BOZmail – 23rd APRIL

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

TUESDAY APRIL 23rd 2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stands at 36.0395 points after month 4

LESS IS MORE: TUESDAY PLAY

2-25 LUDLOW

Eleventh straight lay and closing in on my personal sixteen day record set in January this year and you may have noticed a move back to the tactic that lead to the four losers in a row i.e. taking on the shorty. That is the preferred approach to LIM but have to shift away from it at times when it ain’t working as it wasn’t earlier this month. May have been guilty then of going too strong on that tactic but I was aware of it at the time and kept stakes modest. Rowed the boat out to end an excellent Easter weekend as you’ll have seen basically because the climate has changed meantime. My form likewise and you can expect a return to that tactic for a while now when I can find a shorty I want to take on.

Thought I had one here which is Robin Dickin’s All is good which early forecasts suggested might be in at even money but the tissue has actually swayed heavily towards Baby King who has shedloads of weight to give away but is the undoubted class and I make him clear fav of the front two as does the market.

So on a day when I’ve actually found it hard to pick a race I’m happy with, I stick with the lay on All is Good but revert to caution and bank management with no desire to hand back Monday’s plus. This is actually a very bad race and All is Good could just win it by default but has a serious LTO run to be forgiven and hails from a yard very low on the in form running chart. Baby King ranks ok on that but the dark horse in such a race is Billy Hicks who you can’t really fancy on his form but whose stable rates very highly on that chart (67%) and seeing as it is a stable my wife knows well – based in her neck of the woods – I shall be keeping my eye on him if I trade the race.

More likely I’ll play small to keep the lay run going and oppose All is Good to small money.

Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on ALL IS GOOD (around 2.8 : no greater than 3.3)

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This month plays so far:

1st: NON RUNNER  

2nd:   +0.355 (+0.355) LAY @ 1.9 : BACK @ 2.6

3rd:     -0.6 (- 0.245) LAY @  2.5 : BACK @ 10.0

4th:     +0.24 (- 0.005) LAY @  3.8

5th:     +0.044(+0.039) LAY @ 3.5 : BACK @ 3.5

6th:     +0.343(+0.382) LAY @ 2.2

7th:     +0.39 (+0.772) LAY @ 2.52 : BACK @ 12.0

8th:     – 0.52 (+0.252) LAYS @ 3.6 & 4.7 : BACK @ 9.2

9th:     – 0.26 (- 0.008) LAY @ 1.8 : BACK @ 8.0

10th:   – 0.276(- 0.284) LAY @ 1.88 : BACK @ 22.0

11th:   – 0.34 (- 0.624) LAY @ 2.2  : BACK @ 10.5

12th:   +0.343 (- 0.281) LAY @ 3.2

13th:   +0.294 (+0.013) LAY @ 3.4

14th:   +0.243 (+0.256) LAY @ 3.2 : BACK @ 7.0

15th:   +0.545 (+0.801) LAY @ 4.0 : BACK @ 4.5

16th:   +0.193 (+0.994) LAY @ 2.86 : BACK @ 6.0

17th:   +0.098 (+1.092) LAY @ 4.0

18th:   +0.193 (+1.285) LAY @ 2.42 : BACK @ 8.69

19th:    +0.624 (+1.909)LAY @ 2.4(in running) : BACK @ 4.3

20th:    +0.243 (+2.152)LAY @ 2.0 : BACK @ 38.0

21st:     +0.194 (+2.346)LAY @ 2.62 : BACK @ 28.0

22nd:    +0.686 (+3.032)LAY @ 1.7

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 91/127 = 71.65% :   BACKS: 20/83 = 24.09%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Endless Credit

Opechee

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10.054 points.

Staggered acca number 9: (LEG 3)

Will shout when the next leg emerges.  

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast

for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz

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