BOZmail – 22nd OCTOBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

TUESDAY OCTOBER 22nd  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 57.666 points after month 9 (+37.666 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +13.1887 points

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BOZMAIL 2019 COMBINED PROFIT TOTAL = +58.436 points

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LESS IS MORE: TUESDAY PLAY

4-10 EXETER

Observations about Monday’s play? The LIM purists had their day (as they always do) and proved me wrong in fighting shy of laying Agent Westy. Cautious as ever me and no regrets. If I’d known however that Agent Westy would fall, I would have had Wenceslaus as next leg of Staggered acca. I was pretty confident we had Agent Westy covered on the flat but stamina and jumping did involve a modicum of doubt (nothing’s ever certain in this game as we know – always degrees of possibility & probability) and stableform also not really on our side. Trainer interview after the race however suggested Bridgie was confident. Market however ploughed into Enforcement. I was sure we had him covered and Code of Law likewise so I could have laid Agent Westy when I saw the drift on his price as the market flew for Enforcement. Now I’ve seen the race I’m glad I didn’t. A couple of you have asked whether I thought loose horse caused Enforcement to lose his race at the open ditch.

The way I saw it, the normally excellent James Best put his mount in for a cautious one (possibly due to nearness of Killabraher who jumped a smidgeon across him and shaped so at take-off) and our boy – who was travelling well at the time – pinged it and stole eight lengths and the race. I say we would have beaten Enforcement anyway.My figures suggested it. They ain’t always right but more often than not they are. They suggested we’d beat Agent Westy too at Plumpton. We’ll not know if that was right. Code of Law and Killabraher Cross assessment was. Enforcement was bet and ridden as though expected to win. Seen the race now. They got that wrong. We was on the best horse.

This time of year when NH form settles down, the Boz is doing this job cos he gets that sort of thing right. Would that it were only every day of the year! We benefited from the late price drift on Wenceslaus. Well done if you got on at 5.0 or better. 4.3 was Betfair SP (mean considering the late drift) and 7.4 the high in running. I managed an average out at 4.9 and very nearly hedged some out when Agent Westy fell. My nerve held out however.I’m a more nervous gambler than I am tipster! Third bullish bet of the month and the first to come in but the signal for me that we are in the zone now after two months of the importance of breaking even. Lady Bowes and Skeaping indicated the turn in our favour. I would expect it to continue now. A time of year thing. All systems go now until December 31st. January is always a tough patch. November occasionally is but The Boz when his confidence up and his calendar is backing it up starts looking to push on!

That said Tuesday’s LIM is not a bullish bet. Just two races that qualify and one of those a sprint on the all weather at Newcastle. Johnston’s fav to win that but not a race I would trust. The Best Mate Beginners Chase at Exeter ain’t loads better with little and no back chase form to go on. But an angle so although I thought about a no play day after our good run and with a shortlist day promised on Wednesday at Fontwell, I am going in this simply to play the prices and the probabilities if not necessarily the form suggested likely winner. That would be favourite Southfield Stone who has best hurdle form by a way over this trip. Moonlighter and the Mighty Don should want further according to the book whilst Litterale Ci has chances and so does Thistle Do Nicely. All but Moonlighter and Southfield Stone have raced over fences but none excelled and that’s the angle in this race. Watch the three who have jumped fences for first time at racing pace and find out how hard that can be to get round and win. Litterale Ci fell when travelling ok. His first and final mistake. The Mighty Don made an awful horlicks of a few at Fontwell and then unshipped. He can only do better but you wouldn’t want to back him. Distance too short anyways. The one you could consider backing is Thistle Do Nicely and not just cos he has a nice name to go well with the fact it’s in the brilliantly named Best Mate Beginners Chase! Thistle Do Nicely made a few horlicks on his debut but he did get round and that was in the Ballymoy race at Warwick. Ballymoy also lost cos of his jumping you’ll remember but that race could turn out hot form as suggested by the top two making my to follow list. Commanche Run also ran a fine race in third and Thistle Do Nicely was remote fourth but heavily eased once race was lost and ran most of the race keeping pace over the tough Warwick fences. That’s the reason that race may give us loads more winners over the season. My fancy for it was Equus Amadeus you’ll remember but he couldn’t do pace and finished a tired fifth. Thistle Do Nicely trounced him on merit in a fast run race against two or three top sorts and will presumably improve for the slightly easier obstacles at Exeter. If you want to blood your Beginner at the toughest chase course in England you go to Warwick (or Cheltenham or Haydock) and that’s what we saw in the Ballmoy race. Those that got round and stayed competitive did well and that includes Thistle do Nicely. He also has group hurdle form. Not as good as Southfield Stone’s but second best in the race. And Southfield Stone hasn’t jumped a fence at racing pace yet. If he does blemish free in this, he’ll be the only one in the race to do so on debut. He’s a lay. Of that I have no doubt. But because of the lack of back form in the race as a whole and with deference to bank management who are screaming to keep past five days’ profit in the bank – and because I get bullish again at Fontwell tomorrow! – I therefore stick to minimum stakes for Tuesday’s Play. Profit optimization is in my nature and my normal practise (why we’ll be going to closed shop annual membership next year : a topic I’ll come back to in weeks to come) unnecessary risks are not. My judgement as always focussed most on annual profit!   

Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on SOUTHFIELD STONE (around 2.0 : no greater than 2.5)

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BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 176/268 = 65.67% :   BACKS: 52/183 = 28.41%

This month’s scores so far:

1st:    -0.838 (-0.838) Lay @ 2.68 : Back @ 3.3

2nd:   -0.216 (-1.054) Lay @ 2.08

3rd:    +0.245(-0.809) Lay @ 1.66

4th:    +0.144(-0.665) Lay @ 2.6 : Back @ 12.0

5th:    +0.294 (-0.371) Lay @2.62

6th:    +0.145 (-0.226) Lay @ 4.09 : Back @ 5.0

7th:    -0.408 (-0.634) Lay @ 1.88 : Back @ 13.0

8th:    +0.558(-0.076) Lay @ 2.8 : Back @ 2.76

9th:    +0.196(+0.12) Lay @ 3.75

10th:  +0.49 (+0.61) Lay @ 1.76

11th:  +0.343(+0.953) Lay @ 3.0

12th:  -0.2   (+0.753) Back @ 1.99

13th:  RACING ABANDONED-WATERLOGGING

14th:  -0.64 (+0.113) Lay @ 2.8 : Back @ 32.0

15th:  -0.1   (+0.013) Back @ 6.0

16th:  -0.895 (-0.882) Lay @ 1.86 : Back @ 17.0

17th:  +0.097(-0.785) Lay @ 3.8 : Back @ 209.0

18th:  +1.535 (+0.75) Lay @ 1.96 : Back @7.0

19th:  +0.894 (+1.644) Lays @ 3.1,4.0 & 5.6 : Back @7.0

20th:  +0.147 (+1.791) Lay @ 4.0

21st:  +0.975 (+2.766) Back @ 4.9

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10.792 points. 

(FOURTH LEG:)

Will shout when next leg emerges.

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

La Bague au Roi

Unwin VC

Commodore Barry

Kaizer 

Raya Time

Tea Clipper

Nube Negra

Ballymoy

Verdana Blue

Maire Banrigh

Wenceslaus 

Tokaramore 

Flic Ou Voyou

Thyme Hill

Nordano

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes

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 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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