BOZmail – 23rd FEBRUARY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

 

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

 

SATURDAY FEBRUARY 23rd 2019

 

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stands at 25.83 points after month 2

 

LESS IS MORE: SATURDAY PLAY

1-50 KEMPTON

That was just what the doctor ordered and excellent vindication of all that I bang on about –  the importance of breaking even during the rough patches and playing cautiously and stopping the losing streak from taking any kind of hold ever. Then when the three back winning streak starts (and don’t ask me what causes them, I have long pondered how I can ever gain control over them and bend them to make them happen to my will! Not going to happen it would seem!) it is all profit and moving things back into the arena of gradual accumulation.

I had Peter Thomas of the Racing Post yesterday dissing my semi tongue in cheek promotion of the horse dumping theory in my rationale and that seems to have triggered the return to Boz tipping form! Because of course the Racing Post scoffing means 99% of the betting public will now ignore it leaving us to reap the benefit of better odds as I’d say we did on Indian Opera.Plenty of 8/1 and better around just before the off. Note to self to invent some more ridiculous notions to put out there to heighten the perception that The Boz is a twaddle merchant tipster and thus bend the market further in our favour! Because you and I know that whilst it is also part of my comedy routine, that dumping theory is actually serious and backed up by years of stats. You probably saw Risk A Fine doing his best for us in that department in a recent LIM. During the race! Haven’t seen much of that before but it was followed by a winning spurt and although I haven’t found many horse handlers who can explain the science of my observation they don’t diss it like Thomas just did. Other note to self, start looking hard at the Thomas tips and opposing them as looks to me like he might be one of those employed by the Bookmakers to affect markets. Been propositioned in that way myself in the past and you can rest assured that I slammed the phone down in disgust and am proud of not taking the tainted sheckel. The Boz takes orders from no-one! Not ever. Those who follow and trust me know that we are in this together playing straight win or lose. There’ll be no shenanigans or fake news here.

Except for the occasional allowable misinformation put out to deflect the market. Keep that in mind. Never pass this gen on unless you feel as sure about who you are passing to as I feel about you.

And so, with the Feb LIM in rosy bloom at last, on to a rather spiffing Saturday with a couple of to follow horses to bet and a new staggered acca to initiate and all with bookmakers money! Just how it ought to be!

Good Man Pat did us proud LTO and continues to advertise the form behind the sadly injured Master Dino but does take a marked step up in class here and is thus only a loyal stake to follow bet. The race read says a fair bit to find which is not out of the question as definitely an improver and that LTO win was despite being quite badly hampered at the second last. Definitely one to continue following with interest. It’s a competitive four horse affair however with Castafiore far from out of it on my figures.

Easy to crab that LTO win at Haydock but gets the weight again and is another on a biggish upward curve so I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see her in the winner’s enclosure. It should however on form concern Bags Groove and Secret Investor with the latter poised to reverse form of previous encounter with a 5lb weight turnaround.

Add to that the form of the respective yards and Nicholls’ swinging dominance at the moment plus a very good time in the win at Chepstow at this grade two starts back and I’m in the Secret Investor camp on form. Not a huge play however. This is sitting on some of yesterday’s winnings day being a competitive Saturday! Ever the cautious.Eye always on the long haul.

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on BAGS GROOVE (around 2.9 and no greater than 3.2)

0.1pt BACK on SECRET INVESTOR

0.1pt BACK on GOOD MAN PAT

 

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 52/71 = 73.23% :   BACKS: 11/47 = 23.40%

 

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NH TO FOLLOW LIST STARTING BANK = 15 points

Stands at 14.2875 points

 

The Bozmail to follow list has a combination of simply the most exciting horses I’ve seen in current race watching and a selection of those I’ve gotten to know over the years who are getting close to the place where they can be expected to win again. The list is ever changing and I have a subs bench of horses waiting to get on all the time. Candidates also disappear with regularity if they underperform or look to have shot their bolt in the win. So a fluid list that you’ll see altering all the time. I’ll log entries on this sheet as they occur and recommend staking advices on the day they are due to run after I’ve had chance to assess the race they are competing in. These selections can be backed to fixed odds or traded either in or before running as is your preference. There is profit whichever way you play over time.

 

From June 2018, The Bozmail switched to recommending trading the majority of these runners, including inplay trading, to back at optimum prices and hedge accordingly when appropriate. Profit figures were increased on previous years because of that so if you feel confident enough to approach like that, by all means. I will certainly be playing that way. I shall however post as fixed odds selections and the service arbiter will settle all results to Betfair SP in line with his fairness to all policy.

 

2019 BOZmail NH JUMPERS TO FOLLOW:

(* indicates early candidates for Cheltenham Festival Glory)

Waiting Patiently * – Entered for Ryanair Chase (Mar 14)

Return Ticket  

Adjourned

Itchy Feet * – Entered for Supreme Novices (Mar 12)

Frodon * – Entered for Ryanair (Mar 14) & Gold Cup (Mar 15)

Ask Paddington

Lady Buttons * – Entered for OLBG (Mar 12) & Queen Mother (Mar 13)

Ribble Valley  

La Bague au Roi *  – Entered for RSA (Mar 13) & JLT (Mar 14)

Benatar

Captain Zebo

Magic of Light  – Entered for  Grand National (Apr 6)

Unwin VC – Entered for Wincanton (Feb 27)

Nicolas Chauvin

Vinndication * – Entered for RSA (Mar 13) & JLT (Mar 14)

Valtor – Entered for Albert Bartlett (Mar 15) & Grand National (Apr 6)

Lostintranslation* – Entered in JLT (Mar 14)

Cliffs of Dover

Ebony Gale

Zakharova  

Indian Opera – Entered for OLBG (Mar 12)

Happy Diva

Elegant Escape – Entered for Gold Cup (Mar 15) & Grand National (Apr 6)

Kaiser Black

Le Richebourg* – Entered for the Arkle (Mar 12) & JLT (Mar 14)

Parlour Maid – Entered for Leicester (Feb 26)

Good Man Pat – Entered for the JLT (Mar 14)

All Currencies

Knocknanuss* – Entered in the Arkle (Mar 12)

The Mighty Ash

Pistol Whipped

Cyrname

Rainy Day Dylan

 

TO FOLLOW HORSE TO BET ON SATURDAY:

4-00 FAIRYHOUSE – Magic of Light @ 100/30 or better – 0.35pt WIN

 

The mare’s allowance gives Jessica Harrington’s charge a winning chance in her warm up for the big races ahead. Gets nearly a stone from main rival Alpha Des Obeaux who has the wunderkid Jack Kennedy back in the saddle but is not obviously suited to the longer distance these days whereas Magic of Light proved LTO that she needs it. Still very much on my Grand National shortlist especially if she wins this. Pleasant Company a danger but winding up to a repeat tilt at Aintree very slowly and probably wants that further distance. Outlander the other of concern but has to give a straight stone to Magic of Light so I’m relatively keen on the Harrington mare.

 

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.5 points.

Staggered acca number 6: (LEG 1)

 

3-15 LINGFIELD – WISSAHICKON – at around 1/3  – 0.5pt WIN

 

Was even money earlier in the week before scaring rest away at final dec stage. So probably should have to made it an ante-post play but wanted to check out all of the opposition before declaring it weapons grade. Most of that opposition not here now.Master the World could run him close on a line through Big Country who should run well again but was toyed with by the Gosden horse LTO. Wissahickon has a marvellous cruising turn of foot – enough to get him out of the pocket LTO and still have Dettori pulling up before the line. Dettori’s favourite ride at the moment and a chance to see him still at his imperious best.

 

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Good Luck with your bets.

 

BOZ

 

The BOZmail golden rules:

 

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges)

5/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

 

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

 

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