JANUARY 2021 – 31 day extension to
BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail
Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet (replaced from January 21st onwards by THE BOZNAP)
SATURDAY JANUARY 23rd
EXTENSION DAY 23:
3-35 ASCOT &
A few of you asking what the criteria is for the BOZnap and I forgot there would be some who hadn’t seen it before. Hasn’t been featured on the BOZmail for over three years now. Its place taken by LIM.
It is still my other job however and I have posted a BOZnap now for over twenty years.Every day. That’s over 7000 Naps. Strike rate fairly consistent at around 10% and the criteria very much what you see in BOZmail rule number 1. Look where others do not. Consequently, as you’ve seen these first two days, prices often drift.
That is especially what I look for. And one’s that have a genuine chance to win of course. But a 10% strike rate is only ok for long term profit if they are all over 10/1 shots and they won’t all be that. The reason LIM supplanted it. LIM achieves around 30% strike rate on backs and around 66% on lays. And that does guarantee long term profit.
So the BOZnap is akin to leisure punting and for fun to some extent. I do have purple patches with it though and that’s the aim here.
Both the first two unlucky. Well identified winning chances that drifted in the market and didn’t win because of the way the race went. Brian The Snail caught a real tartare. Beat all those he needed to beat and met the dark horse (who the market knew about). And so The BOZnap doesn’t change my January luck I’m afraid. Makes it worse if anything! Is famous for suffering seconditis and worse really. That Lingfield race Friday was an LIM qualifier that looked all over an oppose the fav race but because of the way things were going, I did a serious sweep and found the back that matched the rule number one criteria for it to be beaten by the LIM cover horse that the market knew about (and I didn’t). A serious bloody improver again showing its best ever form. Almost every loser in this streak has been won by one of them. And it does go that way at times. In late January and September especially. A known BOZfact of many years now. And worth remembering. September 2020 was a slight exception because of the pandemic disruption. But only slight. Definitely going to be missed out in 2021 if the rhythm gets back to norm which it does seem to be doing now.
BOZmail Golden Rule number 6 there for a reason too.Most punters do suffer from Murphys Law but the BOZ is a chronic sufferer. Hence seconditis is on my lifetime CV! Only ever gotten over by hard graft. And onward thus I go to Saturday and another effort!
JANUARY EXTENSION BOZNAP 11 DAY SEQUENCE (all to be backed to 0.025pt stake) RECORD OF RESULTS:
BOZNAP NUMBER 1 – IT JUST TAKES TIME @ best priced 7/1 – 2nd
BOZNAP NUMBER 2 – BRIAN THE SNAIL @ best priced 9/2 – 2nd
BOZNAP NUMBER 3 – 3-35 ASCOT – FIRST FLOW @ best priced 16/1
– 6-40 NEWCASTLE – ATRAFAN @ best priced 9/2
Can’t split these two who both massively meet BOZmail Rule 1 criteria so I’ll split stake (0.0125pt on each) because of prices and the need to try to stop the losing streak! Both are speculative but the BOZ has his antennae quivering for both (as much as I did for the first two as well though so beware! It is still late January!).
I actually fancy five for the Clarence House so wouldn’t normally back in such a race but First Flow is right up there on my list of exciting horses for the future. His first toe dip into the big league as a chaser but his attitude so far has been fabbo and he has grade 2 hurdling victory to his name so the speed and class is there. And he is a right old price. Will never be that again if he wins first time of asking at this level. He might take Politologue on for the lead so that will either make or break him. But a right old horse to holler home if he is as good as he has looked so far. Real warrior. I’d be backing Waiting Patiently in this race if FF wasn’t running. But he’s become the mega of all unlucky horses for me and every other follower. I’ll cheer if he wins at 5/2 but no price for me as a BOZNAP that.
Atrafan will be a drifter because he meets his conquered LTO again on worse terms here. That made my to follow list though as a serious stand out when it occurred.Talk about horse improvement. He looked very much like he could go in again and I like the horse and trainer combo. He would be an LIM lay though so we see if we are following the right approach or not with both of these really. Murphy is poised on his perch! Which way is he gonna go??!!
BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +59.2102points
LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points
Currently stands at : 33.6211 points (+13.6211 points)
LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 134/195 = 68.71% Backs : 38/128 = 29.68%
LIM Monthly Scores:
February: + 1.3496 points
March : + 1.5866 points
UK RACING LOCKDOWN
April : – 0.1733 points
May : – 0.8359 points
UK RACING RESTARTED
June : + 0.0428 points
July : + 0.8046 points
August : +1.9726 points (+4.747 points)
September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)
October : + 2.1487 points (+7.9028 points)
November : +4.468 points (+12.3708 points)
December : +0.8487 points (+13.2195 points)
January LIM Score:
1st: +0.098 (+0.098) Lay @ 2.75
2nd: +0.049 (+0.147) Lay @ 2.5 : Back @ 7.0
3rd: +0.098 (+0.245) Lay @ 2.3
4th: +0.147 (+0.392) Lay @ 2.6
5th: NO BET
6th: +0.098 (+0.49) Lay @ 3.7 (averaged)
7th: RACING ABANDONED
8th: NO BET
9th: +0.588 (+1.078) Lay @ 2.4 : Back @ 11.0
10th: +0.098 (+1.176) Lay @ 2.26 : Back @ 5.0
11th: +0.1176 (+1.2936) Lay @ 2.9
12th: -0.218 (+1.0756) Lay @ 2.4 : Back @ 61.0
13th: -0.131 (+0.9446) Lay @ 1.81 : Back @ 8.0
14th: -0.1 (+0.8446) Back @ 3.1
15th: -0.075 (+0.7696) Lays @ 2.0 & 3.8 : Back @ 18.0
16th: -0.068 (+0.7016) Lay @ 2.06 : Back @ 4.0
17th: NO BET
18th: -0.1 (+0.6016) Back @ 2.8
19th: RACING ABANDONED
20th: -0.15 (+0.4516) Lay @ 4.0
LIM suspended for the rest of January 2021 to be replaced on a daily basis by the BOZnap.
21st: -0.025 (+0.4266) Back @ 8.0
22nd: -0.025 (+0.4016) Back @ 5.5