BOZmail @ 22nd OCTOBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet 

THURSDAY OCTOBER 22nd  2020 

BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +36.6844 points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 27.5448 points (+7.5448 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 38.3251 points (+30.3251 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.9635 points (-0.0365 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 95/131 = 72.51%  Backs : 25/80 = 31.25%

3-25 CARLISLE

Ten out of ten on the bounce now for LIM and working flat out to keep that going.Prettylittlething was a bit unlucky to bump into the rag I mentioned had to be kept an eye on and was heavily punted in the market down to 5/1 from 14/1. Well done if you worked out that was where the forecast was from what I wrote. PLT stays on the to follow list but her jump at the second last wasn’t the greatest and I’ll be keener NTO with a stronger jockey up. Not that she gave it a bad ride. Just showed her inexperience.

Looked hard at the Ribble Valley race for Thursday but only one other in the race really and RV notoriously can need a blow and Murphys horse is not far behind or out of it with improvement anyways so I pass on that race and take this competitive looking Handicap Chase. Damien’s Dilemma has been running well from the front but will need a career best again in this up in class and not guaranteed a front run either with Bailey’s in the race. He has a smashing record when bothering to come up to Carlisle where I can tell you it has rained all day Wednesday. 

All three above Damien’s Dilemma in the weights have a chance but Federici might be my slight preference on his Cartmel form whilst Boric also in with a shout. On balance, a lay the fav day.

Recommendation:

0.22pt LAY on DAMIENS DILEMMA (around 2.8)

LIM SCORES FOR OCTOBER:

1st: NO BET

2nd: +0.196  (+0.196) Lay @ 4.1

3rd:  -0.18     (+0.016) Lay @ 2.2

4th:  +0.147  (+0.163) Lay @ 4.4

5th: NO BET

6th: NO BET

7th:  -0.54     (-0.377) Lay @ 3.2 : Back @ 16.5

8th:  -0.392  (-0.769) Lay @ 2.12

9th: +0.441  (-0.328) Lay @ 1.25 : Back @ 8.0

10th: -0.1     (-0.428) Back @ 2.4

11th: +0.294 (-0.134) Lay @ 1.94 : Back @ 4.0

12th: NO BET

13th: +0.1558 (+0.0218) Back @ 2.59

14th: +0.098   (+0.1198) Lay @ 2.4

15th:  +0.245  (+0.3648) Lay @ 2.7 (averaged and after 22% Rule 4 deduction)

16th:  +0.196  (+0.5608) Lay @ 2.7

17th:  +0.4459 (+1.0067) Lay @ 1.7 : Back @ 3.05

18th:  +0.245  (+1.2517) Lay @ 2.3

19th:  +0.196  (+1.4477) Lay @ 4.35

20th:  +0.196  (+1.6437) Lay @ 2.7 : Back @ 12.5

21st:  +0.147  (+1.7907) Lay @ 2.9 : Back @ 11.5

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker 

Ransom

Battleground – Entered for Doncaster (Oct 24) & Irish Guineas(May 22)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5) & Irish Guineas (May 22)

Plainchant(FR) 

Aramhes(FR)

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Straw Fan Jack

McFabulous

Flic Ou Voyou 

Soaring Glory

Israel Champ

Bravemansgame

Sangha River

Captain Tom Cat – Entered @ Cheltenham(Oct 23)

Saint Sam (FR)

Pisgah Pike – Entered @ Wincanton (Oct 25)

Young Wolf 

Sirobbie      -Entered @ Cheltenham (Oct 24)

Soldier of Love – Entered @ Cheltenham (Oct 23)

Lady Bowes(soft) – Entered @ Ayr (Oct 26)

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Leoncavallo 

Oscar Rose 

She’s a Rocca(heavy) 

Charm Offensive – Entered @ Ayr (Oct 26)

Timetoroe(heavy)

Baby Jane

Caius Marcius – Entered @ Aintree (Oct 25)

Calum Gilhooly 

The Butcher Said

Mrs Hyde

Return Ticket(flat track) – Entered @ Cheltenham (Oct 23)

Redford Road

Not That Fuisse(good/good to soft) – Entered @ Cheltenham (Oct 24)

Carroll’s Milan

Prettylittlething 

Wenceslaus

Boothill

Al Dancer

Onemorefortheroad

Stormy Ireland

Eldorado Allen

For Pleasure

Fidelio Vallis (softish ground)

Enrichissant

Zamani

NH TO FOLLOW/TRADE horse on Wednesday at Hereford:

1-15 Timetoroe @ 4/1 – 0.1pt BACK – NON RUNNER

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April         : – 0.1733 points

May          : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June         : + 0.0428 points

July          : + 0.8046 points  

August    :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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