BOZmail – 22nd JUNE

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

SATURDAY JUNE 22nd  2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stood at 36.0395 points after month 4

Stood at 40.8925 points after month 5

Stands at 43.0503 points after month 6

LESS IS MORE: SATURDAY PLAY

Semi Final Match at Edgbaston

You see now why I wanted to hold out on including Ostapenko in my outrights!

I hadn’t intended to trade on that one and until the footfault fiasco began I didn’t, thinking she was going to cream through. But at a set and 4-0, Martic was on at 20/1 so cost me nothing to green out. And Jelena had already lost one 4-0 lead. When she is in hiatus mode and the service stops working, well everything possible. With the 3 match points at 5-4 second set I got offered 50/1 so again it cost nothing to make Martic a similar winner to what I had started with on an Ostapenko win. I only ever ate into my Ostapenko winnings 0.03points. I should have done more of course but I kept heavily slanted in my head to Ostapenko still winning until she lost the second set. I could see she was wasted then however and levelled it up. Felt very sorry and embarrassed for Jelena really. She does have real problems. Such a sublime game on song. Dreadful when her serve goes. Marvellous for trading on! Could have made much more out of this one and those of you more ruthless traders than me will have done so. I stayed too loyal to Jelena. Hey ho. Still making profit though so I stay with the tennis.

After saying the outsiders were doing well, this was the day for favourites but that meant we had a good result in Goerges making semi as our 22/1 shot. And she will be favourite to win her semi-final against Petra Martic who let’s face it was gifted her win today. She won’t get same generosity from Goerges who could maybe go all the way now. Barty is rightly favourite but she wouldn’t be 8/15 in my book. Goerges beat her at Birmingham last year so the question is how much has Barty improved since then? A fair bit but she still has issues with the big hitters as she showed going 4-1 down against Venus today. I think Goerges will test her so we can be very hopeful about our 22/1. No hedge for me on that yet! And a bit of a top up with a small match bet on Goerges in the semi.

Recommendation:

0.2pt BACK on GOERGES to beat Martic (around 1.66)    

***************************************************

This month plays so far:

8th:      -0.1 (-0.1) Back @ 4.8

9th:   +1.691(+1.591) Lay @ 2.82 : Back @ 6.0

10th: +0.095(+1.686) Lay @ 3.0 : Back @ 3.1

11th:  NON-RUNNER NO PLAY

12th:  +0.34 (+2.026) Half Lay @ 4.4 : Back @ 26.0

             — Whole race played as trade–

13th:   +0.3 (+2.326) Back @ 2.2

14th:   -0.286 (+2.04) Lay @2.24 : Back @11.0

15th:   +0.049(+2.089) Lays @ 3.4 & 4.5 : Back @11.0

16th:    -0.09 (+1.999) Lay @ 1.09

17th:   +0.045(+2.044) Lay @ 2.9 : Backs @ 7.5 & 8.0

18th:    -0.415 (+1.629) Lay @ 2.06 : Back @ 5.3

19th:    +0.49 (+2.119) Lay @ 1.36

20th:    +0.294(+2.413) Lay @ 1.33

21st:   +0.3757(+2.7887) Back @ 2.12 :

           — Whole match played as a two horse back trade —

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 113/169 = 66.86% :   BACKS: 29/109 = 26.60%

*******************************************************

2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS POT TO PLAY WITH AT WIMBLEDON:

Australian Open = +0.283

French Open      = +2.74

Nottingham P/L = Break even

Edgbaston P/L   = +5.4083

Current Total      = +8.4313 points

EDGBASTON REPORT:

My one remaining for the outrights is as follows:

Goerges – 22/1 : Current plus = + 2.2 points or -0.1point loss

**************************************************************************************

SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Get out the Gate

Commodore Barry

Nietzsche

Caius Marcius

*****************************************************

HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel

Dee Ex Bee

Sir Dragonet- Entered for Irish Derby (June 29)

Raise You

Charl Brune

Ocean Paradise

Maydanny

Roseman

Pour Me A Drink

Gold Stick

Light Up Our Stars

*****************************************************

STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10 points.

Staggered acca number 11: (LEG 1)

Will shout when I’m ready to start another go at the acca

***********************************************************

Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *