BOZmail – 22nd SEPTEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 22nd  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 57.0715 points after month 9 (+37.0715 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +12.3567 points

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BOZMAIL 2019 COMBINED PROFIT TOTAL = +57.0095 points

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LESS IS MORE: SUNDAY PLAY

4-15 PLUMPTON

Fair to say that I turned the September LIM form round this week with three successful backs from four and I had looked forward to a bit of a punt on Sunday if Quintada won as I like Plumpton despite it not being an official shortlist track. Struggled with the card a bit though. Two shortlist nap fancies are both favourite and I’m struggling to find a lay for the day with not much on offer elsewhere either. 

So I’ll stay in cautious and profit protection mode another day with the play being a small punt on the old Tizzard boy – Sizing Granite – in this. With the exception of Exxaro, the Tizzard old boys have been in scintillating form of late including this guy although to be fair he has a few negatives in this – not least a handicap hurdle mark he has never won off in his long and illustrious career. As a chaser in his day he’d have eaten these with his effort in the Maghull Novices at Aintree in 2015 seriously stand out group 1 form. The opposition in this race however do all have a case to be made for them so LIM would normally be looking therefore to oppose the fav. The staying hand however is that it is still September. Rules do get broken in September and form study is less than reliable – how I was getting behind earlier in the month – and not to be forgotten that I’ve turned it round now by resurrecting the old shortlist system and adding in a new twist that has found nine nap winners out of ten over jumps the past fortnight and has Sizing Granite the clearish pick in this (along with Archimento in the 2-15). I’m trusting to that for small stake Sunday (and hoping he doesn’t do an Exxaro) in the absence of anything else although you will also find a to follow horse to trade again below at Hamilton which is reasonably interesting. More interesting betting wise anyways than anything that happened at Ayr on Saturday!!

Recommendation:

0.2pt BACK on SIZING GRANITE (around 2.75 or better)

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This month plays so far:

1st:    -0.24 (-0.24)  Lay @ 1.4 : Back @ 34.0  

2nd:   -0.25 (-0.49)  Back @ 2.2

3rd:    NO PLAY DAY 

4th:    +0.49 (+0.0) Lay @ 1.9  

5th:    -0.44 (-0.44) Lay @ 1.88    

6th:    -0.19 (-0.63) Lay @ 1.38

7th:    -0.542(-1.172) Lay @ 2.12 : Back @ 9.0

8th:     -0.6 (-1.772) Lay @ 3.0 : Back @ 12.0

9th:     +0.34(-1.432) Lay @ 1.75 : Backs @ 11.0 & 18.0

10th:   -0.483(-1.915) Lay @ 2.38

11th:   +0.095(-1.82) Lay @ 3.6 : Back @ 4.4

12th:   +0.13 (-1.69) Backs @ 4.8 & 4.8

13th:    -0.266(-1.956) Lay @ 1.76

14th:    +0.094(-1.862) Lay @ 4.0 : Back @ 6.6

15th:    +0.245(-1.617) Lay @ 3.7 

16th:    +0.954(-0.663) Lay @ 3.9 : Back @ 7.6

17th:    -0.1245(-0.7875) Lay @ 1.83

18th:    -0.385 (-1.1725) Lay @ 2.14 : Back @ 28.0

19th:    +1.595 (+0.4225) Lay @ 2.28 : Back @ 10.0

20th:    +0.245 (+0.6675) Lay @ 2.38

21st:     +0.527(+1.1945) Lay @ 1.8 : Back @ 4.8

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 162/247 = 65.58% :   BACKS: 48/167 = 28.74%

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.96 points. 

Will shout as and when new starter emerges.      

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Commodore Barry

Kaizer 

Caius Marcius 

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel 

Raise You – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Maydanny

Roseman – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Waldpfad  – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Miss Celestial – Entered at Curragh (Sep 28)

Deirdre – Entered at Longchamp (Oct 6) & Ascot(Oct 19)

Piedita 

Lord of the Lodge 

Mum’s Tipple – Entered for Newmarket (Sep 28) & (Oct 12)

HORSE TO FOLLOW/TRADE on SATURDAY:

2-40 AYR – JAMES WATT @ 40/1 – 0.1pt BACK 

Backed at a whopping 150.0 and easily hedged before the off at 80.0. Good job because absolutely no show in the race! Serious minefield day for punters but LIM sneaked us another good profit!                      P/L on trade = 0

HORSE TO FOLLOW/TRADE on SUNDAY:

5-00 HAMILTON – KAIZER @ 13/2 – 0.25pt BACK

Very interesting that they persevere with Kaizer on the flat when he’s 1/1 over hurdles and understandable that he tries a drop in trip here after leading two furlongs out last twice over 1m 6f. Has a hot fav to beat in this but should run prominent again so usual trade play. Back at the biggest price you can get to hedge at preferential odds when appropriate either before the off or in running.  

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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