BOZmail 23rd AUGUST

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

SUNDAY AUGUST 23rd  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 22.2442 points (+2.2442 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 15.7932 points (+7.7932 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.655 points (-0.345 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.53 points)

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BOZmail 2020 cycle PART ONE(1/2 – 31/5) overall profit  = +4.2876 points

                                      PART TWO(1/6 – 31/1 )  overall profit = +8.6934 points

                                          BOZmail 2020 overall score = +12.9810 points

PART ONE LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 25/41 = 60.97%  Backs: 9/29 = 31.03%

PART TWO LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 44/57 = 77.19%  Backs : 7/27 = 25.92%

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LESS IS MORE:

1-45 CARTMEL

Return Ticket was pretty disappointing. Failed his paddock watch and jumped hurdles like STD might have marked him confidence wise. I hope not but that may explain the sale of course. Stays off my To Follow for a bit where I had hoped he was returning. Hopefully he returns next back over fences with some of his old elan. But looks like Rebecca may have a training task on her hands.

So not a great damage done but a bad day to be going into my bet of the year at Cartmel on Sunday. The bet of such a year I think I should call it! Murphys is on and off my tail at the moment so I am tailoring stakes slightly with bank management in mind. This is however my race of the year so far and I cover it comprehensively in the final Local Track Factor section of the year below.

LIM sees me simple laying the fav. I did have the two novice hurdles that open the meeting to choose against but have plumped for this instead. Nice to have choice for a change!

Glan Y Gors did win well here LTO and won’t be inconvenienced by the ground but must shoulder his penalty against the field and does have an inexplicably big weight turnaround against The Steward also to counter. That clinches it for me. A fairly confident lay of the day.

Recommended:

0.2pt LAY on GLAN Y GORS (around 3.8) 

LIM scores for August:

1st :  NO BET

2nd : +0.0886  (+0.0886) Lay @ 1.93 : Back @ 7.0

3rd:   +0.0245  (+0.1131) Lay @ 3.75

4th:   +0.385    (+0.4981) Lays @ 3.75 & 3.3 :Backs @ 15.0 & 3.75

5th:   +0.0671 (+0.5652) Lay @ 2.38 & 14.0 : Backs @ 19.0 & 4.0

6th:    NON RUNNER

7th:    +0.049  (+0.6142) Lay @ 4.4 : Back @ 7.0

8th:    -0.475 (+0.1392) Lay @ 2.5 : Back @ 6.4

9th:    NO BET

10th:  +0.441 (+0.5802) Lay @ 3.75 : Back @ 8.0

11th:  +0.686 (+1.2662) Back @ 6.6

12th:  +0.0392 (+1.3054) Lay @ 3.75 : Back @ 5.9 

13th:   NON RUNNER

14th:   +0.0294 (+1.3348) Lay @ 1.94 : Back @ 2.2

15th:   NO BET

16th:    -0.124  (+1.2108) Lays @ 2.8 & 4.2

17th:   NO BET

18th:    +0.147 (+1.3578) Lay @ 1.98 : Back @13.0

19th:    NON RUNNER

20th:    -0.018 (+1.3398) Lay @ 1.44 : Back @ 1.54

21st:    +0.147(+1.4868) Lay @ 2.7 : Back @ 8.8

22nd:   -0.1    (+1.3868) Back @ 5.2

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THE FINAL LOCAL TRACK FACTOR SECTION of 2020:

OK, so this is THE day. The one I’ve been waiting for. You go through the year on a day by day basis managing the bank in the tortoise direction of gradually accumulating profit. And every now and then, you have a proper bet on a race that falls into your knowledge zone and doesn’t have too many unknowns or variables in it. Of course, Murphys Law can still interfere and it is jump racing so in running accidents can also scupper all best laid plans. But as best laid plans go, this is my day in the weird year of 2020. Cartmel Cup day. Usually Bank Holiday Monday. Usually packed to the rafters. Usually run for a decentish £12k prize (this year a measly £5.5k prize to the winner). Not even called the Cartmel Cup this year (too much of a disgrace for the Queen’s cousin to be awarding such a derisory prize?) and so renamed,rather tellingly, the William Hill play responsibly Handicap Hurdle. The chance for Government propaganda rather than propahorse racing?

Never, never in the history of the world has it been broadcast live on ITV!! That may be because of the cancellation of Chepstow but also may not be that. Never been invaded by ITV cameras round here since the Morecambe Bay cockling disaster (also involved the Queen’s cousin as Morecambe Bay is officially crown land and they hold the much in the news fishing rights thereon).

And in this weird year, Jimmy Moffat decides to avoid the rest of the card and put all his eggs in this one race. An attempt at the tricast! And the shortlist picks two of the three!

The BOZ has swept the race. This is what I do for LIM races each day and occasionally on big field races of interest. The Grand National sometimes (lot of work) and the Cartmel Cup. But not every year. Famously missed last year when The Steward screamed in at big odds.Murphys on my tail that day.

Just nine runners this year (presumably because of the reduced prize money and no trophy!!) but my sweep has eliminated four of them. McCain’s Constancio is the most difficult one because of the combo and record at the track. Red hot here two weeks ago but stable hit a flat spot since and whilst Constancio has speed, his only run at this track suggested he didn’t like the place. Stepped twice at the Priory Hurdle suggesting an eye line deficiency that catches quite a few out until they get used to it. Lost ground and struggled to go pace second circuit. Had a similar weak finish in his only race since lockdown so despite Hughes on board, the three negatives mean he hits the eliminated pile as second fav.  Joined by Burdigala (unlikely form profile with mixed French form and seriously outclassed here LTO by Glan Y Gors and The Steward. Don’t see him reversing that), Flat to the Max (one bit of speedy Irish form to his name so not without potential but stable quiet, more a flat all weather horse now and off the track 577 days over hurdles. Possible dark horse potential because all weather flats have done well here and does have Gordon Elliot trained jump history but on balance, stable/jockey booking and recent form all negatives) & Iolani (also some dark horse potential from stable in form but up in class and looks to be a stamina horse so not likely to be suited by Cartmel. Well held by Beeno on only try here).

Which leaves the big five including Moffats three plus Beeno who is a standing dish round here and Glan Y Gors who beat The Steward here at the last meeting. There is however a huge 16lb weight turn around on that result this time for just eight and a half lengths. GYG has penalty to carry against the others too and impressive whilst that win was, huge doubt cast over whether he can win again and he is the day’s LIM lay as a result. Not my idea of favourite for the race. The time was also less than impressive for the course. The Steward should munch him this time at those weights. Jimmy will be scenting blood and dead keen to see his charge defend the absent trophy (which he presumably keeps for another year anyways!!).

That said, he has what I now perceive as stable jockey (Charlotte is a Barrow lass and lives and works here in Cartmel now) on topweight Altruism who is on his mark still despite winning LTO. Withdrawn at the last Cartmel and saved for this and very much the stable plot horse of the past. Ten years old now and capable of the two types of race of the serious handicap plot horse. Either running round at the back busy getting his mark down or ridden to win. This looks to me like the latter but not beyond Jimmy to jock as he has just to put off the likes of me!

Little doubt he has eyes on the prize and you probably know that my personal stable star at the moment is his third entry Golden Town. I’m over 100 points up backing him since he joined stable so he owes me nowt. Nor ever will. On paper he has the penalty to carry here for LTO win and gets Becky Smith rather than Charlotte in the plate. That might be mind games also but you have say he’d be third string in the Moffat bow. He’s going for 1-2-3 though. I guarantee it. And the 1-45 is my nap race of the day and tricast pick.

The tricast however is my play of the day.I go a 0.025pt combination tricast on the Moffat three. Total Spend = 0.15pt

I also go 0.1pt win single on Altruism. As I write this at 3pm Saturday, weather has turned here and we could be expecting soft ground now (reason why I have downgraded tricast stake from that posted earlier on shortlist publication given that this is also working from a different bank) which will be ok for Altruism but is a question mark for The Steward’s winning chance. The shortlist bets do stand as published I hasten to add. And no trading today! This is the Boz having a punt!

For the record, I did also look hard at the two novice hurdles that open the card for LIM possible purpose. McCain fav in each and both look two horse races. Mustang Alpha could win the first if he’s fit after lay off and Diodorus is very competitive on paper with Finisk River who is short price on early tissue so that Tristan Davidson’s charge is likely value. If I ever owned a racehorse, Davidson is the trainer I would choose to take care of it. Only a small outfit near here but he manages an over 20% strike rate over last five years with his string. That puts him up with Henderson and Nicholls! Very much a trainer I admire.  And so I also propose a 0.1pt treble to mark my bet of the year day! From the accumulator bank:

12-45 Cartmel : Mustang Alpha

1-15 Cartmel : Diodorus

1-45 Cartmel : Altruism

Total spend on the day: 0.35 points                

BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker 

Ransom

Battleground – Entered for  Curragh (Sep13)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

Alicestar – Entered at Yarmouth (Aug 25) & Lingfield (Aug 26)

Custard The Dragon – Entered at Musselburgh (Aug 26)

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Check My Pulse 

Balagan 

Ashutor 

Sangha River 

Captain Tom Cat 

Lord Condi 

Saint Sam (FR)

Rubytwo – Entered at Bangor (Aug 25)

Pisgah Pike – Entered for Southwell (Aug 24)

Hiconic

Young Wolf

Sirobbie 

Little Jessture 

Soldier of Love 

Lady Bowes 

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Sporting Press

Global Tour – Entered for Southwell (Aug 24)

Samsons Reach 

Leoncavallo

Longhouse Sale

Oscar Rose – Entered for Sedgefield (Aug 27)

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April         : – 0.1733 points

May          : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June         : + 0.0428 points

July          : + 0.8046 points  (+2.7744points)

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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