BOZmail 22nd SEPTEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet 

TUESDAY SEPTEMBER 22nd  2020 

BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +15.9159 points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 25.2671 points (+5.2671 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 19.6343 points (+11.6343 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 5.1635 points (+0.1635 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 79/112 = 70.53%  Backs : 21/68 = 30.88%

3-30 WARWICK

That was an unwanted reverse on Monday where it turns out I do know more than Tom George (!) and Blue N Yellow failed to stay as his breeding suggested he might. Looked in the bag two out and traded at 1.04 for you clever in play monkeys. Worse for traditional LIM was the late surge of Kittys Light who looked a well held third two out but rallied up the run in despite his jockey having no tack! What drama! Double whammy worse of course for traditional LIMers was Dhabyah’s defeat at 1/20! Any think it unwise for me to shift to running the TRADE PAPER next year?? Hey ho. The death of Old Gambler The BOZ is complete. Welcome in the trader!

Not until 2021 though. I stick to the old way for a while longer yet! Maybe it will change me back again before Xmas!

Choice again on Tuesday and after the horlicks I made of Monday’s choice, perhaps I have become in need of a forced one available race only! Very frustrated by that but Murphys having a laugh no doubt and important to put yesterday behind and approach Tuesday afresh. Doesn’t do to carry the baggage of frustration.

Very little between the favs in this race with both carrying 10lb penalties but I’d already decided to lay Neville’s Cross on the basis of times before I saw the prices. Expected him as marginally second fav but he’s opened on tissue as fav. That could of course yoyo again in the market watch but I remain with Jonjo’s of the two and there is in fact also case to be made for Laugharne and Lord Springfield so far from being just a two horse race.

Simple lay day for me in an attempt to consolidate on yesterday’s frustration!

Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on NEVILLE’S CROSS (around 2.5. Get the lowest price you can) 

LIM SCORES FOR SEPTEMBER:

1st:  +0.196  (+0.196) Lay @ 3.55

2nd: NO BET

3rd:  -0.345  (-0.149) Lay @ 3.3

4th: NO BET

5th: NO BET

6th:  +0.1764 (+0.0274) Lay @ 1.84

7th: NO BET

8th:  -0.1       (-0.0726) Back @ 12.0

9th:  +0.3234 (+0.2508) Back @ 3.2

10th: NO BET

11th: NO BET

12th: -0.465 (-0.2142) Lay @ 2.86

13th: NO BET

14th: NO BET

15th: +0.4441 (+0.2299) Lay @ 2.2 : Back @ 3.45

16th: NO BET

17th: +0.098  (+0.3279) Lay @ 1.8 : Back @ 14.0

18th: NO BET

19th: +0.4042 (+0.7321) Back @ 3.75

20th: +0.098  (+0.8301) Lay @ 2.4 : Back @ 16.0

21st:  -0.31    (+0.5201) Lay @ 2.3 : Back @ 6.0

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker 

Ransom

Battleground – Entered for Newmarket (Sep26) & (Oct 10)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

Alicestar

Custard The Dragon 

Plainchant(FR)

Aramhes(FR)

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Check My Pulse 

Sangha River 

Captain Tom Cat 

Saint Sam (FR)

Pisgah Pike 

Hiconic 

Young Wolf 

Sirobbie 

Little Jessture 

Soldier of Love 

Lady Bowes(soft) 

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Sporting Press 

Samsons Reach 

Leoncavallo – Entered in the Cesarewitch (Oct 10)

Longhouse Sale 

Oscar Rose 

She’s a Rocca(heavy)

Charm Offensive

Timetoroe(heavy)

Baby Jane

Caius Marcius

Calum Gilhooly

The Butcher Said

Leapaway

Return Ticket(flat track)

NH TO FOLLOW TRADE PLAYS on MONDAY:

12-45 WARWICK – BALAGAN @ 11/4 – 0.25pt BACK

Backed @ 3.5 : hedged 0.3pt @ 2.76 : P/L = +0.049pts

3-35 LEICESTER – LITTLE JESSTURE @ 14/1 – 0.1pt BACK

Backed @ 36.0 : hedged 0.15pt @ 18.0 : P/L = +0.049pts

I did say these would be fascinating market watches and weren’t they just. Especially the 3 horse one! Quite a bit of 70.0 on Little Jessture which I managed to miss. Well done if you snaffled that! I was in and out fairly early and decided to fix my play although I must admit I found the temptation of the 1.06 lay on Dhabyah that got traded too good to miss. Hedged it back in running which of course proved a bit of a mistake! Profit however is always profit. Well done if you won big on the Dhabyah lay. You’ve got more bottle than me!

I slanted both my pre race plays here on the win and roared Little Jessture til I was hoarse(with an a!). Ran well I thought and then realised he was the one running back in third!

NH TO FOLLOW TRADE PLAYS on TUESDAY:

4-40 WARWICK – YOUNG WOLF @7/4 – 0.25pt BACK

Get the best price you can and hedge as appropriate and when preferential odds are offered.

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April         : – 0.1733 points

May          : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June         : + 0.0428 points

July          : + 0.8046 points  

August    :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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