BOZmail – 22nd MAY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

WEDNESDAY MAY 22nd 2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stood at 36.0395 points after month 4

Stands at 40.8925 points after month 5

LESS IS MORE: WEDNESDAY PLAY

6-45 SOUTHWELL

I’ve had a right old wrestle for Wednesday as I begin a mega busy week after which I may be taking a week’s holiday (depending how things go). More on that anon but we have Dee Ex Bee declared for the Henry the 2nd at Sandown Thursday in what promises to be a beezer LIM. Followed closely by the first Cartmel meeting of the year – my local track at which I always specialize – and the start of the French Open tennis. So loads coming your way in the next seven days or so.

I thought we were starting with a double day and the next leg of the staggered acca as I started out with two strong races to put up but my studies have managed to find holes in both of them and instead I play a third race as my LIM.

The discarded races for your interest are the 4.25 at Warwick where I strongly fancy an ex to follow horse – Vosnee Romanee – who ticks most of the boxes and with STD choosing him over McGroarty, who he holds on form, I had thought I was on a pearler.

I can’t find a lay angle into the race however and whilst I was looking at McGroarty as a possible 4/1 lay (bit big for my usual preference) I found that he made a colossal jumping error in the collateral form race with VR and could be a possible to reverse that form. VR’s LTO was a lifetime best behind Altior which I still think might be enough but that same stable entry has me suspecting a sting now and because it is also a highly classy race with Ruth Jefferson’s and others  not easy to rule out, I have decided to swerve it despite thinking VR should still win. Down to 40% though now where I’d been 90% earlier in the day.

I was also keen to take on Jaboticaba in the first at Southwell after Kilcara let their formline down at Stratford Sunday but have watched the horlicks he made of the fence LTO again and am sure he would have won easily with a good jump at the last. The horse was backed to win and whilst that suspect jumping is cause to oppose at odds on, I lost faith when unable to find one I fancied to beat him. Percy Street might but is an unknown over fences and is also quite capable of throwing in a stinker so on balance I think the King horse wins there like as not now. Certainly no longer a fancy for the staggered acca taking him on.

Fortunately I stumbled on a third race when I noticed Apres Le Deluge was running in the third at Southwell. This is another to follow who won with style in his bumper and then went on to run in a couple of decent hurdle races and enters handicapping on a potentially lenient mark. Has to give a bundle of weight to fav Twycross Warrior who has the two negatives in the stable form and having to carry a penalty stakes and is also quite possibly going to be outclassed here as with Apres Le Deluge quite short at 9/4, value in the race lies with Cardigan Bay at 11/2. He struggled to carry his penalty LTO but comes back down in distance here to try replicating a course and distance success. I like the jockey booking here and consider him good LIM cover.

Whilst I’ve been writing however Tuesday’s LIM went west in a race marred by missed out hurdles and a couple of bad falls so I come right down from a potentially big day to a modest play, keeping powder dry for Dee Ex Bee on Thursday.

Recommendation:

0.3pt LAY on TWYCROSS WARRIOR (around 2.5 : no greater than 2.9)

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This month plays so far:

1st:   -0.455 (-0.455) LAY @ 2.82

2nd:  -0.3    (-0.755) LAY @ 1.6

3rd:   -0.628 (-1.383) LAY @ 2.76 : BACK @ 34.0

4th:   -0.8    (-2.183) LAY @ 3.4 : BACK @ 7.0

5th:   +0.095 (-2.088) LAY @ 1.95 : BACK @ 9.0

6th:   -0.3    (-2.388) LAY @ 2.2

7th:   +0.095 (-2.293) LAY @ 1.94 : BACK @ 5.1

8th:   +0.19  (-2.103) BACK @ 1.95

9th:   -0.825  (-2.928) LAY @ 3.25 : BACK @ 8.4

10th: NO PLAY DAY

11th:  +0.195 (-2.733) LAY @ 2.92

12th:  -0.24  (-2.973) LAY @ 1.6

13th:  +0.52 (-2.453) BACK @ 6.2

14th:   -0.25 (-2.703) LAYS @ 3.5 & 3.9 : BACK @ 4.5

15th:   +0.196(-2.507) LAY @ 4.0

16th:   +0.996 (-1.511) Lay @ 2.62 : BACK @ 9.0

17th:   +0.196 (-1.315) Lay @ 5.00

18th:   -0.46 (-1.775) Lay @ 2.24 : BACK @ 11.0

19th:   +2.19 (+0.415) Lay @ 1.56 : BACK @ 17.0  

20th:   +0.145 (+0.56)   Lay @ 3.5 : BACK @ 6.0  

21st:   -0.332 (+0.228) Lay @ 2.66                 

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 104/152 = 68.42% :   BACKS: 26/98 = 26.53%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Get out the Gate

Shoal Bay

Commodore Barry

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

King of Comedy – Entered for St James Palace,Ascot (June 18)

Moonlight Spirit – Entered for the King Edward,Ascot (June 21)

Eightsome Reel

Dee Ex Bee – Entered for Sandown (May 23) & Ascot Gold Cup (June 20)

Sir Dragonet- Entered for King Edward (June 21) & Eclipse (July 6)

Raise You

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 12.3429 points.

Staggered acca number 10: (LEG 5)

Will shout when the next leg emerges.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz

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