BOZmail 22nd NOVEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet

SUNDAY NOVEMBER 22nd  2020

 LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 111/154 = 72.07%  Backs : 30/97 = 30.92%

1-53 UTTOXETER

That’ll be the last time we lay Master Tommytucker who seems to have buried his jumping woes. Good performance and good ride by STD too who chose right. My iffy week is back with three misfired lays out of five. Must do better!

I’m back in backfoot mode for this Sunday after last Sunday’s heroics. There isn’t an official NH LIM qualifier and although I’ve found one on the flat all weather and one in Ireland, can’t like either of them as a play. So I stick at it with this Mares Handicap Hurdle at Uttoxeter and seven runners but can’t stay I’m wild about it and will be treating with extreme caution.

Misty Whisky has some classy looking novice efforts but has proved a bit of a madam in the putting her head in front stakes and comes here after a wind op and with a tongue tie to try and get that improved form showing in the results.

I prefer Fair Kate and Peace Prevails however. Both of whom have time plusses over the fragile fav whilst Llantara provides LIM cover and on a better run of form week, I might go stronger. Bank management however prevails this Sunday with no wish to dent last weekend’s success.

Recommendation:

0.15pt LAY on MISTY WHISKY (around 2.7)

*****************************************************

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Wild Polly

Straw Fan Jack 

McFabulous

Flic Ou Voyou 

Soaring Glory – Entered @ Kempton (Nov 23) & Wetherby (Nov 25)

Israel Champ

Bravemansgame 

Sangha River – Entered @ Musselburgh,Kempton & Ludlow (Nov 23)

Pisgah Pike – Entered @ Kempton (Nov 23)

Young Wolf 

Sirobbie – Entered @ Uttoxeter (Nov 22)   

Lady Bowes(soft)

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre 

Leoncavallo

Oscar Rose 

Charm Offensive 

Timetoroe(heavy) 

Baby Jane

Calum Gilhooly 

Mrs Hyde 

Return Ticket(flat track) Entered @ Musselburgh (Nov 23)

Prettylittlething 

Boothill

Al Dancer – Entered@ King George (Dec 26)

Eldorado Allen 

For Pleasure 

Ribble Valley – Entered in the Fighting Fifth,Newcastle (Nov 28)

Shan Blue

Shang Tang

Snow Leopardess 

Marble Sands

Dusart 

Bobby Bow (heavy)

Summerville Boy

Ga Law

Hitman

First Flow

NH HORSES TO FOLLOW/TRADE on SATURDAY:

12-10 HAYDOCK – FLIC OU VOYOU @ 15/8 – 0.25pt -3rd

Backed @ 3.9 : hedged @ 2.86 : P/L = 0

12-40 HAYDOCK – SNOW LEOPARDESS @ 7/1 – 0.25pt -1st

Backed @ 10.0 : hedged 0.15pt@ 6.2  & 0.5pt @ 1.1 & 5pts @ 1.01 : 

P/L = +1.3426pts

Flic ou voyou was making a fist of it on the ground when he clattered the second last and stayed on ok. Not conclusive that he didn’t do the ground and stays on the list for another go I’d say.

Snow Leopardess was simply a sensation after making a shuddering mistake four or five out (not sure exactly which fence because the rain meant I couldn’t see a bloody thing at that point!) but stuck once more to her task and this is a mare I seriously like and we are going to have some top notch fun with. I gave back winnings on the run in with my 1.1 & 1.01 plays but absolutely no regrets. Thought she might just pull up short but she did not. A seriously exciting win!  Well done if you had the faith and decided just to back. You outdid us traders today!

0.01pt Win Treble – LOST 

NH HORSES TO FOLLOW/TRADE on SUNDAY:

2-28 UTTOXETER – SIROBBIE @ 15/2 – 0.25pt BACK

Get the best price that you can and hedge as appropriate and/or when preferential odds appear.

Sirobbie’s mark has gone up 10lbs since his win here in a better race last year but he has his ground and is such a Uttoxeter horse that you wouldn’t rule him out of a very competitive affair. I use same tactic as yesterday in getting best price I can and hedging to leave some scope for further in play trading if possible. 1.1 & 1.01 will again be primed and ready! It could be a close finish.

*******************

LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March  : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April     : – 0.1733 points

May      : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June     : + 0.0428 points

July      : + 0.8046 points 

August :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

October : + 2.1487 points (+7.9028 points)

****************************************************

LIM Scores for November:

1st: +0.049 (+0.049) Lay @ 3.45 : Back @ 8.8

2nd: NO BET

3rd: +0.1543 (+0.2033) Back @ 2.05

4th:  NO BET

5th:  +0.098   (+0.3013) Lay @ 1.98 : Backs @ 9.0 & 51.0

6th:  +0.4312 (+0.7325) Lay @ 3.4 : Backs @ 6.8 & 13.5

7th:  +0.196   (+0.9285) Lays @ 4.0 & 3.35

8th:  +0.098   (+1.0265) Lay @2.1 : Back @ 8.4

9th:  +0.4606 (+1.4871) Lay @ 3.7 : Back @ 4.2

10th: +0.294 (+1.7811) Lay @ 2.04

11th: – 0.364  (+1.4171) Lay @ 2.04

12th: +0.196  (+1.6131) Lay @ 2.0 : Back @ 4.0

13th:  -0.3       (+1.3131) Lay @ 2.2

14th:  +0.147 (+1.4601)  Lay @ 2.24

15th:  +2.5284 (+3.9885) Lay @ 1.86 : Backs @ 6.6 & 25.0

16th:  NON RUNNER

17th:  -0.515   (+3.4735) Lay @ 2.86 : Back @ 13.5

18th:  +0.0735 (+3.547) Lay @ 3.8 : Back @ 6.0

19th:   -0.295   (+3.252) Lay @ 2.18

20th:   +0.343  (+3.595) Lay @ 1.3

21st:   – 0.329  (+3.266) Lay @ 2.86 : Back @ 4.5

*****************************************************

BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +49.8532points

*************************************************

 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 31.1688 points (+11.1688 points)

*************************************************

TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 48.4549 points (+40.4549 points)

*************************************************

OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.3785 points (-0.6215 points)

*************************************************

SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

******************************************

Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

*************************************************

Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

*************************************************

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *