BOZmail – 23rd FEBRUARY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

SUNDAY FEBRUARY 23rd  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently standing at 21.051 points

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently standing at 9.5541 points

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently standing at 5.07 points

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LESS IS MORE: Sunday play

3-20 FONTWELL

Loads of things to say about Saturday’s play. Like not as bad a winner picker as I used to be perhaps! Like well done BOZmailers who didn’t knacker the price on Goring who was 13/2 when I put him up but plenty of 12.5 on the exchanges before the off. That 5lb pull on Almufti looked influential to me. It was. Jockey mentioned it in the post race interview. Market completely ignored it. The 14 day stable in running form stat also key. Keep that in mind for all form study especially on the all weather where it has extra zing and where I am now finding my feet again after a rusty start having not bothered with it much this winter so far. I can be a pretty good all weather race reader with practice so perhaps I’ll be sticking to it more in 2020 than I originally intended. If the wet weather NH continues especially.

And then there was the price drift on Habub. There has been some comments and criticism from some regarding the putting up of lay prices the night before which I take on board and certainly do not dismiss. The timing of taking prices these days and on this sheet in particular is paramount and likewise my recording of them is equally bound into the fact that I publish the night before – working mainly from the early tissue bookmakers put out and then simply recording what I achieve myself in my own play for your info. Something to compare to for those who don’t have all day to stare at the developing market. And the developing market is the thing these days aslo is what I say. More important than race reading in the general scheme of things now.

The downside of publishing so early is that those tissue can be wildly inaccurate as the Habub one was yesterday. He was a very rare lay NOT MATCHED for the Boz records because I was too late to get on the small amounts under 4.0 he traded at last night and he never came anywhere near that afterwards. Ran accordingly so if you did risk the lay you got away with it ok. As with Len Brennan earlier in the month.

I don’t like lays at biggish prices as a rule of thumb. Have done them in the past but don’t recommend them any more.There is a service that boasts an over 90% hit rate with lays but in a recent trial I did with them (watching only) one of their published lays was an 85.0 play as a recommended single play in a race. I’m bookmaker stock as you know and I’ve done horse racing for over 45 years and I’m here to tell you that anyone who lays a single in a race at that price is taking one hell of a risk. Part of a book on the race ok. But singly as part of a tipping service? Deeply irresponsible. It did get beat I hasten to add. Seventh of sixteen. Nowhere near last! Those horses do win. Of course they do. Like I say, these days with what is available to us as punters, attention paid to the market just as important as race reading. Treat the market with respect is the BOZmail way and you won’t come a cropper short term,long term or any term. Bide your time and stay sensible. Profit will accumulate.

Which brings me finally to BOZmail rule number 5 and the way this month has gone so far.My most important rule for long term (but they are all important or they wouldn’t be there) and one to impress on newcomers not sure of what they have seen from the service so far in 2020. It hasn’t been great. It’s been February. A tricky time for punting every year. You can fluke a good score in February but careful profit backing every day does take management and I’ve been very aware of that this year starting the cycle in a tricky month. Racing has been very inconsistent – with weather and everything – and so have I. Twice came close to getting LIM established for the month but seen it pulled back first by Annie Mc and then by Ibleo. Have to take those on the chin. Laying hasn’t been as strong as usual this month but is only marginally down SR wise. Compensated for by backs being above average now thanks to Goring and despite With Discretion on Friday! Nothing’s perfect! The key aspect of rule 5 is work all the time to stay either side of break even so that when you land your biggish winner (which you will not every day with LIM but dotted throughout the year. I play outsiders in general so they ain’t all gonna win) but when they do, LIM ensures they are all profit. Nothing is spent covering losers. That’s why I swear by the LIM approach. It ain’t for everybody because it takes work and you have to sit and suffer spells when you don’t seem to be moving forward. Patience always rewarded. Discipline and sticking to the system always rewarded. Good old Goring and well done to the market for ignoring him!

So now I have managed to press on a bit for February and can up stakes a bit for the final week – reinvesting a tad of the profit. Only modest though at this stage and perhaps not straight away. Sunday still looks a bit on the wet side! Oh, and other thing I meant to mention was for me,everyday is a case of have I landed on the correct LIM play? I take my satisfaction as much from that as any money I win. Leaving the strongly tempting Kingwell alone to back Goring worth more to me than all the profits which I hope you guys are enjoying tonight! Thanks to those sending in their appreciation. Appreciation always appreciated! But for me, just another day at the office and on at long last (by eck that Boswell rabbits on) to Sunday’s play!

It’s Fontwell and regulars will know that means shortlist time. Not publishing tomorrow (but have compiled and used to inform the LIM play) because of ground conditions but am starting a publishing sequence additional to the BOZmail as previously stated. This will begin on March 10th starting with the five days of the Cheltenham festival and feature 64 meetings in total between then and end of August. Full terms and details will be going out next week. Several of you already signed up I know but any newcomers interested in seeing those details, my usual email address (garyboswell@hotmail.com) and I’ll despatch by return.

Meanwhile on to Sunday. I have been torn and split between two races at Fontwell between the National Spirit which I think favourite Thomas Darby will win following the huge form frank he received from Song for Someone at Kempton on Saturday.

Big horse of interest to us for its performance on our Ascot acca in January and because of course all good runs by Thomas Darby boost the chance of one of our Cheltenham big four – Maire Banrigh – who outspeeded him over fences earlier in the season. Thomas Darby is fav and was 6/5 when I was considering for a back only play on Sunday but has gone odds on since the Song for Someone form frank. Still one possible play however. The other is in the following race the 3-50 where Notre Pari is vulnerable at odds on against Gary Moore’s Black Gerry. Notre Pari has won a better race over the distance at Aintree but that was on better ground and breeding suggests the further distance might not suit on softer. Confirmed going on times achieved at race race before Aintree (at market rasen).He has also fallen since Aintree in a Listed race at kempton so comes with risks attached. Black Gerry will love the ground. Is competitive time wise with that Market rasen run on soft ground and this is a race Gary Moore farms every year and has chosen Black Gerry over a stable star to run in this. I think he means business.

An Olly Murphy to win or an Olly Murphy to lose. Or both?

Its marginal but I’m just in favour of only one play as a profit protection strategy after yesterday and will be supporting that boosted Thomas Darby form.     

Recommendations:

0.15pt BACK on THOMAS DARBY (around evens or best price you can get)

LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 11/17 = 64.7%  Backs: 3/10 = 30%

THE BOZ’s daily LIM record for FEBRUARY:

1st:  +0.196  (+0.196) Lay @ 3.3

2nd: +0.147 (+0.343) Lay @ 2.28

3rd: +0.196 (+0.539) Lay @ 2.9

4th:  NO BET DAY

5th: NO BET DAY

6th: +0.097 (+0.636) Lay @ 2.5 : Back @ 15.0

7th: -0.288 (+0.348) Lay @ 1.96

8th:   -0.2 (+0.148) Back @ 2.56

9th: RACING ABANDONED

10th: -0.21 (-0.062) Lay @ 2.4

11th: -0.191 (-0.253) Lay @ 1.94 : Back @ 14.0

12th: +0.6223 (+0.3693) Lays @ 2.64 & 3.04 : Back @ 6.4

13th:  -0.14 (+0.2293) Lay @ 2.4

14th:  +0.147 (+0.3763) Lays @ 4.2 & 4.65(in running) : Back @ 14.0

15th:  -0.204 (+0.1723) Lay @ 2.36

16th:  +0.098 (+0.2703) Lay @ 2.4

17th:  +0.086 (+0.3563) Lay @ 2.7 : Back @ 6.6

18th:  +0.3007 (+0.657) Lay @ 2.66 : Back @ 3.05

19th:   +0.147 (+0.804) Lay @ 1.44 

20th:   -0.34 (+0.464) Lay @ 2.2 : Back @ 4.4

21st:   +0.047 (+0.511) Lay @ 3.3 : Back @ 10.0

22nd:  +0.54 (+1.051) Lay NOT MATCHED : Back @ 12.0

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Unwin VC* 

Tea Clipper* 

Black Op – Entered for RSA & Marsh Novices (Mar 11&12)

Verdana Blue – Entered for Champion Hurdle & Mares Hurdle (Mar 10)

Maire Banrigh* – Entered for Arkle (Mar 10) & Marsh Novices (Mar 12)

Thyme Hill* – Entered for Ballymore & Albert Bart(Mar 13)

Nordano* – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 11 & 13)

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes 

Vinndication – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 10)

Lostintranslation* – Entered for Gold Cup at Cheltenham (Mar 13)

Cat Tiger* – Entered for Ballymore (Mar 11 & 12) & Albert Bartlett (Mar 13)               

Welsh Saint* – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 12)

Normandy Soldier* 

Jatiluwih – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 12)

Esprit Du Large – Entered for The Arkle (Mar 10) & Marsh Novices (Mar 12)

Magic of Light* – Entered for  Chelt (Mar 10) & Grand National (Apr 4)

Defi Sacre* 

Lieutenant Rocco*Entered for Wincanton(Feb 26)&the Albert Bartlett Novice (Mar 13)

Israel Champ

Soaring Glory 

Ambion Hill 

Quick Wave

It’safreebee 

Sporting John – Entered for Supreme & Ballymore at Cheltenham

Captain Zebo

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ANTE POST ACCA FOR CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL:

Lostintranslation @ 8/1

Verdana Blue @ 33/1

Marie Banrigh @ 25/1

Thyme Hill @ 6/1

0.01pt WIN ACCA with acca edge accepted. 

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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