BOZmail – 22nd MAY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

FRIDAY MAY 22nd  2020 

*************************************************

 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently standing at 22.3685 points 

*************************************************

TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently standing at 10.4606 points

*************************************************

OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently standing at 4.90 points

*************************************************

BOZmail 2020 cycle current overall profit = +4.7291 points

************************************************************************

LESS IS MORE: 

1-07 DIEPPE

Forget my race reads with this French stuff. Revert to market watching and more importantly the BOZ paddock watching manual. I watched all day but only played two races seriously. Our LIM race in which good old Geny Des Airs saw a fence and threw his handbag at it and landed spoils for the sheet. More importantly though, eagle eyed paddock watchers will have spotted Guyano Bello taking a dump before the off and then bolting in. I got 20/1 on the exchange. Betfair prices on outsiders remains excellent here and it was the second of the day. I got 12/1 after seeing Maktava empty his bowels in the run up to the 12-10 at Deauville. Two in one day!

Best system I ever invented which remains the reason I don’t get an invite to act as pundit on Sky Sports TV! They still laugh at me in the trade. But those at Hexham with me two years ago will verify the level stake stats. Massive plus on horses and not bad on dogs either. Looks like it works even better in France!

Shout if you’ve never read my paddock watching piece and I’ll dig it out for one of the empty days next week. The plan is still to do some course visit days later in the year once they allow us back on the track. Don’t forget to bring your shovel with you! My missus uses it on her allotment!

On to Friday and this race is no Defi Du Seuil style bet as the race read remains tough – not just for being in France but with this lockdown seriously skewing what is going on as you might have imagined. Same sure to apply for a while in the UK when we get going again. I’ll be playing markets at Royal Ascot this year that’s for sure!

No Defi Du Sieul but Hell Boy is very short at around 4/9 on the tissue (no Betfair market up as I write but Live on Sky so I expect it to be covered there or on Betdaq tomorrow). All four opponents can be given a small squeak but Corazones and Flying Startandco are the main two and either of them takes a dump before the off, lump on!

Flying Startanco is the Nicolle second string but has form behind Feu Follet who ran well for us at the weekend. That puts him in this on paper and the stablemate fav does have two negatives in never tried this distance before so unproven at it and has an 81 day lay off to overcome. The latter has been scuppering many a horse in this watch of the French equine action.

Corazones would be my tip were it not for the stable not firing (another factor of this watch) and basically the bet is on whichever of the horses you see off loading his dinner before the tapes go up.Dos Santos hasn’t run for four years but is class so if it’s him, double your stake! The tip is a simple but not unsubstantial lay on the fav given his forecast odds on price.

Recommendation:

0.45pt LAY on HELL BOY (take as low as 1.5 if you can get it and no greater than 1.9)

LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 25/39 = 64.10%  Backs: 9/28 = 32.14%

THE BOZ’s LIM record for May:

16th:  +0.1156  (+0.1156) Lay @ 1.96 : Back @ 8.0 

17th:  – 0.59      (-0.4744) Lay @ 3.7 : Back @ 7.0

18th – 20th:  NO BET

21st:   +0.98     (-0.3944) Lay @ 3.8

***************************************************************************************

LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

April         : –  0.1733 points

May          :  – 0.3944 points   

*******************************************************

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *