BOZmail – 22nd MARCH

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

FRIDAY MARCH 22nd 2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stands at 27.28 points after month 3

LESS IS MORE: FRIDAY PLAY

5-35 NEWBURY

As ever with me, more pleased by the loser I swerved in Ballywood than the winner I found at Sedgefield to keep our run going into its sixth day. And going less is more again Friday as still haven’t found a weapons grade lay worthy of starting a staggered acca. Am continuing looking.

Sticking to LIM bet of the day which I deem to be laying Village Vic in the Hunter Chase at Newbury. No stand out negatives for this talented chaser of his time all of whose recent outings have been at the highest level. Regressive performances though and hasn’t won in three years and wind opped in December 17 with no noticeable success. Purchased by the mega hunter owner/rider David Maxwell who is in fine form alongside the Philip Hobbs’ stable so you could argue a worthy fav.

The two things I take against him though after nearly a year off the track are 1/ the distance. Nothing in his form shows a preference for three miles and most of his running done over less. 2/The other negative is some pretty powerful hunter chasers in opposition with Master Baker,Southfield Vic and Forgotten Gold all worthy opponents quite capable of taking advantage of Vic’s declining years and ring rustiness.

Master Baker has the Hunt form to win this but the time figures and youth advantage for me gives value to a bet on Southfield Vic from the still firing Nicholls yard.Three miles conversely might be a distance to bring out the best in him as stayed with the talented Shantou Flyer for much of the way LTO before last two furlongs found him out. Form paints him as a three miler. He carries my vote to take the LIM winning run into its seventh day.

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on VILLAGE VIC (around 2.5: no greater than 3.0)

0.1pt BACK on SOUTHFIELD VIC

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This month plays so far:

1st: + 0.19   (+0.19)

2nd: + 0.24  (+0.43)

3rd: + 0.2     (+0.63)

4th:  – 0.32   (+0.31) LAY @ 2.1

5th:  +0.19  (+0.5)  LAY @ 3.75

6th:  +1.30  (+1.80) LAY @ 2.99: BACK @ 6.4

7th:   -0.195 (+1.605) LAY @ 1.78

8th:   -0.3125 (+1.2925) LAY @1.65

9th:   +0.19 (+1.4825) LAY @4.2

10th: +0.143 (+1.6255) LAY @ 1.6: BACK @ 8.0

11th:  -0.28  (+1.3455) LAY @ 1.72: BACK @ 11.0

12th:  -0.8   (+0.5455) LAY @ 3.0: BACK @ 65.0

13th:  +5.19 (+5.7355) LAY @ 1.9: BACK @ 51.0

14th:  +0.19 (+5.9255) LAYS @ 3.2 & 4.8

15th:   -0.22 (+5.7055) LAY @1.88

16th:   +0.09 (+5.7955) LAY @ 3.3 : BACK @ 34.0

17th:   +0.994 (+6.7895)LAY @ 2.28 : BACKS @ 2.76 & 8.0

18th:   +1.089 (+7.8785)LAY @ 2.16 : BACK @ 3.75

19th:   +0.24 (+8.1185) LAY @ 3.5

20th:   +0.09 (+8.2085) LAY @ 3.2 : BACK @ 8.0

21st:    +0.24 (+8.4485) LAY @ 1.82

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 69/97 = 71.13% :   BACKS: 16/62 = 25.8%

HORSES OF INTEREST TO TRADE NEXT TIME OUT:

Uno Valoroso

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.5 points.

Staggered acca number 7: (LEG 1)

Will shout as soon as the next good thing comes along.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

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