he gone on to win, I would have sacrificed some of my remaining 0.75point winning profit as the 1.5 hedge was left on the machine and would have been taken had it been a seriously tight finish. So I basically had it at roughly 70-30 win or lose which I consider a good day’s work even though I only made a fiver. There was the basic worry that this is still post lockdown flat racing which I don’t entirely trust. Couldn’t have picked the winner in a million years despite my penchant for the jockey. The on paper danger to Jaganory came second. So as a tipster, I was on two losers. As a trader,I show a profit. Why I do it this way these days.

Jaganory goes back off the list again for a bit now. That was the chance from the training point of view I’d say. He will win again so I’ll keep tracking but not one to back blindly from here.

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Check My Pulse 

Balagan 

Perle Rose 

Ashutor – Entered for Newton Abbot (July 24)

Sangha River 

Captain Tom Cat 

Beholden – Entered for Newton Abbot (July 24)

Lord Condi

Saint Sam (FR)

Rubytwo

Pisgah Pike

El Presente

Hiconic

For Pleasure

NH HORSE TO TRADE ON THURSDAY:

1-10 UTTOXETER – PERLE ROSE @ 8/1 – 0.1pt BACK

Take the best price you can get and hedge as appropriate when preferential odds are on offer.

I was impressed how Barr’s horse stayed on LTO after losing its place in the melee and this extra distance should bring more improvement. Is bred to stay and has Point background so speed might not be there and like a few we’ve traded here lately, chance might be more place than win so you could plan your trade in either or both markets. I’ll probably stick to the win market as I would expect a good price early which will contract during market watch. I will be aiming to green before the off. Looks in the happy with miniscule profit category though to be fair.

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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