BOZmail – 23rd JANUARY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

 

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

 

WEDNESDAY JANUARY 23nd 2019

 

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 25.5 points after month 1

 

LESS IS MORE: WEDNESDAY PLAY

2-50 HEREFORD

Steadying day with good old Danielle rescuing the tennis and Larry unable to carry his penalty. Four other LIM layable favs that I looked at last night also came good so maybe the worst of the January hoodoo is passing. That said it snowed here last night and most of the morning and if that spreads we’ll get some fun. Disappointed Forth Bridge couldn’t capitalise and he got caught flat footed again, May just be one of those perennial bridesmaid horses. Encouraged though and having a crack at two in a row again now. Seems an age ago that I managed 18 in a row. How quickly the past fades in this game. All that matters is tomorrow.

And that’s a four runner handicap chase at Hereford where I don’t understand the market. Cesar Collonges is the favourite to take on – another with a punitive penalty to shoulder – and is shorter than I expected at 11/8. Take that or thereabouts. The real mystery though is bottom weight Lillington who might just about justify outsider status but I had it tight between the four and marked it 9/2 and the early tissue went 4/1 but bookmakers have come out with 11/1. Take that! Paddy Power the culprits and others going 9 and 8. I don’t expect it to last long.

Huntsman Son the best horse in the race but weight might make him least likely to win but he still rates reasonably favourably up against Cesar Collonges and Venetia’s Enola Gay also well in there.

Looks a classic LIM race to me.

Recommendation:

0.35pt LAY on CESAR COLLONGES

0.1pt BACK on LILLINGTON

 

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 37/47 = 78.72% :   BACKS: 7/28 = 25%

 

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NH TO FOLLOW LIST STARTING BANK = 15 points

Stands at 14.8 points

 

The Bozmail to follow list has a combination of simply the most exciting horses I’ve seen in current race watching and a selection of those I’ve gotten to know over the years who are getting close to the place where they can be expected to win again. The list is ever changing and I have a subs bench of horses waiting to get on all the time. Candidates also disappear with regularity if they underperform or look to have shot their bolt in the win. So a fluid list that you’ll see altering all the time. I’ll log entries on this sheet as they occur and recommend staking advices on the day they are due to run after I’ve had chance to assess the race they are competing in. These selections can be backed to fixed odds or traded either in or before running as is your preference. There is profit whichever way you play over time.

 

From June 2018, The Bozmail switched to recommending trading the majority of these runners, including inplay trading, to back at optimum prices and hedge accordingly when appropriate. Profit figures were increased on previous years because of that so if you feel confident enough to approach like that, by all means. I will certainly be playing that way. I shall however post as fixed odds selections and the service arbiter will settle all results to Betfair SP in line with his fairness to all policy.

 

2019 BOZmail NH JUMPERS TO FOLLOW:

(* indicates early candidates for Cheltenham Festival Glory)

 

RIP Willoughby Court – sad news indeed.

 

Waiting Patiently * – Entered for Leopardstown (Feb 2 & 3)

Rebel Og  

Return Ticket  

Adjourned

Dynamite Dollars  

Itchy Feet *

Frodon *

Ask Paddington

Lady Buttons * – Entered for Huntingdon (Jan 25)

Ribble Valley  

La Bague au Roi *  – Entered for Leopardstown (Feb 3)

Benatar *

Captain Zebo

Magic of Light*  – Entered for Huntingdon (Jan 25)

Unwin VC

Nicolas Chauvin

Vinndication *

Valtor

Ruby Yeats

Lostintranslation*

Cliffs of Dover*

Ebony Gale

Zakharova  

Indian Opera

 

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AUSTRALIAN OPEN TENNIS – Tuesday night at Midnight:

 

1st Quarter: SERENA WILLIAMS @ 6/5

2nd Quarter: MADISON KEYS @ 5/1 (6.6 on the exchanges) – LOST    

3rd Quarter: MARIA SHARAPOVA @ 3/1  saver: AMANDA ANISIMOVA @ 11/2 – LOST

4th Quarter: SLOANE STEPHENS @ 5/2   saver: DANIELLE COLLINS @ 10/1 – WON

4 x 0.25pt singles with a 0.1pt single on each named saver. 4 x 0.05pt trebles on the four main selections and a 0.05pt four timer for a total spend of 1.45 points.

 

Enjoyed that watch and woke up at 5am especially! Looked like Collins’ hyperactive aggression might turn from its destructive positive – as seen against Garcia and Kerber – to the negative of debilitating frustration up against the modest grind of Pavlyuchenkova. It took a while for Collins to settle to her game and she had two or three patches of old fashioned nerves in what was her maiden QF. She came through though. Does have fortitude when the nerves are under control and has the game to hurt Kvitova on the surface. Won’t be allowed back in if she shows nerves there though and on balance I’d say she does remain the outsider. She saved us however and will ever get my undying support for that. I shall long remember that demolition of Kerber as indication of what she can do. Same third set v Pavlyuchenkova once her serve returned into its groove. I’m off to study and think about the semi-finals if, as expected, Serena completes the other half of the save and achieve at least a 50% version of the all American semis I was projecting!

P.S. Those that read my SLAM OF TWO HALVES piece last week and followed the 350/1 or later treble figure outright price on Collins may now consider the trade at a lay of 19.0 although that may well contract further as the other three QFs play out depending mainly on whether or not Serena survives! A 20% trade of current projected profit would be my recommendation.

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.5 points.

Staggered acca number 5:

 

Awaiting the emergence of the next weapons grade selection before setting out again on leg 1.

 

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Good Luck with your bets.

 

BOZ

 

The BOZmail golden rules:

 

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a price. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges)

5/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

 

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

 

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