BOZmail – 23rd AUGUST

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

FRIDAY AUGUST 23rd  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 55.451 points after month 8 (+35.451 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +8.3313 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +5.7452 points

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LESS IS MORE: FRIDAY PLAY

2-25 YORK

Hands up if you couldn’t resist the 45/1 BSP on Noble Glance?? In a three horse race!! Must admit it crossed my mind as Monkey Puzzle came out. Been around LIM a long time now and three horse races often end this way! I settled for an extra lay on the fav when I saw his paddock profile (not fully fit) with the idea of boosting my Danboru winnings but of course LIM means I win more on the rag too. Felt sorry for Danboru who ran a cracking race. Sorry but I ultimately couldn’t have backed Noble Glance with washers on form. Sometimes however it does pay just to back on price! And those who have emailed in to say your taking the outsider was unprofessional of you. Course it wasn't. Had you received my paddock watch report, you'd maybe have trebled your stake!! Always back value and Noble Glance was definitely that. Danboru could have fallen and Win My Wings wasn't fully fit. Didn't need either of those things. Won anyway and on merit. Get on in and pat yourself on the back if you backed it. Great professional decision!

Perfect cue into the Lonsdale where Dee Ex Bee finally gets his chance to lower Stradivarius’ colours getting a 3lb weight allowance and only a neck down last time.

Frankie and The Strad do tend to find a way to win and he gave weight to Count Octave in this last year. Now we are talking Dee Ex Bee however and the horse Johnston has been nursing towards winning a Gold Cup. His day will come. This could be it. I go a bit more gung ho after breaking the losing streak yesterday. This is an exciting day at York with the Gimcrack also in our sights (see below).

Recommendations:

0.5pt LAY on STRADIVARIUS (around 1.54 : no greater than 1.7)

0.2pt BACK on DEE EX BEE (around 4.5 or better)

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This month plays so far:

1st:       +1.244(+1.244) Lay @ 1.85 : Back @ 4.8

2nd:      -0.5465(+0.6975) Lay @ 1.99 : Back @ 3.3

3rd:       -0.024 (+0.6735) Lays @2.08 & 2.08 : Back @ 11.5

4th:       +0.045(+0.7185) Lay @ 3.45 : Back @ 11.0

5th:       +0.196(+0.9145) Lay @ 2.08

6th:        -0.48 (+0.4345) Lay @ 3.4

7th:        +0.39 (+0.8245) Lay @ 1.69 : Back @ 11.0

8th:        -0.4425(+0.382)  Lay @ 1.55 : Backs @ 6.4 & 4.1

9th:        +0.245 (+0.627) Lay @ 2.2

10th:       -0.655 (-0.028)  Lay @ 1.71 : Back @ 5.6

11th:       +0.147(+0.119) Lay @ 4.4

12th:       +0.145(+0.264) Lay @ 1.73 : Back @ 55.0

13th:       +0.145(+0.409) Lay @ 4.1 : Back @ 6.2

14th:       +1.434(+1.843) Lay @ 2.06 : Back @ 8.6

15th:        -0.3 (+1.543) Lay @ 1.6

16th:        NON RUNNER

17th:        +0.565(+2.108) Lay @ 1.55 : Back @ 4.2

18th:        +0.245(+2.353) Lay @ 2.1

19th:         -0.18 (+2.173) Lay @ 1.9

20th:         -0.35 (+1.823) Back @2.24

21st:         -0.4055(+1.4175) Lay @ 1.47 : Back @ 11.5

22nd:        +0.145 (+1.5625) Lay @1.27 : Back @ 4.3

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 149/222 = 67.11% :   BACKS: 44/152 = 28.94%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Commodore Barry

Kaizer 

Caius Marcius 

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel 

Dee Ex Bee – Entered for Qipco Cup at Ascot (Oct 19)

Raise You – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Maydanny

Roseman – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Light Up Our Stars 

Waldpfad – Entered in Haydock Sprint Cup (Sep 7) & Ascot (Oct 19)

Miss Celestial 

Deirdre – Entered for Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown (Sep 14)&Ascot(Oct 19)

Piedita – Entered at Chepstow (Aug 26)

James Watt – Entered for Ayr Gold Cup (Sep 21)

Lord of the Lodge 

TO FOLLOW/TRADE on FRIDAY:

3-00 YORK – LORD OF THE LODGE @ 16/1

Got a genuine each way chance – especially where you can take odds for fourth place included – but I’ll be sticking to the trade principles of back at best price you can get and hedge in running. I’m expecting him to be competitive if he gets away ok.

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.12 points.

 Acca number 18: 

Will shout as the final staggered acca starter emerges.

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US OPEN PORTFOLIO:

Sadly Amanda Anisimova has withdrawn from the US Open following the shock death of her father and coach Konstantin. Her place in the portfolio is taken by Iga Swiatek. Also hedged back on Sofia Kenin following her successful trek to the

semis in Cincinnati.
 

Recommendations: 

1.5pt LAY on SERENA at around 6.4 

0.25pt BACK on IGA SWIATEK at 200/1

0.25pt BACK on CORI GAUFF at 80/1 

0.25pt BACK on SOFIA KENIN at 67.0  – 0.25pt LAY @30.0

0.25pt BACK ON DANIELLE COLLINS at 250/1  

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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